Will FCA score against the next favourite?
Just in time for the re-start in the Bundesliga, there was positive news to report from Borussia Dortmund’s surroundings on Friday lunchtime. Youssoufa Moukoko has extended his contract early until 2026 and, after weeks of talks with club officials around Sebastian Kehl, has finally put an end to discussions about a possible departure. At least one controversial personnel issue has thus been put to one side ahead of the first competitive match in the calendar year 2023.
Sportingly, the Black and Yellows are under extreme pressure after a disappointing first 15 matchdays. BVB are currently only in sixth place and have already suffered six defeats, five of them away from home. On Sunday afternoon, Terzic’s team will play in front of their own fans at Signal Iduna Park, which will of course have a positive effect on our Dortmund vs. Augsburg betting tips.
The Fuggerstädter should definitely not be underestimated, as they have picked up two thirds of their points away from home over the course of the season. In terms of quality, however, they are worlds apart, so it would be quite a surprise if a prediction in favour of the underdog from the south were to pay off in the Dortmund vs Augsburg clash. Especially considering that FCA have lost their four most recent away games in Germany’s biggest football temple.
Dortmund – statistics & current form
Actually, Borussia Dortmund had set itself the goal of becoming a serious rival for Bayern in the battle for the championship trophy thanks to some big-name transfers in the summer. The dismal reality, however, looks different. The Black and Yellows are nine points behind the Munich team, even though the direct duel at Signal Iduna Park ended in a draw.
All in all, the team of coach Edin Terzic had far too many lapses. Six defeats at this point correspond to the highest number since Klopp’s last season in 2014/2015, in which Borussia was even in a relegation spot at times. At that time, however, BVB even managed to make it into European business thanks to a strong second half of the season. This time, too, the Westphalians will need a good second half of the season to punch their ticket to the top flight.
Dortmund with mostly strong performances in front of their own fans
The start should be made on Sunday when Marco Reus and Co. definitely rely on home advantage against FCA. While Borussia have lost five of their eight matches away from home, they have a very respectable home record of five wins, one draw and only one defeat. In the five most recent home matches before the World Cup break, Dortmund recorded 13 of a possible 15 points and even went four matches without conceding a goal in the course of this winning streak.
The home strength built up over many years is actually also our most important argument when it comes to justifying the low odds on the home win between Dortmund and Augsburg. We even believe that, similar to the last two home games in 2022 against Stuttgart (5:0) and Bochum (3:0), the Schwarz-Gelben can also beat FCA with at least a two-goal difference.
Coach Terzic is again spoilt for choice
The fact that Terzic’s team had the most shots on goal from play behind Bayern also speaks for this. The only thing that prevented them from scoring even more goals was their poor chance conversion rate, which was reflected in the league’s worst figure of only 32% of converted chances.
In terms of personnel, the coach can be happy about some returnees. Reus is back after injury, Dahoud, Özcan, Bynoe-Gittens and of course Haller are also fit for action. The latter could now celebrate his emotional competitive debut in the black-yellow kit after his cancer illness. In the 6:0 test match victory against FC Basel, the striker, who was signed from Ajax, already showed his skills with three goals within seven minutes. Julian Ryerson, who only arrived from Union Berlin during the week, is also set to make his debut for BVB.
Predicted line-up of Dortmund:
Kobel – Ryerson, Süle, Hummels, Guerreiro – Özcan – Adeyemi, Reus, Bellingham, Malen – Moukoko
Last matches played by Dortmund:
Friendly club matches
13/01/2023 – Borussia Dortmund 6 – 0 FC Basel 1893
10/01/2023 – Borussia Dortmund 5 – 1 Fortuna Düsseldorf
10/12/2022 – Borussia Dortmund 0 – 2 AC Florenz
10/12/2022 – Rapid Bucuresti 1 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
28/11/2022 – Johor Darul Ta’zim FC 1 – 4 Borussia Dortmund
Augsburg – Statistics & current form
At times, FC Augsburg were among the teams with the best form in the German top flight in the almost complete first half of the season. For example, the three-match winning streak in September, which included a 1-0 defeat of FC Bayern, remains unforgotten. In the last few weeks before the World Cup break, however, FCA’s form showed a downward trend.
Coach Enrico Maassen’s team has not won a match in seven Bundesliga games. In addition to three draws, they have also suffered four defeats in which the defence in particular did not make a particularly good impression.
Is FCA once again proving to be a scare for the favourites?
The relatively bold approach of the coach, who once made a name for himself at BVB’s reserves, has meant that keeper Gikiewicz has often had to make saves. In six of the past eight BL matches alone, two or more goals were conceded. The last clean sheet dates back to 17 September 2022.
Nevertheless, the Fuggerstädter have to be given credit for the fact that they have not been beaten in a single away game or even lost by two goals. That is exactly what could change on Sunday afternoon at Signal Iduna Park, although it should be mentioned for the sake of completeness that the club, which many experts predict will face a tough relegation battle this season, has picked up ten of its total of only 15 points this season at opposing stadiums.
Another positive aspect is that the Bavarian Swabians have always scored at least once in 17 consecutive Bundesliga games against BVB. Therefore, it might even be an option to combine odds on a home win between Dortmund and Augsburg with goals scored by both teams. With the two attackers Yeboah and Beljo, two newcomers could start from the beginning. However, with Berisha (suspension), Hahn, Iago, Strobl and Oxford, five important players are missing, which makes the already tough task even more difficult.
Predicted line-up of Augsburg:
Gikiewicz – Gumny, Gouweleeuw, Uduokhai, Pedersen – Baumgartlinger, Rexhbecaj – Maier, Demirovic – Beljo, Yeboah
Last matches played by Augsburg:
Friendly club matches
14/01/2023 – Augsburg 1 – 0 VfL Wolfsburg
14/01/2023 – Augsburg 0 – 4 VfL Wolfsburg
11/01/2023 – Augsburg 0 – 2 Ferencvaros
07/01/2023 – Union Berlin 4 – 1 Augsburg
07/01/2023 – Union Berlin 1 – 0 Augsburg
Dortmund – Augsburg Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
This is the 23rd time the two teams have faced each other in the Bundesliga on Sunday lunchtime. Borussia have won 13 of the 22 previous meetings. At home, their record stands at seven wins, three draws and one defeat. The most recent four BVB home games against FCA were also won. After all, five of Dortmund’s seven Bundesliga home victories against the Fuggerstädter would have been a bet on the handicap (-1). A good omen for Sunday lunchtime?
Dortmund – Augsburg tip
On paper, the clash on Sunday afternoon at 15:30 at Signal Iduna Park seems to be a clear affair. The Dortmund vs. Augsburg betting odds also paint a clear picture. For the home win, only 1.35 is offered at the top, which corresponds to an implied probability of occurrence of a whopping 73%.
Although Augsburg, who have taken ten of their 15 points away from home this season, are certainly not to be underestimated away from home, several factors point to a commanding home win for Borussia, who are definitely under pressure after a disappointing season so far, but are far better able to cope with the high expectations at home than in opposing stadiums.
The implied home strength in conjunction with the qualitative advantages resulting in particular from the players returning after injury breaks are sufficient arguments for us to place a bet on a handicap win (-1) for the home side before the Dortmund vs Augsburg match. The maximum odds are 1.82 and are played by us with seven units.
