Will Dortmund’s B-Elf win the CL dress rehearsal?
It has been clear since Wednesday evening that Borussia Dortmund will once again be represented in the UEFA Champions League next season. With their 1-0 first-leg victory over Paris St. Germain in the CL semi-final, the Black & Yellows ensured that the fifth-placed team in the Bundesliga will also be guaranteed a ticket to the reformed top flight in 2024/25. At the same time, coach Edin Terzic’s team have put themselves in a great starting position for the second leg next Tuesday. The dream of reaching the final at Wembley is still alive
In view of the fact that the remaining three Bundesliga matches for BVB are purely statistical in nature and the focus is logically on the cracker at the Prinzenpark in Paris, it is understandable that relatively high odds are being offered for a home win between Dortmund and Augsburg. Under normal circumstances, a 1.50 for Borussia’s success would probably have appeared on the three-way market, but at the moment it is even 1.90 for the host’s three-goal win
Although coach Edin Terzic will certainly rotate his squad and give some key players a rest, especially in offense, there are enough arguments to justify a prediction on the fifth-placed team between Dortmund and Augsburg. Those who share this view will find top odds and an attractive deposit bonus at Interwetten.
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
At Borussia Dortmund, everything currently revolves around the top flight and the outstanding opportunity to reach the final for the first time since 2013. The euphoria after the remarkable 1:0 win in the first leg against the star ensemble from the French capital is unbroken. And rightly so! BVB put in a cohesive team performance against Kylian Mbappé and Co. at home, defended as a collective and benefited from the necessary bit of luck needed to win big games.
As the encounter on Wednesday evening took a lot of energy and Edin Terzic only made changes in the closing stages, it can definitely be assumed that there will be some changes to the starting eleven on Saturday afternoon. Moukoko, Malen, Bynoe-Gittens, Özcan, Reus, Süle, Wolf and Nmecha are all potential candidates to start. A certain loss of quality and flow cannot be averted, but the second guard also has enough potential to defeat FCA in their own stadium.
Does Dortmund’s second guard also convince?
The home advantage, for example, speaks in BVB’s favor. Although nothing is at stake for the Black & Yellows in sporting terms, over 80,000 spectators will once again make their way to Signal Iduna Park to support their heroes. Three of the four previous defeats in front of a home crowd were against absolute top teams. However, with the exception of the 3-2 defeat to TSG Hoffenheim, Borussia have also come out on top in many cases against mid-table clubs. Regardless of who will be on the pitch for Dortmund this weekend as part of the 32nd matchday in the Bundesliga: The will to give the fans a three-pointer in the penultimate home game of the season will be huge.
Above all, Marco Reus could play a decisive role. The veteran, who may end his career in the summer or possibly even change clubs again, is therefore on a potential farewell tour. In our eyes, the former international could be the goalscorer on Saturday. If you share this opinion, you can find attractive odds at Intertops for Marco Reus to score between Dortmund and Augsburg
Predicted Dortmund line-up:
Augsburg – Statistics & current form
FC Augsburg are still dreaming of a comeback on the international stage three matchdays before the end of the season. There are currently many indications that the seventh-placed team in the Bundesliga will also be competing in Europe. It is even possible that the eighth-placed team in the final table will secure a ticket for Europe. The dream could therefore become a reality, even though coach Jess Thorup’s team suffered two major setbacks in the last two matchdays and squandered their momentum.
Firstly, they suffered a deserved 3-1 defeat at Eintracht Frankfurt in an important away game due to a weak second half, before losing 3-0 at home to Werder Bremen at the weekend. Looking back over the last four games, that makes three defeats. For the first time this season, there is a threat of three Bundesliga defeats in a row. Since matchday 28, only Union Berlin have picked up fewer points than the Fuggerstädter, whose self-confidence is likely to have suffered as a result of their performances. This is one of the reasons why we are not predicting the double chance between Dortmund and Augsburg
FCA failed to win away from home against the top teams
Although FCA are of course having a really good season and were able to get rid of any fear of relegation early, it must nevertheless be said that the southern Swabians often failed to compete at the highest level away from home. Two thirds of all defeats this season were at home (eight out of twelve). Augsburg also lost at FC Bayern, in Stuttgart and in Leipzig. To conclude from this that FCA will also leave Signal Iduna Park on Saturday afternoon without any points in their luggage is certainly not too far-fetched and a veritable betting approach in view of the Dortmund v Augsburg home win odds
In view of the recent defensive weaknesses of Thorup’s team, which has conceded three goals in three of the last four BL matches and is also the most susceptible first division team to set-pieces with 15 goals conceded from resting balls, it is also conceivable to place a bet on a relatively high-scoring game.
In addition to the over 2.5, which is not quoted particularly attractively, the over 1.5 (1st half) can also be considered. In three of FCA’s four most recent matches, two goals have been scored in the first 45 minutes. Furthermore, there is no other team in the German top flight that has conceded more goals before the break than Augsburg (32), who even went into the break trailing on 13 of 31 matchdays. To make matters worse, new winter signing Jakic will be missing an important player through suspension. The ex-Frankfurt man has only missed one game so far since his transfer and is statistically the best ball-winner at Rangachten.
Predicted Augsburg line-up:
Dortmund – Augsburg Direct comparison / H2H balance
Borussia have enjoyed playing against FC Augsburg recently. The Black & Yellows have not lost any of their last six meetings (4-2-0). BVB have even won their last five home games against the Fuggerstadt club. Nevertheless, the Champions League semi-finalists have now failed to keep a clean sheet against FCA in eleven head-to-head matches at home. Terzic’s side also struggled in the first leg at the WWK Arena and ultimately only managed a 1-1 draw
Dortmund – Augsburg betting tip
In purely sporting terms, the remaining three Bundesliga games are no longer of any great significance for BVB. The CL ticket for the coming season is already secured and the full concentration is on the semi-final at Paris St. Germain on Tuesday evening. As a result, there will be a few changes to the Black & Yellows’ starting eleven. However, we think it would be wrong to automatically assume that the fifth-placed team will not win at home against FC Augsburg.
Under normal circumstances, Borussia’s second string should also have enough quality to put the recently unsteady Fuggerstädter in their place in front of a sell-out crowd. The visitors from the south have lost three of their last four league games and conceded three goals in all three defeats. Furthermore, Demirovic’s side have not necessarily been a terror on the road to date. Especially not against the absolute top teams in the Bundesliga. In our eyes, the betting odds on a home win between Dortmund and Augsburg therefore offer good value.
BVB have won all of their last five home games against the southern Swabians and will be looking to put down another marker just a few days before the aforementioned second leg at the Prinzenpark in Paris. We are convinced that they will succeed and therefore recommend betting on a three-pointer for the home team ahead of the Dortmund v Augsburg clash
