Summit meeting with goal guarantee!

Why is the match between Dortmund and Bayern actually called a “classic” in Germany? Because the two best Bundesliga teams have been facing each other in a direct duel for years? Because there has never been a more frequent professional football match in the Federal Republic of Germany, or because the aforementioned clash between the two hottest contenders for the league title traditionally offers a great deal of spectacle? The answer is probably individual and also offers a lot of room for interpretation.

Anyway, we want to deal with the sporting issues surrounding this clash. For example, the two teams will cross paths for the first time in 13 years without even one of the two clubs being in the top two in the Bundesliga’s intermediate rankings.

Munich currently occupy third place, while BVB is tied for fourth. Because the “hunted”, Union Berlin and Freiburg, do not have to play until Sunday, it is safe to predict before Saturday evening’s match between Dortmund and Bayern that the winner will climb to the top of the table for the time being.

If we look at the odds before the eagerly awaited summit meeting between Dortmund and Bayern, it becomes clear that the bookmakers with a German licence are elevating the record champions to the role of favourites.

Although coach Nagelsmann’s team has already slipped up a few times so far this season, an away win is seen as more likely. The highest odds are 1.70. Should Schwarz-Gelb exploit the home advantage and land a treble, the 4.5-fold stake would be paid out.

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

For Borussia Dortmund, the Champions League match in Sevilla during the week could hardly have gone better. The reigning vice-champion got the upper hand in Andalusia with a 4:1 win, opening the door to the round of 16 extremely wide and at the same time forgetting last weekend’s bitter 2:3 defeat in Cologne. For the second time this season, Borussia gave away a lead and ultimately left the pitch as losers.

From an objective point of view, those responsible around sporting director Sebastian Kehl and coach Edin Terzic will not be completely satisfied with the 15 points from eight games. Three matches have already been lost at national level. BVB has not lost more matches on the first eight matchdays since 2014/15. Back then, the Westphalians only finished the last season under Jürgen Klopp in seventh place in the final standings.

How stable is the BVB defence really?

Of all things, the highly praised offensive in recent years just can’t get rolling. Eleven goals scored correspond to a maximum average value. No other team from the top half of the table has cheered less often than the Black and Yellows, who have also preferred a surprisingly minimalist approach on home soil so far. All three home victories came by the narrowest of margins, a 1:0. We think it is extremely unlikely that a bet on this final score will also come true on Saturday evening in the match between Dortmund and Bayern.

This is supported not least by the fact that Werder Bremen, RB Leipzig and, most recently, 1. FC Köln were also able to score three goals against Dortmund’s back line with almost no problems. Sevilla also created a number of top-class chances during the week, which a high-quality attack like that of FC Bayern is unlikely to miss to the same extent.

Deciding standards in the top match?

A further complicating factor is that the Terzic eleven has recently conceded goals regularly from stationary balls. Nico Schlotterbeck, who virtually invites his opponents to score goals with his head, is under particular scrutiny. Against the “standard specialists” from the Isar, problems in defending corner kicks and free kicks are again looming.

All these aspects ensure that the odds on a high-scoring match are gaining in importance ahead of the Dortmund vs. Bayern clash. In this respect, however, a lot will certainly also depend on whether defender Mats Hummels is available again after injury. In over 500 minutes with the (ex-)international on the pitch, Schwarz-Gelb conceded only one goal. Without the former Munich player, nine goals were conceded, one every 23 minutes.

Besides a potential return of Hummels, regular keeper Kobel and captain Marco Reus are also serious alternatives for the squad again. However, who will be considered for a starting role will only be decided in the short term. Dahoud, Bynoe-Gittens, Morey, Reyna and Haller will definitely be missing.

Predicted Dortmund line-up:
Kobel – Meunier, Süle, N. Schlotterbeck, Guerreiro – Özcan, Bellingham – Brandt, Reus, Adeyemi – Moukoko

Last matches played by Dortmund:

Champions League Grp. G
06/10/2022 – FC Sevilla 1 – 4 Borussia Dortmund

Bundesliga
01/10/2022 – 1. FC Köln 3 – 2 Borussia Dortmund

17/09/2022 – Borussia Dortmund 1 – 0 Schalke 04

Champions League Grp. G
15/09/2022 – Manchester City 2 – 1 Borussia Dortmund

Bundesliga
10/09/2022 – RB Leipzig 3 – 0 Borussia Dortmund

Bayern – Statistics & current form

Actually, it is Bayern’s self-image to lead the standings in Germany’s top division from the first to the last matchday. Nevertheless, despite third place after eight matchdays, Munich is not restless at the moment. The gap to leaders Union Berlin is just two points and could be closed as early as next weekend. To do so, however, they need a win at Signal Iduna Park and some help from their rivals.

