Will Derby County continue their recent run of form in the FA Cup?
After relegation is before promotion: At least that’s the plan for Derby County after their bitter drop into the second division. Last year, the Rams would have been able to stay in the league with 55 points, but the traditional club from the East Midlands was deducted a total of 21 points by the English Football Association due to financial setbacks.
Now Derby are targeting the comeback. Before the promotion race continues in the league, the next round in the 2023 FA Cup is now up for grabs. In the cup, the Rams face a tough one and are expectedly the underdog against a PL club like West Ham United.
If Derby County’s recent form is anything to go by, a surprise in the FA Cup is not out of the question. In the previous round, the third division side knocked fellow relegated Barnsley FC out of the cup, even recording an impressive 3-0 win in front of their home crowd.
The Rams have won six in a row across all competitions. It is therefore by no means outlandish to venture a prediction on the hosts in Derby vs. West Ham with a moderate stake. The last time the two clubs met at Derby’s Pride Park, it was almost twelve years ago and the Rams won 2-1 – a good omen ahead of the Cup game?
Derby – Statistics & current form
Derby are on course for the Championship. Relegated from the second division, Derby County are currently among the favourites to return to England’s second tier. After 27 matchdays in League One, the Rams are in fourth place and thus occupy one of the four starting spots for the promotion play-offs.
Second-placed Sheffield Wednesday are still within reach, so Derby County still have a realistic chance of a direct promotion spot in the second half of the season. If you take a look at the recent form curve, the scenario of direct promotion to the Championship is by no means far-fetched at the moment.
Derby have not lost in 14 matches in a row. In fact, head coach Paul Warne’s side have won ten of their last 14 matches. Derby have recently won six games in a row and have not conceded a goal in three of them. The Rams also flexed their muscles on the offensive end.
Will the Rams’ offense be convincing against WHU?
In the last five matches, Derby County had a goal rate of 2.80 goals per match. If they continue to do so, a goal success in the cup match against the Hammers cannot be ruled out. This is also supported by the recent H2h between the two clubs. In the last six competitive matches against WHU, Derby have only failed to score once.
The last time the two clubs met at Pride Park, Derby County actually beat WHU 2-1. At that time, both clubs were still playing in the Championship, mind you. If Derby win again this time, the Rams will advance to the fifth round of the FA Cup for the first time since the 2019/20 season. In the previous two years, Derby had to bow out in the third round.
Head coach Paul Warne is expected to be able to draw from the full squad for Monday night’s cup tie and has no personnel worries. After the 2-1 win against Port Vale during the week, changes in the starting eleven tend to be ruled out.
Predicted line-up of Derby:
Wildsmith; Smith, Davies, Forsyth, Roberts; Hourihane, Bird; Mendez-Laing, Knight, Dobbin; McGoldrick
Last matches played by Derby:
League One
25/01/2023 – Port Vale 1 – 2 Derby
21/01/2023 – Derby 2 – 1 Bolton
14/01/2023 – Cheltenham 2 – 3 Derby
FA Cup
08/01/2023 – Derby 3 – 0 Barnsley
League One
02/01/2023 – Derby 4 – 0 Accrington
West Ham – Statistics & current form
Breakaway blow for the Hammers! The traditional club from London’s East End ended their league misery with a 2-0 win at Everton FC and bagged three points in the English top flight for the first time since October 2022. WHU coach David Moyes’ side also moved out of the relegation zone for the time being and are now back above the line.
Before the next league match against Newcastle United, the Londoners now have a cup match against Derby County. In the previous round, West Ham beat Brentford FC to book their ticket to the fourth round of the FA Cup for the sixth time in a row. In the last five seasons, WHU has been eliminated from the competition three times.
It therefore remains to be seen whether Derby vs. West Ham will prove to be a prediction of the Hammers advancing to the fifth round of the FA Cup. If recent form on foreign soil is anything to go by, betting on it involves a lot of risk. Across competitions, there have only been two wins for WHU in their last eight away games.
Will WHU lose again on away soil?
In the last four away games, the Londoners have scored six times. It is quite possible that the negative trend will continue against the in-form third division team from Derby. Head coach David Moyes is likely to forego a major rotation and go into the cup match with his best squad.
Although staying in the league is the primary goal this season, the FA Cup is not likely to be neglected by the Londoners – especially as Moyes cannot afford a cup debacle after the mixed 2022/23 season anyway. The Scot is skating on thin ice and is currently under pressure to succeed.
Only Ings, Cornet and Scamacca are expected to miss Monday night’s match due to injury. There are no other absentees for West Ham at the moment.
Predicted West Ham line-up:
Fabianski; Zouma, Ogbonna, Aguerd; Coufal, Paqueta, Rice, Palmieri; Bowen, Benrahma; Antonio
Last matches played by West Ham:
Premier League
21/01/2023 – West Ham 2 – 0 Everton
14/01/2023 – Wolverhampton 1 – 0 West Ham
FA Cup
08/01/2023 – Brentford 0 – 1 West Ham
Premier League
05/01/2023 – Leeds 2 – 2 West Ham
31/12/2022 – West Ham 0 – 2 Brentford
Derby – West Ham Direct comparison / H2H record
Derby County and West Ham meet for the 77th time. The Londoners currently lead the head-to-head comparison against Derby with a record of 27-25-24. West Ham have won three of their last four must-win duels against Monday’s opponents.
The last time the two clubs met in the Championship was in the 2011/12 season. In the first leg, WHU edged out Derby County 3-1. In return, the Rams won the second leg 2-1 against the Londoners. This was the fifth time in a row that a bet on over 2.5 goals paid off on Derby vs. West Ham.
Derby – West Ham Tip
Derby County go into their cup tie against West Ham as underdogs and have nothing to lose on Monday night. For the Rams, the primary goal this season is to get back into the Championship, so the third division club can play free in the cup match against WHU. Nevertheless, Derby should not be underestimated in the FA Cup.
At home, Derby have the potential to upset the first division side from London’s East End in their current form. Not only does the Rams have the home advantage, but also the away weakness of their cup opponents. West Ham have won only two of their last eight matches away from home.
Bets on a home win therefore have value and are especially recommended for fans of underdog betting. For Derby vs. West Ham, we opt for a bet on over 2.5 goals in the match. A prediction on this has already paid off in the last five matches between the two clubs. We use five units for this purpose.
