Does BVB jump to the top of the table for one night?

Two matchdays have been completed in the still young Bundesliga season and yet there are already the first real upsets. For example, the meaningful interview of Julian Brandt after the weak 1:1 in Bochum, which caused high waves, but in terms of content transported exactly what even BVB fans had perceived in the first two matches. The reigning runner-up looks tired, plays lethargic soccer and has therefore disappointed all along the line so far.

The latter statement sounds somewhat macabre in light of the fact that the Black and Yellows nevertheless picked up four points and can even temporarily take over the top spot in the table on Friday night, but it primarily refers to the sobering performances of Terzic’s eleven. Nevertheless, between Dortmund and Heidenheim, the tip on the home side will probably again find a place on many betting slips.

The justification is debatable in any case, especially since Dortmund’s home win against Heidenheim only brings odds of 1.25 at most on the three-way market. Value definitely doesn’t seem to be there.

However, despite all the justified criticism of BVB, it should not be forgotten that 1. FCH, a promoted team, is now traveling to the west, which has yet to score a point and completely squandered a 2-0 lead in the final phase of the previous week. Are the men from the Ostalb – provocatively asked – just the right opponent for Emre Can and Co. to build up against?

Dortmund – statistics & current form

Borussia Dortmund’s statistics in the current calendar year continue to read quite outstanding. Out of 21 Bundesliga games in 2023, BVB has lost just one. Moreover, the Black and Yellows have not lost in ten league games. That, in turn, equates to the second-longest streak since the start of the 2018/19 season under Lucien Favre, when Borussia actually went undefeated 15 times in a row.

The numbers are one thing, the impressions so far are another. Both in the home match against Cologne, when a late goal by Donyell Malen after a standard situation made the difference (1:0), and in Bochum, where the Terzic eleven had to settle for a 1-1 draw almost befitting the occasion, there was not much to be seen of the enthusiasm, passion, scoring power and mentality from the second half of the previous season. Especially in terms of fitness, the runners-up still seem to have a lot of room for improvement, the actually targeted high tempo can not be gone over 90 minutes so far.

Dortmund lags behind the claims so far

BVB will get another shot to break free and build confidence ahead of the upcoming international break on Friday night. Then, too, between Dortmund and Heidenheim, the forecast for the home side’s victory as favorites is once again seen as far more likely. No wonder, after all, Schwarz-Gelb not only won twelve of the last 13 home games in the Bundesliga, but at the same time is also unbeaten for 33 games in front of a home crowd, which took place on Friday evenings (25 wins, 8 draws).

However, this medal also has a flip side, as no other Bundesliga team has conceded more home defeats to promoted teams than Borussia Dortmund (6) since the start of the 2020/21 season. Apart from that, the team’s own defense was not particularly solid at times.

Cologne remained without a goal despite some good scoring chances, but both the regional league team Schott Mainz in the cup, as well as Bochum a week ago marked a goal. Therefore, if you are aiming for a bet on Friday night that both teams will score in the first match of the third BL matchday, you can play solid odds of 1.80 at Interwetten between Dortmund and Heidenheim.

Predicted lineup of Dortmund:

Borussia Dortmund (Expected lineup) 4-2-3-1

Heidenheim – statistics & current form

It was all set! For the first time in the club’s history, a Bundesliga home match was on the agenda for 1. FC Heidenheim. The guests were TSG Hoffenheim, who had also started with a defeat. At first, it actually looked like it was going to be a perfect afternoon for Frank Schmidt and his charges, but the promoted team squandered what it thought was a 2-0 lead in the final quarter of an hour and ultimately lost 3-2.

On the positive side, it was certainly worth pointing out that the Blue and Red Whites can hold their own at this national first division level. The bottom line, however, was the frustration over the completely unnecessary defeat, which will certainly still be in the minds of the players on Friday evening. For this reason, among others, we can well imagine that the men from the Ostalb will not start the game optimally and possibly “sleep through” the first half in the witch’s cauldron that is Signal Iduna Park.

Unconcerned, wild Heidenheimers want to annoy BVB

By the way, the very vulnerable defense, which now stands at five goals conceded after two match days, also speaks in favor of this. As a reminder, Heidenheim had already lost their first away game this season in Wolfsburg with 0:2. Both goals were conceded in the opening phase. In the previous season, the South Germans were already far more susceptible away from home than at home. Only seven of 17 away games in the 2nd Bundesliga were victorious.

We are therefore skeptical as to whether the Blue-Red-Whites will be able to take anything worthwhile away from the Ruhrpott, but definitely trust the Schmidt eleven to score a goal. In the first two match days, the 1st FCH scored twice as many goals as their upcoming opponents.

Moreover, it is not the approach of Ostalb legend Frank Schmidt to hide and focus exclusively on working against the ball. Especially in front of this great backdrop, the promoted team will play boldly forward. Therefore, in addition to the already suggested bet on goals from both teams, the Dortmund vs. Heidenheim odds on at least two goals in the first 45 minutes are also of great interest.

Predicted lineup of Heidenheim:

FC Heidenheim (Expected lineup) 4-1-3-2

Dortmund – Heidenheim direct comparison / H2H balance

The direct comparison is quickly dealt with. On Friday evening, it comes to the first meeting of these two clubs at the level of mandatory matches. So far, Heidenheim has only faced Borussia Dortmund’s reserves, losing just one of six encounters (three wins, two draws).

Dortmund – Heidenheim tip

As the first Bundesliga debutants since Energie Cottbus in 2000, 1. FC Heidenheim started the Oberhaus adventure with two defeats. On Friday evening, the third defeat in the third match now threatens, although a curious statistic should give hope to the fans of the Swabians. The last two BL debutants from Hoffenheim and Leipzig celebrated the first Bundesliga win in their history against BVB, of all…

However, this has no influence on the Dortmund vs. Heidenheim betting odds for the third matchday. The black-and-yellows are treated as house-high favorites and that although they have not been convincing so far. The leading betting providers nevertheless expect the reigning runners-up to make a break for it on Friday and possibly even record a clear home victory with a difference of two goals or more in front of their home crowd.

We are not quite so sure about this matter and refer to the sobering performances against Cologne as well as Bochum. Borussia also found it extremely difficult against newcomers in the past, even in front of a home crowd.

Therefore, our preferred approach is to refrain from betting on the outcome of the match and instead bet on at least two goals being scored in the first 45 minutes. Between Dortmund and Heidenheim, this tip is quoted with a solid 2.02, which we play with five units.