It has become more likely that coach Julian Nagelsmann’s team will do their homework after their recent performances. After the record champions had been winless in the Bundesliga four times in a row and lost to FC Augsburg without scoring a goal of their own, the Munich team got back on the road to success last week. First, Bayer Leverkusen were put in their place with a 4-0 win, followed by a 5-0 victory over Viktoria Pilsen in the Champions League.

Will the record champions play themselves into a frenzy again?

When the FCB’s offensive is on fire, it’s on fire! After eight match days, the statistics already show 23 goals scored. With three of the four wins this season, a bet on the over 3.5 would have gone through. 14 of the 23 goals mentioned were scored away from home, which is why we can imagine betting on at least four goals in the course of the match between Dortmund and Bayern.

Another interesting approach is to bet that the serial champions and industry leaders will once again lay the foundation for success in the first 45 minutes. The Bavarian offence scored a staggering 16 goals before the break.

Musiala and Sané as Bavarian hopefuls

Personnel-wise, it will be interesting to see whether the positively tested Kimmich and Müller return from quarantine in time and can give 100% straight away. Almost more important at the moment, however, is the presence of shooting star Jamal Musiala, who has already scored five goals in the first eight match days.

Leroy Sané is also in top form. He confirmed this during the week with his brace against Pilsen. In a possible goal-scorer tip, we would even prefer the moody left-footer at the moment. Coach Julian Nagelsmann, who as Bundesliga coach has not lost to any other club as often as he has against BVB (six matches), will have to do without Hernandez, Sarr and Wanner. Kingsley Coman returns to the squad after overcoming injury.

Predicted Bayern line-up:
Neuer – Pavard, Upamecano, de Ligt, Davies – Kimmich, Sabitzer – Musiala, T. Müller – L. Sané, Mané

Last matches played by Bayern:

Champions League Grp. C
04/10/2022 – Bayern Munich 5 – 0 Viktoria Pilsen

Bundesliga
01/10/2022 – Bayern Munich 4 – 0 Bayer Leverkusen

17/09/2022 – Augsburg 1 – 0 Bayern Munich

Champions League Grp. C
14/09/2022 – Bayern Munich 2 – 0 FC Barcelona

Bundesliga
10/09/2022 – Bayern Munich 2 – 2 VfB Stuttgart

Dortmund – Bayern Direct comparison / H2H-Balance

FC Bayern has become a fearful opponent for Borussia Dortmund in recent years. BVB have lost all of their last eight competitive matches against the men from Säbener Straße. In the Bundesliga, too, the Munich team has had the upper hand in ten of the past eleven direct duels.

For the sixth time in a row, Bayern are the better-placed team in the most important encounter of any Bundesliga season. At least the German giants are currently level on points.

Also interesting and extremely relevant for our BVB vs. Bayern bet is the fact that in ten of the last eleven encounters in the German top flight, at least four goals were scored. Looking back at the four most recent matches alone, a bet on the over 3.5 would always have been crowned with success. 20 goals in this period even correspond to an average of five goals per match.

Dortmund – Bayern Tip

On Saturday evening it’s that time again. From 18:30 o’clock it comes in the Signal Iduna Park to the Kracherspiel Dortmund against Bayern. Betting odds of 1.70 on an away win underline the role of the record champions as favourites, although they have one less three-pointer than BVB so far this season. The black-and-yellow team has already lost out three times, while the FCB only came away empty-handed in Augsburg.

However, since in our eyes many eventualities will decide the outcome of the match, we tend to refrain from a three-way bet. In view of their recent performances, however, our choice would go more in the direction of Munich, even though their coach Julian Nagelsmann has already lost six games against Borussia in his career as a Bundesliga coach.

Our preferred option, however, is to force a bet on the over 3.5 between Dortmund and Bayern. We believe in at least four goals in the course of the match, referring mainly to the offensive strength of the visitors, who have already scored 23 goals this season. In addition, the reigning champions have scored 20 (!) goals in their four most recent Bundesliga encounters against the runners-up alone.