Will BVB take advantage of Bayern’s upsets?
Who will be autumn champions in the Bundesliga? There could already be a preliminary decision on this question next Saturday. Then Dortmund and Bayern will face each other in the German “Clásico”, the game of all games in this country. Just one point separates the defending champions from Munich and the reigning cup winners, who could move to the top of the table if they win at home.
From a black-and-yellow perspective, however, it will take a special performance, which has been rare in the direct duels of late. BVB lost all of their last six competitive matches against FCB. Never before has one of the two teams been able to show such a long series in this pairing. By way of comparison, the record holders have also won “only” six of their previous 13 encounters.
If we look at the odds between Dortmund and Bayern, it becomes clear that the bookmakers see coach Julian Nagelsmann’s team as favourites against all odds. A 1.80 for an away win with little value at first glance is offset by a 4.00 for a home win.
With all understanding for the Bavarian dominance in the current season, it should not be neglected that Borussia has won all seven home games in the Bundesliga so far and could also benefit from the fact that many other sideshows continue to dominate the headlines for the visitors. So in the top match of matchday 14 between Dortmund and Bayern, is it the prediction of a BVB victory that yields the most exciting value?
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
In football, there are sometimes only a few days between soaring high and falling to your death. This was also the case for Borussia Dortmund, who lost all chances of reaching the Champions League round of 16 last week with a bitter 3-1 defeat at Sporting Lisbon, but showed the right reaction the following weekend with a 3-1 win in Wolfsburg.
In addition to the really good performance in the Autostadt, the surprisingly early comeback of Erling Haaland is likely to have triggered real jubilation among the fans. Just nine minutes after coming on as a substitute, the Norwegian got on the scoresheet and scored his 50th goal in his 50th Bundesliga match. Haaland is now expected back in the starting eleven for the top match against his fiercest rival for the goalscoring crown, Robert Lewandowski.
Home power BVB
But that’s only one good reason why betting on the Black and Yellows before the Dortmund vs Bayern match could be well worth considering. A second argument is their impressive home form in the current season.
All seven previous Bundesliga matches at Signal Iduna Park in 2021/22 have been victorious. The cup winners have even celebrated eleven Bundesliga home victories in a row! If they were to win treble No. 12 this weekend, they would equal their own club record from 1994 and at the same time increase their chances of winning the (autumn) championship. Because: In the event of a win, BVB would move past FCB in the standings and would have a feasible final programme to complete in the first half of the season with Bochum, Fürth and Hertha.
Spectacle guaranteed?
However, if a prediction on the “eternal runner-up” in the top match Dortmund vs. Bayern is too much of a risk, you should focus on a high number of goals. For one thing, in eight of the last nine direct Bundesliga encounters between these rivals, the 3.5 goal mark was always broken. For another, Borussia have already scored 30 goals (4.29 on average) in the seven aforementioned home games this season alone. With Haaland on the pitch, it was even more than five goals per match (22 in four games).
Personnel wise, things have eased up a bit for the second-placed team in the table, just in time for the classic. Guerreiro is now back in the team, as are Mo Dahoud, Emre Can and Marius Wolf. Reyna, Hazard, Moukoko, Schmelzer, Morey and probably also the injured Bellingham, whose absence would certainly be the most serious, are still unavailable.
Predicted line-up of Dortmund:
Kobel – Meunier, Akanji, Hummels, Guerreiro – Dahoud – Brandt, Can – Reus – Haaland, Malen
Last matches played by Dortmund:
1st Bundesliga
11/27 2021 – Vfl Wolfsburg 1 – 3 Borussia Dortmund
Champions League Grp. C
11/24 2021 – Sporting CP 3 – 1 Borussia Dortmund
1st Bundesliga
11/20 2021 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 1 VfB Stuttgart
11/06 2021 – RB Leipzig 2 – 1 Borussia Dortmund
Champions League Grp. C
11/03 2021 – Borussia Dortmund 1 – 3 Ajax Amsterdam
Bayern – Statistics & current form
Actually, FC Bayern has been well on its way to shedding its often somewhat disrespectful-sounding reputation as “FC Hollywood” in recent years. At the moment, however, things are going haywire at Säbener Straße.
