A lot of goals in the first Saturday night clash of the new season?
The first matchday in the Bundesliga is not stingy with top games. In terms of the championship race in Germany’s top division, the match between Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen certainly deserves special mention. Two top teams duel it out in front of an impressive crowd of over 80,000 spectators at Signal Iduna Park. The last two encounters already offered a lot of spectacle. Football heart, what more could you want?
Although the away teams always had the upper hand in this clash last season, it comes as something of a surprise that odds of over 2.00 are being offered for a home win for the Black and Yellows ahead of the Dortmund vs Leverkusen match. After all, Borussia has always started the new season with an opening win in the last seven seasons. Moreover, the former German champions are traditionally one of the strongest home teams in the country.
Apart from that, it should not go unmentioned, even in the introduction, that the Werkself disgraced themselves to the bone in the DFB Cup the previous week at SV Elversberg, promoted from the third division. After 90 minutes, it was 3:4 from the point of view of the Champions League participants, which impressively proves that the back line around Lukas Hradecky was not fit for the Bundesliga. If nothing changes at the Westfalenstadion, betting on a BVB win between Dortmund and Leverkusen should be the right choice.
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
Borussia Dortmund have undergone the biggest upheaval in many years. Although Erling Haaland is the only player to leave the club who has made a real difference, this departure, combined with the lack of consistency, weighed so heavily that those responsible felt compelled to strengthen the squad in several positions across the board and at the top.
Aki Watzke, Matthias Sammer, Sebastian Kehl and Co. spent almost 100 million euros to bring in Süle, Adeyemi, Özcan, Haller and Schlotterbeck, five players who immediately have starting potential and also bring a certain mentality that Schwarz-Gelb has repeatedly lacked in recent years. The decisive question will now be how long it will take for the team to find its feet and for the first automatisms to take hold?
Coach Edin Terzic, who succeeds Marco Rose and would like to continue where he left off at the end of the 2020/21 season, will play a major role in answering this question. Under the 39-year-old, Borussia not only won the DFB Pokal, but also won all of their final seven Bundesliga games. Should Terzic be able to celebrate another win on his comeback on Saturday, he would equal an old Klopp record. The current Liverpool coach was the only Dortmund coach to date to claim eight consecutive Bundesliga victories. More than ten years later, Malocher Terzic wants to follow in his huge footsteps.
Dortmund for years without any teething problems
There is definitely no lack of confidence and anticipation among the Westphalians. On the one hand, of course, this is due to the well-known newcomers who are to serve as the driving force of a new era. On the other hand, however, it is also due to the very successful start to the competition a week ago in the DFB Pokal at 1860 Munich. On Giesing’s heights in the municipal stadium on Grünwalder Straße, the Black and Yellows didn’t let anything go to waste from the start and laid the foundation for a commanding progress in the first half. In the end, it was 3:0 for the favourites.
Another positive aspect is the aforementioned statistic that BVB have always won the first match in the past seven seasons. A whopping twelve of the last 14 opening matches have ended in a Dortmund success. It is interesting to note that the only two defeats came against the upcoming opponents from Leverkusen.
To prevent such a scenario from happening again, the reigning runners-up are relying on their proven home strength. In 2021/22, they had the upper hand in 13 of 17 home games. The 52 goals scored at home were also the best of all Bundesliga teams. In eleven cases, a bet on the over 3.5 would have gone through. On Saturday, too, we prefer a prediction of at least four goals in the match between Dortmund and Leverkusen. In what is expected to be a lively exchange of blows between two offensively strong teams, Terzic will have to do without Haller, Passlack, Rothe and Süle. Ajanji and Schulz no longer play a role in the BVB coach’s plans and are to be sold.
Predicted line-up of Dortmund:
Kobel – Meunier, Hummels, N. Schlotterbeck, Guerreiro – Dahoud, Bellingham – Reus – Malen, Moukoko, Adeyemi
Last matches played by Dortmund:
Friendly club matches
30/07/2022 – Borussia Dortmund 1 – 1 Antalyaspor
DFB Cup
30/07/2022 – 1860 Munich 0 – 3 Borussia Dortmund
Friendly club matches
22/07/2022 – Borussia Dortmund 0 – 2 FC Villarreal
18/07/2022 – Borussia Dortmund 1 – 3 Valencia
14/07/2022 – SC Verl 0 – 5 Borussia Dortmund
Leverkusen – Statistics & current form
How badly can a team spank the start of the new season in competitive matches? Bayer Leverkusen: YES. The Rhinelanders lost 3:4 at SV Elversberg the previous week and had to endure gloating and ridicule afterwards. No wonder, because the CL participants not only lost to last year’s Regionalliga Südwest champions, but also conceded four goals (!) in regulation time. Embarrassing!
