Will FSV follow up the chest-burster with a liberating blow?

There’s an old saying that soccer is the most beautiful pastime in the world. For Torsten Lieberknecht, the sporting side of things has actually taken a back seat this week. Because his wife suffered a stroke, the SV Darmstadt 98 coach will not be available for an indefinite period. Get well soon at this point

Without the head coach, the Lilies had to prepare for the important basement duel against FSV Mainz 05. Although it can be assumed that the team will give their all for their promoted coach and his family, the omens ahead of the clash against the Rheinhessen side seem anything but rosy. This is also underlined by the betting odds, which are lower for an away win in the Darmstadt v Mainz match. The Red & Whites are therefore even the favorites at Böllenfalltor

This assessment is again due to the fact that the Nullfünfer were finally able to record their first win of the season under the management of interim coach Jan Siewert in the previous week. If FSV take the momentum of their 2-0 win over CL contenders RB Leipzig into Saturday afternoon’s encounter, the chances of a second FSV treble in a row between Darmstadt and Mainz are not bad at all. There should also be no shortage of potential celebration opportunities after the half-hour drive home, as the new carnival season traditionally kicks off on 11.11., including in the carnival stronghold of Mainz, of course.

Darmstadt – statistics & current form

After the 2:1 away win at FC Augsburg on matchday seven, SV Darmstadt 98 seemed to have finally arrived in the top flight. The second three-pointer in a row at the time lifted the promoted team up to eleventh place and was a successful start. However, this was followed by three consecutive defeats, which once again called into question the suitability of the South Hessians for the first division.

In the three matches against RB Leipzig, Bayern and VfL Bochum, a whopping 13 (!) goals were conceded. Once again, it became clear that the biggest problem is still the defense. No other team has even come close to conceding as many goals as the Lilies, who still had the best defense in Bundesliga 2 in the previous season. In the long history of the Bundesliga, only 1. FC Saarbrücken and Tennis Borussia Berlin have conceded more goals after ten matchdays.

The Lieberknecht assistants have to reshuffle the starting eleven again

The fact that we see the 15th-placed team in the table, who could even slip to last place in a worst-case scenario this weekend, as underdogs against the long-standing first division side from the carnival stronghold is also due to the home side’s tight personnel situation. Klaus Gjasula, Matej Maglica and captain Fabian Holland will be missing three regular players from the defense due to suspension. Holland’s absence in particular will be difficult to compensate for, as he now plays a very important role in central midfield as an aggressive leader and stabilizer.

As if the problems weren’t complex enough, the Lilies also have a weakness at home. Only four points have been scored in the five home games so far. The 14 goals conceded, an average of almost three per game, will no doubt also be a thorn in the side of the entire coaching staff at home, although at least the offensive output is respectable. The newly promoted team scored at least one goal in all five of the aforementioned home matches, with a total of ten goals

Predicted Darmstadt line-up:

Mainz – Statistics & current form

The long-suffering supporters of FSV Mainz 05 had to wait until the tenth matchday before the first win of the season was finally secured. Significantly, this three-pointer came less than 48 hours after Bo Svensson announced his retirement. With tears in his eyes, the crowd favorite passed the baton to U23 coach Jan Siewert, who obviously made the right adjustments and was able to set a real exclamation mark with the Nullfünfern against RB Leipzig (2:0). Although not all that glitters is gold despite the first clean sheet of the season, it was clear that the club from the Rheinhessen had clearly sold themselves short in the first nine matchdays.

As their self-confidence has now been given a huge boost and the first three-pointer could serve as a final chestburster, we are not averse to predicting an away win for Darmstadt against Mainz. The fact that the Red & Whites have now been waiting for a win in nine away matches in the Bundesliga plays at most a subordinate, hardly relevant role in our considerations after the latest impressions and the positive momentum following the change of coach.

Will Mainz counter the Lilies?

An advantage on Saturday afternoon could also be that the Lilies may not be able to expose the weaknesses of the  Nullfünfer. Onisiwo and Co. conceded no fewer than eight of their 24 goals in the final quarter of an hour. However, there is currently only one team in the Bundesliga that has yet to score a goal in the last 15 minutes of a match: SV Darmstadt 98!

Admittedly, our assessment of this match is not only based on statistics, but also on subjective impressions. On the one hand, we rate the Rheinhessen squad as stronger than the SVD98 line-up. On the other hand, the fact that Lieberknecht’s side have to play at home in such an important match and want to win with their own fans behind them could play in their favor. FSV can cause problems for the occasionally sluggish Lilies defense, especially in their transitional play. Should top talent Brajan Gruda, who was missing against Leipzig last week, return to the team, the Darmstadt vs Mainz odds on the visitors offer attractive value.

Predicted Mainz line-up:

Darmstadt – Mainz Direct comparison / H2H balance

These teams have only faced each other four times in the Bundesliga. Between 2015 and 2017, there were two Mainz victories, one Darmstadt win and one draw. However, their time together in the second division is much longer in the past and is therefore completely irrelevant for the upcoming match. More than six years after the last head-to-head clash, the cards will be completely reshuffled

Darmstadt – Mainz betting tip

Deep in the basement of the table, there will be a neighborhood duel on Saturday as part of the 11th matchday in the Bundesliga. Darmstadt will host Mainz. According to the betting odds, the visitors from Rheinhessen have the better chance of three points, which is mainly due to the developments of the past week.

The Lilies lost their home game against VfL Bochum last weekend and will now be without captain Holland as well as Maglica and Gjasula, who are already suspended. Apart from that, head coach Torsten Lieberknecht will not be available until further notice. Relying purely on the emotionality and motivation that certainly exists is not enough for us to place a bet on the South Hessians. Especially in view of the fact that FSV finally celebrated their first win against RB Leipzig 2:0 and would like to take the next step out of the crisis with the liberation blow behind them

We are therefore more inclined to bet on Siewert’s team, which we rate as slightly stronger in terms of quality and will exploit the host’s defensive vulnerability (32 goals conceded already). We risk a stake of five units on the Darmstadt vs Mainz betting tip for an away win. The top odds of 2.37 can be played at Bwin