Will BVB get revenge?
It’s been two weeks since the disgrace in Amsterdam. Wednesday evening’s second leg at Signal Iduna Park will finally show whether BVB have learned their lessons from the one-sided first leg or are simply one or two tiers lower than the Dutch champions in the current constellation?
Looking at the odds ahead of the eagerly awaited clash between Dortmund and Ajax Amsterdam, it is clear that even the bookmakers are far from sure what to expect from this match. Although they are currently offering lower quotes on the Bundesliga team’s success, it would be completely presumptuous to speak of a pronounced role as favourites.
Therefore, it is perhaps a little more interesting to make a prediction between Dortmund and Ajax Amsterdam that the spectators will once again see a goal or two. Only the distribution of goals is likely to be different from the first leg, which the ten Hag team won 4:0. Nevertheless, we wouldn’t be surprised if the 3.5 goal mark is broken on Wednesday evening either.
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
Until the first leg at Ajax Amsterdam a fortnight ago, Borussia Dortmund’s season on the international stage went smoothly. On the first two matchdays, Besiktas (2:1) and Sporting Lisbon (1:0) were both brought to their knees by narrow but thoroughly deserved margins. The away game against the Dutch champions was supposed to be the decisive step towards the last 16. What followed was an embarrassment unparalleled even in Dortmund’s long European Cup history.
Before the return match in front of their home crowd on Wednesday evening, the fans are now hoping for redemption and revenge. Statistically speaking, the supporters of the Black and Yellows can indeed hope for a good result, as Borussia has not lost in the Champions League group stage for ten home games now. The last team to win a group game at Signal Iduna Park in the preliminary round was Tottenham under Mauricio Pochettino in November 2017.
Apart from that, the Westphalians’ record against Dutch teams in international competition is also quite respectable. BVB have lost only one European home game against Dutch representatives so far. However, that defeat (also against Ajax Amsterdam) was 25 years ago. However, because these statistics primarily refer to the past and the influence of the first leg will still be strong in the minds of many, we would rather refrain from betting on the three-way market in the Dortmund vs. Ajax Amsterdam clash.
A bet on a relatively high number of goals is more exciting. In four out of six Bundesliga home games this season, a bet on over 3.5 would have been crowned with success. In only two of 13 competitive matches (excluding DFB Pokal matches against lower-ranked teams) did the Borussia defence keep its clean sheet. It is hard to imagine that this will be possible against the enormous offensive power of the Dutch. Consequently, we believe in an offensive spectacle with four or more goals. Who ultimately has the better chance of the three points depends on the subjective weighting of individual factors.
In addition to the sorely missed Haaland, BVB coach Marco Rose will also have to continue to do without Morey, Guerreiro and Schulz. Dahoud, Reyna, Schmelzer and the previously injured Zagadou, on the other hand, have returned to training in recent days and weeks, but are not expected to be options for the upcoming clash against Ajax, in which Dortmund’s aim is to secure second place. As far as winning the group is concerned, the black-and-yellows would need a resounding victory, which seems extremely unlikely in view of the impressions of a fortnight ago.
Predicted Dortmund line-up:
Kobel; Can, Hummels Akanji; Meunier, Bellingham, Witsel, Wolf; Reus, Brandt; Hazard
Last matches played by Dortmund:
1st Bundesliga
10/30 2021 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 0 1. FC Köln
DFB Cup
10/26 2021 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 0 Ingolstadt
1st Bundesliga
10/23 2021 – Arminia Bielefeld 1 – 3 Borussia Dortmund
Champions League Grp. C
10/19 2021 – Ajax Amsterdam 4 – 0 Borussia Dortmund
1st Bundesliga
10/16 2021 – Borussia Dortmund 3 – 1 Mainz 05
Ajax Amsterdam – Statistics & current form
Maybe Borussia Dortmund can learn something from Dutch first division side Heracles Almelo. The team of the German coach and former head of training for the football teacher licence Frank Wormuth fought their way to a 0-0 draw against the reigning champions on Saturday evening as clear underdogs, becoming only the third team after Utrecht (0-1) and PSV Eindhoven (0-4 in the Supercup) to remain without conceding a goal against the “Godenzonen”.
