QPR on course for promotion?
There are currently only three teams in the Championship that have conceded fewer defeats than Derby County. Nevertheless, the Rams are in last place in the Championship after 19 matchdays and have only one point to their name. This situation is mainly due to the deduction of points during the season.
In total, 21 points have already been deducted from the East Midlands club due to financial difficulties and an ongoing insolvency procedure. Although Derby County are not playing a bad season so far, a stint in League One – for the first time since 1986 mind you – is probably unavoidable after the immense points deduction.
Even before Monday’s game with Queens Park Rangers, Derby County are 19 points adrift of the drop zone. Nevertheless, head coach Wayne Rooney’s team will approach the match against the visitors from London with a broad chest. The Rams have not lost in three consecutive matches in the last three seasons.
There is no clear favourite between Derby vs. QPR according to the odds of the best bookmakers. Quotes beyond the 2.00 mark are offered for both clubs, with the visitors only minimally favoured. Last season, QPR won 1-0 at league rivals East Midlands – a good omen ahead of Monday’s match?
Derby – Statistics & current form
Even before the start of the season, it was clear that the Rams would be fighting to stay in the league after the harsh points deduction. For breaching the EFL’s viability and sustainability rules, Wayne Rooney’s club were handed their next penalty a fortnight ago. A total of nine more points were deducted from Derby County’s score.
This will probably make it impossible for them to stay in the Championship. Although Derby County have not had a bad season, the current gap to the top of the table makes it virtually impossible for them to stay in the Championship. For Wayne Rooney & Co. to do so, a small miracle would be necessary.
However, the results of the last few weeks have shown that the Rams should by no means be described as a supplier of points. Derby County remained unbeaten on the last three matchdays and even scored against promotion aspirants like Bournemouth and Fulham. Against the latter, they even kept their clean sheet.
Will the next points come against QPR?
Now Derby are aiming for their next points against QPR on Monday night and are banking on home advantage more than anything else. The Rams have only lost one of their ten home games at Pride Park this season. That defeat came against Blackburn Rovers just under a month ago.
It was also only the second home game in the Championship in which Derby County conceded more than one goal. Speaking of conceding goals, the Rams have the fourth-best defensive record in the league, conceding just 18 goals in 19 matchdays. Only promotion contenders like Fulham, Bournemouth and West Brom have conceded fewer goals this season.
That defensive bulwark will be called upon on Monday evening. After all, the upcoming opponents from London have one of the strongest offences in the Championship. As in the home game against Fulham FC, Rooney will be spared any personnel worries against QPR. Major changes in the starting eleven can therefore be ruled out.
Predicted line-up of Derby:
Roos – Byrne, Davies, Jagielka, Forsyth – Shinnie, Thompson, Bird – Knight, Kazim-Richards, Lawrence
Last matches played by Derby:
Championship
11/24 2021 – Fulham 0 – 0 Derby
11/21 2021 – Derby 3 – 2 Bournemouth
11/06 2021 – Millwall 1 – 1 Derby
11/03 2021 – Barnsley 2 – 1 Derby
10/30 2021 – Derby 1 – 2 Blackburn
QPR – Statistics & current form
In contrast to Monday’s opponents, Queens Park Rangers are currently fighting for promotion to the English top flight. After 19 matchdays, the Rangers from London are on the sixth and thus last starting place for the promotion playoffs. If they are successful on Monday night, there is even a chance that they could finish third and close the gap on the direct promotion places.
As QPR’s recent run of form shows, the Londoners go into the away game against the league’s bottom side in fine form. Since the defeat against Peterborough on matchday 14 of the Championship, QPR have remained unbeaten. Meanwhile, Rangers have not lost for five matchdays in a row.
Most recently, Mark Warburton’s team celebrated two wins in a row and even went without conceding a goal in both games. This is commendable for the otherwise susceptible back line, which had conceded 24 goals in the previous 17 matchdays, giving them an average of 1.26 goals conceded per league match.
Do Rangers continue their run of form?
If the third win in a row now comes, odds of 2.50 are paid out on Derby vs. QPR. However, a prediction on this is more than daring, especially as QPR have not been convincing away from home at all. In nine away games, Rangers only have a record of 3-2-4. Before the draw in Blackpool and the away win in Cardiff, there were even four away defeats in a row.
The only encouraging thing ahead of Monday’s game is the last result at Derby’s Pride Park. QPR, in fact, won their away game against the Rams last term, making it the first time they have won a league game at Derby County since May 2014. Prior to that, there had been five consecutive no away wins at the Rams.
Like Wayne Rooney, Mark Warburton will be at his best for Monday’s game. At the moment, only one player, Sam Field, is on the Rangers’ lazaretto, and there are no other absentees.
Predicted line-up of QPR:
Dieng – Dickie, Dunne, Barbet – Adomah, Amos, Johansen, Wallace – Chair, Willock – Austin
Last matches played by QPR:
Championship
11/24 2021 – Queens Park Rangers 1 – 0 Huddersfield
11/19 2021 – Queens Park Rangers 2 – 0 Luton
11/06 2021 – Blackpool 1 – 1 Queens Park Rangers
11/03 2021 – Cardiff 0 – 1 Queens Park Rangers
10/29 2021 – Queens Park Rangers 1 – 1 Nottingham Forest
Derby – QPR Direct comparison / H2H record
This is the 27th time the two clubs have met in the English second division. So far, the direct comparison in the second highest English division is led by Derby County. The Rams have won ten and drawn nine of their 26 second division matches against QPR. Derby, on the other hand, lost only seven out of 26 games.
Last season, both clubs squandered home advantage. QPR celebrated a 1-0 win at the Rams’ Pride Park, while Derby were also beaten 1-0 by Rangers at the Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium.
Derby – QPR Tip
With their rivals floundering in the promotion race, QPR have the chance to close the gap on the direct promotion places and move into third in the Championship with a win at Derby County on Monday night. However, Monday’s opponents from the East Midlands are not an easy hurdle to clear.
Although Derby are in last place, the Rams’ current league position should not be overestimated with regard to Monday’s game. The recent results of Derby County show how much potential Wayne Rooney’s team has. Derby took four points against promotion contenders such as Bournemouth and Fulham recently.
We therefore expect a match of equals between Derby vs. QPR on Monday evening and, like the bookmakers, do not see a clear favourite on the 1X2 market. However, the tendency is to bet on a low-scoring encounter between the two clubs. In the last six matches involving QPR, bets on less than 2.5 goals have paid off.
Because in 89% of all QPR away games at least one goal has been scored after the break, we place our bet on Derby v QPR at reasonable odds on “More goals in the 2nd half”. We use six units for this. Alternatively, we recommend betting on a draw before the end of the second half.
