Will Bochum win the little Revierderby again?
Borussia Dortmund fans will be very reluctant to remember their team’s last two clashes against VfL Bochum.
Last season, the men from the Ruhr picked up a remarkable four points out of six, including a 4:3 victory at Signal Iduna Park. No other club scored more goals against the Black and Yellows in 2021/22 than the small neighbour from the Pot.
It seems unlikely, however, that VfL will score again at the football temple of the reigning runners-up.
This is confirmed between Dortmund and Bochum by the odds for the bet on an away win, which top out at 12.00. By comparison, even Germany winning the title at the upcoming 2022 World Cup currently only brings an 11.00 with many providers.
With a view to Bochum’s previous away performances, however, the one-sided odds distribution comes as anything but a surprise. The second-last team in the table has lost all of its away games this season and has already conceded a total of 19 goals.
In the four most recent attempts away from home, they have always conceded at least four goals. Therefore, before the small Ruhr derby Dortmund vs. Bochum, one may also envisage a confident home victory for the Terzic eleven.
Dortmund – statistics & current form
Somehow you can’t really figure out Borussia Dortmund this season. At times, it becomes clear what incredible potential the Black and Yellows have at their disposal. Then again, the BVB falls back into old patterns, has massive lacks of concentration in defence and sometimes even lacks the necessary attitude. Detailed and verified explanations are still limited in this respect.
From a purely statistical point of view, however, it can be stated that the probability of Borussia showing its good face in front of a home crowd is higher than away from home. While Borussia have won four of their six home games in the current Bundesliga season (one draw, one defeat), the 2-1 victory at Eintracht Frankfurt the previous week was their first away win after three defeats in a row. Moreover, it came about under very fortunate circumstances.
BVB want to repeat the performance from the game against Stuttgart
On a positive note, BVB have always managed to score at least one goal in their last 40 (!) Bundesliga home games and have also recorded more points (six) and scored more goals (seven) in the last two matchdays than in the previous five games in Germany’s top division (four points, five goals). If Terzic’s team continues its upward trend on Saturday afternoon, odds of only 1.25 are offered on a home win between Dortmund and Bochum.
Therefore, an addition is needed to push the odds up a bit. It would be conceivable to bet on a home win with at least two goals, although such a bet would only have gone through in the 5:0 against Stuttgart a fortnight ago at Signal Iduna Park.
It therefore makes more sense to bet on the double HT1/FT1 result. In four of the total of seven victories this season, BVB already led at the break. Only Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Bayern have a better record in the first 45 minutes than Mats Hummels and Co.
In terms of personnel, those responsible for the fourth-placed team in the table are longing for the winter break. In addition to Sebastien Haller, who is suffering from cancer, Bynoe-Gittens, Dahoud, Meunier and Morey are also out for the long term. With youngster Rother and Marius Wolf, two more outside back alternatives have recently joined the lazaretto. At least there is hope that Reus and Guerreiro will return to the team. Modeste would be an alternative to Moukoko as a target player.
Projected line-up of Dortmund:
Kobel – Süle, Hummels, N. Schlotterbeck, T. Hazard – Bellingham, Özcan – Adeyemi, Brandt, Reyna – Moukoko
Last matches played by Dortmund:
Champions League Grp. G
03/11/2022 – FC Copenhagen 1 – 1 Borussia Dortmund
Bundesliga
29/10/2022 – Eintracht Frankfurt 1 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
Champions League Grp. G
26/10/2022 – Borussia Dortmund 0 – 0 Manchester City
Bundesliga
22/10/2022 – Borussia Dortmund 5 – 0 VfB Stuttgart
DFB Cup
19/10/2022 – Hannover 96 0 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
Bochum – Statistics & current form
Thomas Letsch has noticeably changed the way VfL Bochum play. Since his first match on matchday eight, only Union Berlin have more pressing sequences to show than the kickers from the Ruhr. While the aggressive and courageous approach in front of the home crowd has certainly borne fruit and the relegation candidates have twice in a row gained the upper hand against Frankfurt (3:0) and Union Berlin (2:1), the ex-coach of Vitesse Arnhem has not yet got a grip on his away phobia.
All six away games so far have been lost by the penultimate-placed team. For only the second time since 1994/95, the Blue and Whites are still without a point after the first six games away from home. The goal difference of 4:19 also shows that the defeats have usually been very clear.
Will Bochum be shown the limits again away from home?
In fact, VfL lost four of the six away games mentioned with at least a two-goal difference. On average, the margin of victory of the respective home team is even 2.5 goals. Bochum’s last results away from home were: 0:4, 1:4, 0:4, 1:3. Strictly speaking, the forecast between Dortmund and Bochum can only be in the direction of the hosts. We do not believe in the first away point win at the rival from the pot.
It is even conceivable that Hofmann and his colleagues will cut their teeth on Borussia’s good home defence. While BVB has won all four of its home matches, including the Clean Sheet, coach Letsch’s guests have already scored zero in five games. Only two goals have been scored in the last five matches away from home.
To make matters worse, the crass underdogs will have to do without important players on Saturday. Especially in the defensive centre, the football coach is running out of options. With Masovic and Heintz, two centre-backs are out.
Lampropoulos will have to stand his ground next to Ordets. The 32-year-old Greek, however, has only played one game in the last five match days and therefore has no match practice. Asano, Goralski and Grave are out. The use of Osei-Tutu will be decided at short notice. Simon Zoller could also make the starting eleven in his place.
Predicted line-up of Bochum:
Riemann – Gamboa, Ordets, Lampropoulos, Danilo Soares – Losilla, Stöger – Osei-Tutu, P. Förster, Antwi-Adjei – P. Hofmann
Last matches played by Bochum:
Bundesliga
29/10/2022- VfL Wolfsburg 4 – 0 VfL Bochum
23/10/2022- VfL Bochum 2 – 1 Union Berlin
DFB Cup
19/10/2022 – Elversberg 0 – 1 VfL Bochum
Bundesliga
15/10/2022 – VfB Stuttgart 4 – 1 VfL Bochum
08/10/2022 – VfL Bochum 3 – 0 Eintracht Frankfurt
Dortmund – Bochum Direct comparison / H2H balance
For the 63rd time, the two clubs will face each other in Germany’s top division on Saturday. With 24 wins, 21 draws and 17 defeats, BVB lead the direct comparison, but not as clearly as one might have expected.
After the four points from the first and second legs of the pre-season, VfL now even have the chance to remain without defeat in three consecutive league games against Borussia for the first time in 30 years. Incidentally, in their first league history, the Bochum side have only scored better in Mönchengladbach than at their neighbours in the Pot.
Dortmund – Bochum Tip
On paper, the small Revier derby between Dortmund and Bochum seems like a clear affair. The fourth in the table meets the second last. A team that will be playing for the Bundesliga championship until the very end meets an opponent that has to worry about staying in the league like only a few other league rivals.
Apart from that, the fact that the visitors from Bochum have lost all six of their away matches so far, conceding a total of 19 goals, should give pause for thought. Four of the six matches were lost with at least a two-goal difference. In their most recent three appearances away from home, they have always conceded four goals.
In our opinion, it therefore makes the most sense to bet on Terzic’s team between Dortmund and Bochum. The double HT1/FT1 at odds of 1.75 would be conceivable, but the handicap bet (-1) also seems to be a solid option, especially if you assume that the Black and Yellows will deliver a similar performance as in their last home match to date against Stuttgart, which they won 5:0.