It will be interesting to see on Saturday whether this was just a nasty slip-up or whether coach Gerardo Seoane will indeed have to work persistently on his defence in the coming weeks. The fact is that Moussa Diaby, Patrik Schick and Co. love attacking football more than working against the ball. This was also evident last year, when the mark of at least four goals was broken in more than half of all matches involving Bayer.
Leverkusen on course for redemption
Because the team has hardly changed at the core and has added a highly talented attacker in Adam Hlozek, it cannot be assumed that the Seoane eleven will show a completely different face in 2022/23. As a result, the odds on extra goals in the top match between Dortmund and Leverkusen must be placed on the betting slip.
The fact that the Rhinelanders were the most dangerous team last season when it came to scoring on the counterattack gives hope for a positive result. 13 goals after quick attacks were the best. This was precisely one of BVB’s major weaknesses, as they conceded seven goals of this kind. In any case, the Werkself can be expected to score a goal at Signal Iduna Park. Should both teams even score in the first half, a 2.90 can be gambled on at BildBet.
The long-term injured Adli and Florian Wirtz are still out indefinitely. While the former is already in rehabilitation training, Germany’s biggest talent is currently undergoing rehab. Otherwise, however, all the men are on board, so coach Seoane is spoilt for choice. It is quite possible that there will be some changes compared to the cup match in Saarland.
Predicted Leverkusen line-up:
Hradecky – Frimpong, Tah, Tapsoba, Hincapie – Andrich, Demirbay – Bellarabi, Azmoun, Diaby – Schick
Last matches played by Leverkusen:
DFB Cup
30/07/2022 – Elversberg 4 – 3 Bayer Leverkusen
Friendly club matches
21/07/2022 – Udinese 1 – 2 Bayer Leverkusen
17/07/2022 – Bayer Leverkusen 0 – 0 Panathinaikos
09/07/2022 – Bayer Leverkusen 6 – 1 MSV Duisburg
18/05/2022 – Toluca 1 – 0 Bayer Leverkusen
Dortmund – Leverkusen Direct comparison / H2H balance
These two clubs have already met 86 times in Germany’s top division. Borussia Dortmund leads the direct comparison with 34 victories. Leverkusen, however, have also achieved 30 victories, while 22 draws round off the overall tally. Far more interesting than the historical figures, however, is a look at the most recent duels.
Last season, as mentioned, the visiting team came out on top in each case. In Dortmund, the Werkself won 5:2, in the BayArena, BVB had the upper hand with 4:3. Seven goals were scored on both occasions. In any case, bets on over 3.5 would have gone through in eight of the last nine encounters. In total, 47 goals were scored in these nine matches, i.e. an average of more than five goals per match. It should be clear by now at the latest that the fans will get their money’s worth at Signal Iduna Park on Saturday evening from 6:30 p.m.
Dortmund – Leverkusen Tip
Frankfurt against Bayern, Union Berlin against Hertha and Dortmund against Leverkusen. The first matchday of the 60th Bundesliga season has it all right from the start. At the old Westfalenstadion, two strongly rated teams from the extended circle of title favourites will clash. While hardly a stone was left unturned at BVB in the summer, Leverkusen did not change much in terms of personnel. That this is not always an advantage, however, became clear the previous week when the Werkself was eliminated from the first main round of the DFB Cup in Elversberg.
Borussia, on the other hand, left a very mature and advanced impression on the Munich Lions. If they can confirm this at the weekend, the betting odds on a home win in the Dortmund vs. Leverkusen clash are definitely a recommendable betting option. Especially considering that Schwarz-Gelb have won their opening match in the Bundesliga seven times in a row and also have seven league wins in a row under Edin Terzic.
Between Dortmund and Leverkusen, we have opted for an alternative tip. With six units, we play the odds of 2.00 on at least four goals in the course of the match. In the last nine direct duels, these teams have scored a whopping 47 goals; in the pre-season alone, there were seven goals in the first and second legs. The offensive approach of the coaches will be the dominant factor on Saturday. And who knows, maybe this weekend will give us a first hint of who can succeed Lewandowski as the Bundesliga’s top goalscorer.
