Will the BVB Stadium remain a red rag for Freiburg?
The top match of the 19th matchday in the Bundesliga is already on the agenda this time on Friday evening. The second-placed team from Dortmund receives the fourth-placed team from Freiburg. On paper, we can expect a very interesting match, even though history suggests that there is a clear favourite. After all, the Black and Yellows only lost one of their 21 home games against the Sport-Club in the Bundesliga and instead picked up a whopping 17 wins!
This impressive 81% win rate from the home side’s point of view is certainly one of the reasons why far lower odds are being offered on another home win between Dortmund and Freiburg.
Despite the proven home strength of the Rose eleven this season, the guests from the beautiful Breisgau should not be underestimated. Coach Christian Streich’s team has played an excellent round so far, has the best defence in the Bundesliga together with Bayern and has recently defeated Borussia twice in a row. These factors must also be taken into account when predicting the outcome of the match between Dortmund and Freiburg.
Dortmund – statistics & current form
Everyone involved agreed last Saturday evening that Dortmund’s 3-2 away win in Frankfurt could have a signalling effect for Borussia’s upcoming tasks. The black-and-yellows offered an anaemic performance until the middle of the second half, were deservedly trailing 0:2 and only came to a lucky connection through a “goal out of nowhere”. After that, however, the Rose team took the initiative and turned the deficit into an emotional victory, which shrank the gap to leaders Bayern to six points.
Nevertheless, the first 45 minutes must also be discussed, in which once again the defence around the improvised central defence Hummels/Can was a cause for concern. In three of the past five Bundesliga games, Dortmund conceded at least two goals. In the entire course of the season so far, only two clean sheets have been scored. Eight other first division teams have conceded fewer than 28 goals to the reigning cup winners.
Matches involving BVB are often hotly contested
Because in 15 of BVB’s 18 league games the bet on both sides to score would have gone through, it makes sense to bet on “both sides to score” on Friday night between Dortmund and Freiburg. In six of the eight home victories in the current season alone, the respective opponents have still managed to score.
Statistically, it is anything but unlikely that coach Marco Rose’s team will celebrate a three-goal win at the start of matchday 19. On the one hand, this assessment is based on the aforementioned outstanding home record against the SCF. On the other hand, no other team has collected more points at home than BVB in 2021/22. In fact, twelve of the last 13 Bundesliga games were won at Signal Iduna Park.
Another positive aspect is that the personnel situation is slowly easing. With Coulibaly, Morey and Schmelzer, only supplementary players are not available. On the other hand, Zagadou and Reyna have returned to the squad. The former could replace Emre Can in the centre of defence, especially as Manuel Akanji is not yet a potential starter.
Dortmund’s likely line-up:
Kobel – Meunier, Can, Hummels, Guerreiro – Bellingham, Dahoud – Brandt, Reus, T. Hazard – Haaland
Last matches played by Dortmund:
1st Bundesliga
01/08 2022 – Eintracht Frankfurt 2 – 3 Borussia Dortmund
12/18 2021 – Hertha Berlin 3 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
12/15 2021 – Borussia Dortmund 3 – 0 Greuther Fürth
12/11 2021 – Vfl Bochum 1 – 1 Borussia Dortmund
Champions League Grp. C
12/07 2021 – Borussia Dortmund 5 – 0 Beşiktaş
Freiburg – Statistics & current form
For SC Freiburg, the start of the new football year 2022 did not go as planned last weekend. In the home match against Arminia Bielefeld, the Breisgauer were still 2-0 up shortly after the break, but the East Westphalians hit back with two goals in which keeper Uphoff, who will also replace Mark Flekken who tested positive at the weekend, did not really look good. So in the end it was 2:2, with which the Sport-Club even dropped one place in the standings.
Despite the aforementioned two goals conceded against the relegation candidates, the defence continues to be the absolute showpiece of coach Christian Streich’s team. No other club has conceded fewer goals during the season than the Black Forest side, who have also kept their clean sheet away from home twice in a row. Should they do the same on Friday night, it would be the first time since 2001 that the SCF have gone three consecutive Bundesliga matches without conceding a goal.
Stable defence & dangerous standards as X-factors
Even though the defence will in all likelihood not hold the zero this time, the odds on a surprise should at least be called between Dortmund and Freiburg. After all, the Breisgauers have picked up 15 of their 30 points away from home, making them the second-best away team behind the record champions from Munich. They scored 15 goals in their opponents’ stadiums – a figure that is also only topped by four other Bundesliga teams.
Vicenzo Grifo and Co. only scored three times away from home; all three games ended 0-0, i.e. with a result that we can virtually rule out completely for next Friday.
Speaking of Grifo: The Italian international is also largely responsible for the fact that the men from the Dreisam have already scored 16 goals from resting balls. This is also the absolute top score in the league and could also be a weapon against BVB, who traditionally have their problems in this area.
Predicted line-up of Freiburg:
Uphoff – Kübler, Lienhart, Gulde, Günter – Haberer, Höfler – Sallai, Jeong, Grifo – Höler
Last matches played by Freiburg:
1st Bundesliga
01/08 2022 – SC Freiburg 2 – 2 Arminia Bielefeld
12/19 2021 – SC Freiburg 2 – 1 Bayer Leverkusen
12/15 2021 – Union Berlin 0 – 0 SC Freiburg
12/11 2021 – SC Freiburg 1 – 2 Hoffenheim
12/05 2021 – Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 – 6 SC Freiburg
Dortmund – Freiburg Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
BVB have won 27 of their 43 Bundesliga encounters against Freiburg. At home, as already noted, the record is even more impressive from the Black-Yellow’s point of view. 17 wins, three draws and only one defeat mean that the direct comparison clearly points in the direction of the cup winners. BUT: The most recent two direct duels went to the SCF, including the first leg, which the Sport-Club won 2-1.
Dortmund – Freiburg Tip
We can already look forward to an interesting Bundesliga top match on Friday evening. Dortmund will meet Freiburg. According to the betting odds, the host is clearly favoured, too clearly in our eyes. Although BVB has not had such a good record against any other club in front of a home crowd in the history of the Bundesliga, the cards will naturally be reshuffled before the opening match of matchday 19.
Sport-Club have played a fantastic season so far, losing only two of their nine games away from home. Coupled with the most stable defence in the league and the enormous danger of scoring goals from set-pieces, Streich’s team can also pose major problems for the supposed favourites. Consequently, it is not our first option to make a prediction on the outcome of the match between Dortmund and Freiburg.
Instead, we think it is extremely likely that both teams will score. BVB have only scored twice in 2021/22, while Breisgau have only failed to score on four occasions. That’s why we’re betting on both teams to score in the Dortmund vs. Freiburg clash, and we’re getting a 1.65 tip at Bwin for that.
