Will BVB take advantage of Chelsea’s lack of form?
Four German teams are still in the UEFA Champions League round of 16. On paper, Borussia Dortmund may even have drawn the “easiest” draw with Chelsea Football Club.
While Bayern have brutally tough tasks ahead of them in Paris St Germain, RB Leipzig in Manchester City and Frankfurt’s Eintracht in Napoli’s hurrah football, the Black and Yellows will be hoping to make their third CL quarter-final in the last seven seasons against the struggling Blues from London.
A look at the results so far in the 2023 calendar year shows that these hopes are definitely well-founded. Borussia are currently going from victory to victory at national level, winning all six of their competitive matches after the winter break.
Coach Graham Potter’s side, meanwhile, have only managed to win two of their last twelve inter-competition matches and are therefore still in a deep slump. If you think the Bundesliga side can take advantage of this on Wednesday evening, you can get top odds of 2.45 on a Dortmund vs. Chelsea home win.
This is the first time the two former Cup winners have ever faced each other in the European Cup. The direct comparison between Dortmund and Chelsea therefore does not influence the forecast at all, although from a German point of view it must be stated with a warning finger that BVB has actually not been able to win any of the past ten international matches against English teams.
That should change at home, because if they fail to win the first leg, it would complicate the situation for the second leg at Stamford Bridge on 7 March.
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
Borussia Dortmund have been the big winners of German football in 2023 so far, with coach Edin Terzic’s side celebrating five wins in their first five games in the Bundesliga after the winter break. The Black and Yellows have thus moved up to third place in the standings and are back in the race for the championship trophy. In addition, exactly one week ago they reached the quarter-finals of the DFB Cup against VfL Bochum.
The mood at the Ballspielverein could hardly be better. Self-confidence is at a real season high and the fact that the coach is currently spoilt for choice in many positions as to who he brings in from the start is boosting performance and having a positive effect on the results of recent weeks.
Is the BVB defence as focused as it has been in the Bundesliga lately?
At the weekend, during the away win in Bremen, it became clear that the defence has improved considerably. After all, BVB has already kept its clean sheet twice after the turn of the year. Only FC Augsburg conceded more than one goal to Gregor Kobel. In the group phase of the top flight, BVB kept a clean sheet against FC Copenhagen and Manchester City.
However, because the Black and Yellows have put in varied defensive performances throughout the season and are always good for at least one goal themselves, it makes sense to check the odds on goals for both teams in the first leg between Dortmund and Chelsea. Currently, these are in the range of 1.70.
Sebastien Haller is statistically better than Erling Haaland
But apart from a bet on the goal market, we are also not averse to betting on a home win for Sebastien Haller and Co. BVB have lost only four of their last 21 home games in Europe’s most important club competition, will also face a rather in-form opponent and also have the aforementioned Haller in their own ranks, who has already made history in the Champions League.
No other player has scored more goals in his first eight matches in the top flight than the Ivorian. On Wednesday, the ex-Frankfurt player will make his CL debut in the black and yellow kit. We can be curious and are even inclined to bet on Haller as the goal scorer. After all, he scored a goal every 61 minutes in this competition. Even a certain Erling Haaland can’t top this impressive figure.
Last matches of Dortmund:
Bundesliga
11/02/2023 – Werder Bremen 0 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
DFB Cup
09/02/2023 – VfL Bochum 1 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
Bundesliga
04/02/2023 – Borussia Dortmund 5 – 1 SC Freiburg
29/01/2023 – Bayer Leverkusen 0 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
26/01/2023 – Mainz 05 1 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
Chelsea – Statistics & current form
Perhaps the last time Chelsea Football Club will travel to a Champions League away game in 2023 is on Wednesday. If the Blues, after all title holders in the 2020/21 season, do indeed lose out to BVB after the first and second legs, this could even be their last visit to the top flight for the foreseeable future.
The fact is that the Blues are unlikely to make it into the top four in the Premier League. Even in terms of Europe or the Conference League, the capital club has already clearly fallen behind. The full focus in the coming weeks will therefore be on the Champions League. It is precisely this mentality of a battered boxer, who may even be somewhat underestimated, that could make Borussia’s task in the last 16 more difficult.
Does Chelsea rely too much on individual class?
But part of the whole truth is that in the weeks following the 2022 World Cup, the Londoners did not even begin to give the impression of having a stable and functioning collective. Quite the opposite. Under Graham Potter, who is also being criticised as Tuchel’s successor, there have only been two meagre victories in the last twelve competitive games. In the Premier League, the Blues even have only two three-pointers from the past 13 games.
These worrying statistics naturally serve as an argument to consider the odds on a home win between Dortmund and Chelsea. Nevertheless, the aforementioned coach Potter has not yet lost in the Champions League with his team. They have won four games and drawn one. The pressure is now completely different, however, because the two round of 16 matches against the third-placed team in the Bundesliga will probably decide the future of the former Brighton coach.
Qualitatively, the Blues are of course a dangerous opponent, although the prominent winter additions Mudryk, Fernandez or Joao Felix have so far only been able to make their mark on the Chelsea game to a limited extent. The problems are fundamental, automatisms are missing, confidence is down and there are hiccups at both ends of the field. It remains to be seen whether the English can flip the famous switch at Signal Iduna Park from one moment to the next. We don’t necessarily believe so.
Last Chelsea games:
Premier League
11/02/2023 – West Ham 1 – 1 Chelsea FC
04/02/2023 – Chelsea FC 0 – 0 Fulham
21/01/2023 – Liverpool FC 0 – 0 Chelsea FC
15/01/2023 – Chelsea FC 1 – 0 Crystal Palace
13/01/2023 – Fulham 2 – 1 Chelsea FC
Dortmund – Chelsea Direct comparison / H2H balance
As already mentioned, this is the first time this clash has taken place at must-win level. However, perhaps the cross-comparison will help a little. Dortmund have been waiting for a win against clubs from England for ten games. Chelsea, however, have also only won three of their last ten away games in Germany.
However, as this data is based solely on history, it has no influence on our Dortmund vs. Chelsea prediction for Wednesday. More exciting is the fact that international Kai Havertz has never scored in seven personal duels with BVB. Against no other club in the world has the striker had such a dry spell.
Dortmund – Chelsea Tip
While Arsenal and Manchester City duel in the Premier League for important points in the English title fight, Chelsea Football Club, who have nothing whatsoever to do with the championship race on the island, go to the venerable Westfalenstadion in the Champions League.
Knowing full well that a draw at the in-form third-placed team in the Bundesliga would already be a respectable success, which would put them in a good position for the second leg at the beginning of March, the Blues are nevertheless being treated as razor-thin underdogs. Before the first leg Dortmund vs. Chelsea, the betting odds on a home win for the black and yellow are somewhat lower. Rightly so, after all, BVB have won all six of their competitive matches in the 2023 calendar year, while the Blues are on two wins from their past twelve inter-competitive matches.
The home advantage combined with the contrasting form curves and the fact that Borussia have a lot of confidence after recent performances are all reasons why we are also pushing for the home win bet between Dortmund and Chelsea.
