Personnel shortages on both sides
At Dortmund Borussia it comes in these days and weeks knüppeldick. After the recent weak performances in all competitions and the associated failure in the DFB Cup or in the Europa League, coach Marco Rose, who according to BVB boss Watzke is still not available in any way, is now also struggling with major personnel problems. Especially defensively, some players are not available.
The task against Arminia late on Sunday afternoon could therefore be more difficult than many expect. Nevertheless, there are of course good reasons why the odds between Dortmund and Bielefeld clearly swing in the direction of the home side. First and foremost, the lopsided odds distribution is due to the fact that the guests from East Westphalia are also struggling with the consequences of the pandemic. Among other things, head coach Frank Kramer will also be absent this weekend.
Nevertheless, the Black and Yellows look anything but solid at the current stage of this season, which is why it remains to be seen whether a forecast for a commanding home victory between Dortmund and Bielefeld will actually come true. However, the potential return of Erling Haaland, who could be part of the squad for the first time in many weeks, would speak in favor of this. Possibly, therefore, goals are also to be expected. On both sides even?
Dortmund – statistics & current form
Nine points behind Borussia Dortmund before this matchday on leader Bayern Munich. To BVB’s credit, however, they still have a make-up game up their sleeve and, in the event of a win next week at FSV Mainz 05, could at least close the gap to six points again.
In the last Bundesliga match two weeks ago, for example, coach Marco Rose’s team had to settle for a 1-1 draw at FC Augsburg. In purely statistical terms, fans need have no fear of points being shared, at least on Sunday, as BVB are the only Bundesliga side not to have drawn in front of a home crowd this season. Ten wins and only two defeats nevertheless equate to the second-best points haul at home.
Defense remains the problem child
But it should give pause for thought that the defense still looks extremely vulnerable. In the entire course of the season, the Westphalians have only managed four clean sheets. A whopping 37 goals were conceded in just 24 games. Only Leverkusen and Cologne have conceded more goals in the top half of the table than the current runners-up, who have conceded at least one goal in seven of the ten home victories mentioned in the Bundesliga alone.
Consequently, it is definitely worth considering a bet between Dortmund and Bielefeld that both teams will score and that the Black-Yellow will still leave the pitch as the winner.
Rose will have to improvise on Sunday
Another argument for a high-scoring encounter is provided by BVB’s average value of goals per game. More than four goals have been scored so far in matches involving the Rose eleven. In eight of the past nine games alone, the bet on the over 2.5 would have gone through. With the likely return of Erling Haaland, this value is unlikely to go down.
Only the already indicated personnel situation in the defense causes the coaching team enormous headaches. With Akanji, Hummels, Guerreiro and Meunier, virtually the entire back four is out. Zagadou, Reus, Moukoko and Tiddes are also unlikely to be available. The central defense will thus probably be formed by Emre Can and Axel Witsel or the duo Pongracic/Coulibaly. To hope for BVB’s fifth clean sheet of the season under these circumstances would be unrealistic.
Predicted lineup of Dortmund:
Kobel – Can, Pongracic, Coulibaly – M. Wolf, Bellingham, Dahoud, N. Schulz – Brandt, T. Hazard – Malen
Last matches of Dortmund:
1st Bundesliga
03/13 202 – Borussia Dortmund 1 – 0 Arminia Bielefeld
02/27 2022 – Augsburg 1 – 1 Borussia Dortmund
Europa League Final Stage
02/24 2022 – Rangers 2 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
1st Bundesliga
02/20 2022 – Borussia Dortmund 6 – 0 Borussia Mönchengladbach
Europa League Final Stage
02/17 2022 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 4 Rangers
Bielefeld – statistics & current form
That Bielefeld will have to fight to stay in the Bundesliga until the very end, was actually already certain before the start of this season. However, the starting position in the fight against relegation could be worse. Arminia currently occupies 15th place and is thus above the magic line. The lead over the relegation zone is two points; VfB Stuttgart, in the first direct relegation spot, is three points behind.
After a remarkable start to the 2022 calendar year, when a respectable six points emerged from four games (one win, three draws) and the streak of unbeaten Bundesliga games in a row was extended to six matches, the form curve recently pointed in the opposite direction again. DSC have lost three of their last four matches and failed to score in any of the three defeats.
Without Coach Kramer to Dortmund
This once again proved that the biggest weakness of coach Frank Kramer’s team is the offense. Since promotion in the summer of 2020, just 48 goals have been scored in 59 Bundesliga games. By comparison, BVB has scored 139 goals in the same period. In the current season, Arminia even has the most harmless attack in the top flight of German soccer. Only 22 goals have been scored to date.
These numbers are of course partly responsible for the fact that the odds on the “both score” between Dortmund and Bielefeld are quite high. Nevertheless, we trust the guests to score at least one goal and justify this, among other things, with the fact that the East Westphalians have celebrated more victories against no other team in the top flight than against Borussia.
The fact that the relegation candidates are also looking at a full hospital at the moment makes things even more difficult. Six players alone will be missing due to infections. So will head coach Frank Kramer, who will be replaced by his assistant Ilia Gruev. The lineup will only be decided at short notice. The underdog has nothing to lose on Sunday. With the courage of despair, a sensation is to be achieved.
Predicted lineup of Bielefeld:
Ortega Moreno – Brunner, Pieper, Andrade, Laursen – F. Kunze – Schöpf, Vasiliadis – Wimmer, Okugawa – Serra
Last games of Bielefeld:
1st Bundesliga
03/13 2022 – Borussia Dortmund 1 – 0 Arminia Bielefeld
03/04 2022 – Arminia Bielefeld 0 – 1 Augsburg
02/26 2023 – Bayer Leverkusen 3 – 0 Arminia Bielefeld
02/19 2022 – Arminia Bielefeld 1 – 0 Union Berlin
02/13 2022 – Hoffenheim 2 – 0 Arminia Bielefeld
Dortmund – Bielefeld Direct comparison / H2H balance
Looking at the head-to-head record of these two teams in the Bundesliga definitely causes some surprise. In fact, BVB only narrowly leads the head-to-head comparison with 17 wins compared to twelve losses and eight draws.
In front of a home crowd, however, the black-and-yellow team only suffered a few lapses against their upcoming opponents. This is underlined by the fact that Borussia scored 55 goals in 18 BL home games against Bielefeld and celebrated 13 victories. The last time the East Westphalians scored in Dortmund’s soccer temple was in 2006. The first leg was also won 3:1 by coach Marco Rose’s favorites.
Dortmund – Bielefeld tip
Four matches will be played this Sunday in the Bundesliga. The reason for this is that at the time of scheduling this 26th matchday, Borussia Dortmund was also still in the Europa League. However, as we all know, BVB failed to win against Glasgow Rangers, so they will surely play one of their last Sunday matches this season this weekend.
Dortmund is very clearly favored against Bielefeld according to the betting odds. At the top, just 1.28 is offered for the home win. This, in turn, is also related to the fact that not only BVB, but also the guests have to do without many players as well as the head coach. Apart from that, Borussia is of course one of the best home teams in the league, having won ten out of twelve games at Signal Iduna Park.
However, in seven of these ten victories, the opposing team also scored at least one goal. In conjunction with the fact that Marco Rose will probably have to do without his entire back four on Sunday, further destabilizing an already fragile defense, we believe that the East Westphalians have a good chance of scoring as well.