The numbers underline how impressively the offensive “bombs” in the current season. In the Eredivisie there have already been 37 goals in eleven games (3.36 average), in the Champions League there have even been eleven goals in three attempts (3.67 average). No wonder, then, that before the Dortmund vs. Ajax Amsterdam clash, the prediction of many experts is that there will once again be a lot of goals on Wednesday.
Ajax are playing an outstanding season so far
Another interesting fact is that the White and Reds are playing the most efficient pressing of any club so far in the top flight season. After winning the ball high (space up to 40 metres in front of the opponent’s goal), the Dutch have already fired ten shots on goal and have already celebrated two goals. This puts them at the top in both categories! Also in the first leg, coach ten Hag’s team hardly let the Dortmund team out of their own half and put on a very dominant performance.
In conjunction with the statistics that show the “sons of God” as losers only once in the past ten CL away games in the group stage, one must come to the conclusion from an objective point of view that the odds on a success for the visitors between Dortmund and Ajax Amsterdam most likely contain the more attractive value. So if we had to decide on a winner in the two-way market, the choice would tend to fall on Ajax.
Due to injury, the two regular keepers Stekelenburg and Onana will be absent, replaced by oldie Pasveer. There are also question marks over whether Klaiber, Labyad and Mazraoui, who are ill, will play. Sebastien Haller, who has already been directly involved in eight goals (!) in this CL season, will definitely start. The former Frankfurt player has six goals and two assists to his name.
Predicted line-up of Ajax Amsterdam:
Pasveer; Rensch, Timber, Martinez, Blind; Alvarez, Gravenberch; Antony, Berghuis, Tadic; Haller
Last matches played by Ajax Amsterdam:
Eredivisie
10/30 2021 – Heracles Almelo 0 – 0 Ajax Amsterdam
10/24 2021 – Ajax Amsterdam 5 – 0 PSV Eindhoven
Champions League Grp. C
10/19 2021 – Ajax Amsterdam 4 – 0 Borussia Dortmund
Eredivisie
10/16 2021 – SC Heerenveen 0 – 2 Ajax Amsterdam
10/03 2021 – Ajax Amsterdam 0 – 1 FC Utrecht
Dortmund – Ajax Amsterdam Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
We have debated at length the 4-0 first leg victory of the Amsterdammers, which was even flattering considering the many chances. In the fifth direct encounter between these two teams, it was already the third Dutch victory. After all, BVB narrowly won the last home match at Signal Iduna Park in the 2012/13 CL group phase. In fact, the “Godenzonen” have celebrated only two victories in the past ten guest matches on German soil.
Dortmund – Ajax Amsterdam Tip
What reaction will Borussia Dortmund show on Wednesday evening? Two weeks after the embarrassing 0:4 defeat in Amsterdam, BVB enjoys home advantage this time. Marco Reus and Co. want to make amends in front of their own fans. want to make amends and put themselves in a promising position in the race for the last 16.
According to the Dortmund vs. Ajax Amsterdam betting odds, Borussia are the razor-thin favourites, although it should not be forgotten that the Rose eleven will still have to do without their best player, Haaland. Moreover, the visitors from Holland did not give the impression that their performance in the first leg was a flash in the pan. An away win on Wednesday can therefore not be ruled out.
However, we are focusing on the Dortmund vs. Ajax Amsterdam match on the bet that at least four goals will be scored. On the one hand, this is due to the outstanding offensive performance of the visitors, which will pose problems against the BVB defence, which continues to look anything but stable. On the other hand, there is also the enormous power of the black and yellow team, which they can develop in front of the south stand. There is a lot to be said for a lively back and forth and a beautiful up and down.
For at least four goals in the course of the game (over 3.5), we get a 2.15 at the tested bookmaker Comeon, which is worth a stake of six units to us. Alternatively, it might be worth betting 2.40 on both teams scoring at least once after the break. Those who don’t trust BVB much and are guided by the first leg can either add the double chance X2 or the away win (DNB 2) to their portfolio.