The ongoing vaccination controversy surrounding various Bayern stars, a quarantine imposed several times on players who have not been vaccinated and, finally, the annual general meeting that got out of hand are currently causing some unnecessary work to be done at the record champion. The all-important summit meeting with their long-time rivals from Dortmund comes precisely in this difficult phase.
Will BVB remain a red rag for Nagelsmann?
At least in sporting terms, coach Julian Nagelsmann’s team can’t be blamed for anything, apart from the bitter cup exit against Gladbach (0:5). With 31 points after 13 matchdays, Munich are playing their best season since 2015/16. Only once (1976/77) did the FCB have more goals on their account at that time than they currently do. 42 goals scored equate to an outstanding average of 3.23 goals per match.
For many reasons, however, the guest game in the biggest football temple of the Federal Republic of Germany will not be a foregone conclusion. On the one hand, the leaders have conceded at least one goal in each of their last nine away games in the Bundesliga. On the other hand, coach Nagelsmann has a poor record against the upcoming opponents. The football coach has only won one of eleven Bundesliga matches against BVB – in 2018 with TSG Hoffenheim. Instead, they have already suffered six defeats in four draws.
Personnel situation causes concern
On Saturday, however, the 34-year-old can rely on the famous Bayern gene. The Munich side have not lost any of the last 15 matches in which the first team in the standings has met the second. If they keep it up and Lewandowski and Co. even manage an away treble, they can expect top odds of 1.80 at Bwin.
Personnel-wise, the leaders will not be able to draw on their full complement by any means. Above all, the absence of Joshua Kimmich may well play an important role, especially as his congenial partner in the centre of midfield, Leon Goretzka, is also in danger of being absent. Choupo-Moting, Sabitzer, Sarr and Stanisic will also be absent. In any case, hopes rest above all on the broad shoulders of Robert Lewandowski, who was named the second best footballer in the world during the week. The Pole has already scored 24 goals against his former club in his Bundesliga career.
Predicted Bayern line-up:
Neuer – Süle, Upamecano, Hernandez – Tolisso, Goretzka – Coman, T. Müller, L. Sané, Davies – Lewandowski
Last matches played by Bayern:
1st Bundesliga
11/27 2021 – Bayern Munich 1 – 0 Arminia Bielefeld
Champions League Grp. E
11/23 2021 – Dynamo Kiev 1 – 2 Bayern Munich
1st Bundesliga
11/19 2021 – Augsburg 2 – 1 Bayern Munich
11/06 2021 – Bayern Munich 2 – 1 SC Freiburg
Champions League Grp. E
11/02 2021 – Bayern Munich 5 – 2 Benfica
Dortmund – Bayern Tip
Not much went right for Borussia Dortmund in their last direct duels against FC Bayern. Six Bundesliga defeats in a row, three of them at home, are a clear indication that the record champions have clearly had the edge at national level recently. Next Saturday, however, the teams are likely to meet on an equal footing.
This assessment, which is only reflected to a limited extent in the betting odds between Dortmund and Bayern, is primarily based on the assumption that only one point separates the two teams in the standings. Slight qualitative advantages on the side of the Munich team are offset by the FCB’s tight personnel situation and the enormous home strength of the Black and Yellows. Excitement and spectacle should therefore be guaranteed on Saturday evening.
If we had to decide on a tip for the top match between Dortmund and Bayern, the choice would fall on the over 3.5. Eight of the last nine direct duels between these teams have resulted in at least four goals. In addition, the two best offensives in the league meet. Bayern alone score 3.23 goals per game, while BVB have scored a whopping 30 goals in seven home games. In addition, the star strikers Haaland and Lewandowski guarantee goal successes!
Value, however, also lies in the quotes on a Dortmund point win. Given the home strength, Kimmich’s absence and Nagelsmann’s weak record against the black and yellow, the odds are far too clearly in favour of the record champions in our eyes. It might even be worth betting on a home win.
