Does BVB’s year-end record remain unblemished?
Borussia Dortmund’s winning streak held up in their first international appearance on Wednesday night in the Champions League.
Thanks to a fortunate 1-0 win over well-performing Blues from London, BVB are now on a competition-wide run of seven wins from seven competitive matches in 2023 football.Of course, that run should continue again on Sunday.
Before the Dortmund vs. Hertha match, betting on the next success of the Black and Yellows is likely to be the first option for many neutral football fans. From a betting perspective, the three-way market is nevertheless not advisable in view of the too low and thus not value-promising odds. Therefore, it definitely needs a bit more creativity to be able to push the prices up a bit in the second of the three Sunday matches.
Apart from that, the visitors from the capital should not be completely underestimated. After all, coach Sandro Schwarz’s team returned to winning ways in the previous week with a 4:1 home victory against Borussia Mönchengladbach and gained a lot of new self-confidence in the process.
However, there has rarely been anything worthwhile against the other Borussia in the recent past, so it makes less sense to predict a surprise coup for the old lady between Dortmund and Hertha.
Dortmund – statistics & current form
Mentality and attitude have been the two words used inflationarily at Borussia Dortmund in recent years. Mostly, however, with a negative connotation. The black-and-yellows often lacked the necessary ambition or the will to do everything for success.
In February 2023, there is no longer any sign of this kind of problem. In the aforementioned 1-0 home win against Chelsea, the BVB defence threw itself into every duel, impressed with its outstanding readiness and ultimately had the luck of the fittest on its side. The quarter-finals in the top flight have moved a good deal closer, although the task at Stamford Bridge at the beginning of March will certainly not be any easier.
Of all things, the much-maligned BVB defence stands out
Despite this, it is noticeable that the Terzic eleven has developed a certain self-conception to get even tight games over time. Four of the total of seven victories after the winter break came with exactly one goal difference. Therefore, anyone who had the idea of playing a handicap bet in favour of Borussia should perhaps consider the odds on the Asian handicap for Dortmund’s upcoming home match against Hertha, as the possibility of a narrow home victory is better covered.
However, it is also clear that the Westphalians must aim for a commanding home victory on Sunday and thus keep the pressure on Bayern in the race for the championship high. In addition to the momentum, the home advantage also speaks in favour of the Black and Yellows. Seven of the nine home games so far have been won.
Terzic can rotate through the team
Three of those seven victories at home were 1:0. Four times there was even a defensive zero. Over the whole season, BVB’s back line has kept eight clean sheets – the best record in the Bundesliga! Reason enough to combine the favourites’ victory with the Under 4.5 at the weekend or to go for another “to-nil” victory.
There will definitely be some changes in terms of personnel. Several supplementary players such as Reus, Malen, Reyna, Ryerson or Hummels did not play at all or only briefly against Chelsea and are now of course welcome options in terms of load control. In general, the squad width is currently a big plus for Edin Terzic, who can already look back on ten wild card goals with his men. This is also the best figure of all 18 first division teams.
Last matches played by Dortmund:
Champions League Final
16/02/2023 – Borussia Dortmund 1 – 0 FC Chelsea
Bundesliga
11/02/2023 – Werder Bremen 0 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
DFB Cup
09/02/2023 – VfL Bochum 1 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
Bundesliga
04/02/2023 – Borussia Dortmund 5 – 1 SC Freiburg
29/01/2023 – Bayer Leverkusen 0 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
Hertha – Statistics & current form
Unexpected often comes. True to these mottos, Hertha from Berlin shot themselves out of the crisis last weekend. After four defeats in the first four Bundesliga games after the winter break, the old lady defeated Gladbach 4:1 in front of a home crowd, but benefited from a very weak performance by the Foals, who simply stopped playing football at any level after the 1:0 lead.
Against this background, it remains to be seen what this eminently important victory was worth in view of the coming weeks. We wouldn’t go too far out on a limb just yet and only conditionally believe that it was the final chest burster for the Black Eleven.
Hertha’s building sites are not diminishing
Aggravatingly, the Herthaner took 13 of their total 17 points in front of a home crowd. Away from home, things are not going well at all for last year’s relegation team, which is currently in 16th place. They have lost all of their last five BL matches away from home. Only Schalke and Bochum have scored fewer goals in their opponents’ stadiums than the blue and white team from the capital.
The weakness in defensive standards is also worrying. 16 goals conceded from stationary balls are the second worst in the league. Against Dortmund, who have recently been very dangerous from corner kicks and free kicks, this aspect of the game could well play a major role. Not least because of this assessment, we pay no further attention to the odds between Dortmund and Hertha on a point win for the visitors.
Last matches played by Hertha:
Bundesliga
12/02/2023 – Hertha BSC 4 – 1 Gladbach
04/02/2023 – Eintracht Frankfurt 3 – 0 Hertha BSC
28/01/2023 – Hertha BSC 0 – 2 Union Berlin
25/01/2023 – Hertha BSC 0 – 5 VfL Wolfsburg
21/01/2023 – VfL Bochum 3 – 1 Hertha BSC
Dortmund – Hertha Direct comparison / H2H balance
Borussia Dortmund have won almost exactly half of all first division matches against Hertha so far (34 out of 71). Accordingly, the balance is clearly in favour of the Black and Yellows, who have also won seven of the last eight encounters against the Berliners in the top flight.
It is also impressive that BVB have only failed to score once in 35 BL home games against the old lady – in a 0-0 draw in December 1969. The Westphalians have now won 31 BL home games in a row with at least one goal against the capital club. The first leg ended 1:0 for the Ballspielverein. Tony Modeste scored the winning goal.
Dortmund – Hertha Tip
The signs before Sunday’s match between Dortmund and Hertha seem clear. Betting odds of just 1.35 on the home win underline the pronounced role of favourites for the black and yellows, who are desperate to continue their outstanding run of success. All five Bundesliga games were won after the break. Across all competitions, there were even seven victories in seven attempts in 2023. BVB is brimming with confidence at the moment.
In terms of quality, Borussia is also clearly stronger than the old lady from the capital. Add to that the fact that the Berliners have lost all of their last five league matches, have lost seven of their last eight direct duels against BVB and have had great problems defending defensive standards throughout the entire season.
