Whose dry spell ended on Sunday afternoon?

If Torsten Lieberknecht didn’t enjoy legend status in Darmstadt and hadn’t fixed promotion with the Lilies just a few months ago, the likeable soccer coach might already have to seriously fear for his job. Three defeats on the first three days of Bundesliga matches and the embarrassing DFB Cup exit at a regional league club have nevertheless done lasting damage to the coach’s reputation.

But because the reigning second-division champions had to drop few internationals during the international break compared to many other first-division teams, those in charge are now hoping for their first win on points at the fourth attempt. However, the team from the Lower Rhine region, which also got off to a weak start, will fight back with all its might in southern Hesse and will be looking for its first win. As a result, it is difficult to make a prediction on the outcome of the match between Darmstadt and Gladbach.

This is also due to the fact that it is difficult for us to make a prediction about what kind of game will develop in advance of the match Darmstadt vs Gladbach. The Lilies are not a big fan of controlled short passing and dominant possession. The Foals have also so far failed to prove that they have already internalized a clear philosophy with the ball. Can we therefore expect a tough, low-scoring match, in which the first gross mistake may lead to a small preliminary decision? The answer will be revealed on Sunday afternoon from 17:30.

Darmstadt – statistics & current form

Until two weeks ago, Darmstadt 98 had never started a first division season with three defeats in the first three matchdays. That has now changed. In Frankfurt (0:1), at home against Union Berlin (1:4) and finally in Leverkusen (1:5), there were some heavy defeats, which not only put worry lines on the foreheads of everyone involved, but also raised the crucial question of whether the Lilies are at all competitive in the top flight?

The fact is that the reigning second-division champions can only entertain faint hopes of staying in the league if they manage to perform at the upper limit for long stretches of the season. In the first three matches, the South Hessians were able to keep up with their opponents at times, but in total Fabian Holland and Co. allowed themselves too many lacks of concentration and simple mistakes, which could also be summarized under the term “apprenticeship money”.

Success can only come from an improved defense

Even before the first international break, however, it became clear that the 98ers are not particularly well advised to get involved in open games. Significantly, the most promising chance of winning a point so far came in the aforementioned 0:1 defeat in Frankfurt. In other words, the foundation of the Lilien game must lie in the defense. In front, a single action or a standard situation may be enough to get on the scoreboard.

Since we assume that work against the ball was the focus of the numerous training sessions in the course of the two-week break, an improvement can be expected. Certainly, it is risky to recommend an under bet given the statistically weakest defense in the league (ten goals conceded) and seven defeats in the most recent eight season-long competitive matches (4:22 goals), yet in the duel Darmstadt vs Gladbach the odds on rather few goals in the course of the match bring an extremely solid value.

Predicted lineup of Darmstadt:

Darmstadt (Expected lineup) 3-5-2

Gladbach – statistics & current form

Even before the start of this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach was predicted to have a difficult year.

But this weak start on paper still needs to be put into perspective somewhat, because after all, the last two opponents were Leverkusen and Bayern. That Borussia cannot currently compete with these heavyweights was shown by the transfer period alone, in which many “big names” left the former German champions to take on more demanding tasks. The new start in terms of personnel, which also goes hand in hand with the implementation of a new style of play under coach Gerardo Seoane, therefore still seems to take time.

Gladbach in search of a new identity

Accordingly, a clear identity has not yet been discernible at the Foals. However, that in turn is also due to the fact that against Leverkusen and Bayern the focus was on the defense and the switching game. On Sunday, the 16th in the table will therefore have to present other solutions in the game with the ball. And at best with more balance and protection than in the spectacular 4:4 in Augsburg, which should not serve as a benchmark for the away game at Böllenfalltor.

Finally, it should be mentioned that Borussia had to call up some international players during the international break and therefore may even have a small disadvantage against the Lilies. Only a single victory in the review of the past 20 (!) BL guest games has also done something to the heads of the players.

To make matters worse, no other team had a lower value of “Expected goals” on the first match days than the eleven from the Lower Rhine (xG: 3.0). For this reason, among others, it would also be a justifiable approach to take a closer look at the odds on a point win for the promoted team between Darmstadt and Gladbach. Alternatively, a bet on a goalless first half can be considered, because given the existing offensive weakness, certainly neither team wants to fall behind.

Predicted Gladbach lineup

Gladbach (Expected lineup) 4-2-3-1

Darmstadt – Gladbach Direct comparison / H2H balance

There have been eight encounters in the Bundesliga so far, with Borussia Mönchengladbach winning exactly half of them. The Darmstadt side, meanwhile, has only managed a single win, meaning that the Foals have not managed to record more points on average against any other current first division team in the top flight than against the Lilies (1.88). Caution is still advised from the perspective of the Lower Rhinelanders, however, as Gladbach lost 2-1 at Böllenfalltor in the second round of the preseason cup…

Darmstadt – Gladbach Tip

Darmstadt and Gladbach will play the last match of the fourth matchday in the Bundesliga on Sunday afternoon. According to the betting odds, the guests have the advantage on their side, although Seoane’s eleven has only managed to pick up a single point from three games so far and has also conceded nine goals already.

The southern Hessians, however, are in no way inferior to their Rhineland counterparts. Quite the opposite, because the lilies are still completely pointless and place with already ten goals against besides the weakest defense of the league. Who thinks because of the so far everything else as saddle-firmly working defense rows now however a goal spectacle at the Böllenfalltor, might be bitterly disappointed. We expect more of a tough match with few goals.

That’s exactly why we’ve gotten creative with our betting selection and put a combined tip on a maximum of one goal in the first half and a maximum of three goals after 90 minutes between Darmstadt and Gladbach.