Can the Billy Goats break free at their favorite opponent?

Twelve competitive matches have been played between the two opponents in the Friday evening Bundesliga game so far and the Billy Goats have only lost one of these twelve games (nine wins, two draws). Hopes are correspondingly high in the Domstädter camp that they can force a turnaround at the start of matchday 13. However, betting on a win for Darmstadt against Cologne is anything but a foregone conclusion. After all, the Effzeh have now gone seven Bundesliga away games without a win (three draws, four defeats)

The reason for Cologne’s weakness on the road is the fact that no other first division team has scored as few away goals as the Billy Goats (just three). Now, however, Steffen Baumgart’s team are visiting by far the weakest defense in the Bundesliga. The Lilies have already conceded 33 goals, which is why the forecast for Darmstadt against Cologne tends to favor a high-scoring rather than a low-scoring basement duel

The Hessians are now without a win in five Bundesliga games (two draws, three defeats). However, the Lilies are certainly not out of the question, especially as the visitors from the cathedral city have not kept a clean sheet in 20 Bundesliga games this season and have struggled to score goals themselves. The three-way system should therefore be abandoned.

However, because we think the Effzeh can score at least one goal in view of the defensive permeability of the Hessians, we find the greatest value in the bet that both teams will score in the Friday evening game.

Darmstadt – Statistics & current form

SV Darmstadt 98 returned to the top flight of German soccer this summer as runners-up in the Bundesliga 2. Here, the Hessians’ declared goal is to somehow manage to stay in the league.

After twelve of 34 league games played, the interim conclusion is not unconditionally positive. As things stand, however, the desired goal has been achieved. Although the Lilies have picked up just nine points out of a possible 36, they are currently 15th in the table and just above the bottom line

Winless for five league games in a row

However, the Blue & Whites are just three points clear of 18th place. So if Darmstadt’s bet on an away win against Cologne pans out, the Lilies could theoretically drop to the bottom of the table.

However, the recent record certainly speaks against Torsten Lieberknecht’s team. Currently, only 1. FC Union Berlin have been waiting longer for another win in the Bundesliga (ten games) than Darmstadt (five games; two draws, three defeats). They have also lost three of their first six league games at home in the Böllenfalltor stadium (one win, two draws)

The weakest defense in the Bundesliga

Hesse’s biggest problem is their lack of defensive stability. SVD conceded a staggering 33 goals in the first twelve matchdays. This makes Lieberknecht’s team the Bundesliga’s absolute shooting gallery.

Moreover, once the Lilies fell behind, the game was always over. Darmstadt 98 are the only one of the 18 Bundesliga clubs who have yet to pick up a single point after falling behind in the 2023/24 season. The mission to somehow avoid a home defeat against bottom club Cologne will therefore not be easy.

Darmstadt’s expected line-up:

Cologne – Statistics & current form

After their recent 1-0 defeat at home to FC Bayern Munich, 1 FC Köln are once again in the red lantern in the Bundesliga. So far, the Billy Goats have only won one of their first twelve games of the 2023/24 season.

The haul of just six points out of a possible 36 even corresponds to Cologne’s second-weakest Bundesliga season of all time. Only in the 2017/18 season were there even fewer points at the same time (just two). In the end, as is well known, the last Bundesliga relegation in the history of the cathedral city was recorded

Not won any of the last seven Bundesliga away games

However, Steffen Baumgart’s side still have plenty of time to rectify their precarious situation. An away win at the Hessians, against whom they have won nine of their previous twelve competitive matches, would at least allow the Effzeh to overtake the Lilies.

In principle, the odds are also in Darmstadt’s favor against Cologne, although they have not won in seven Bundesliga away games in a row (three draws, four defeats). Only Werder Bremen and Heidenheim (just one each) have picked up fewer points away from home than the Billy Goats (two) in 2023/24

Without a clean sheet in 20 consecutive Bundesliga games

Particularly problematic: No other Bundesliga team is anywhere near as tame in forward play as Baumgart’s side, who have the weakest offense in the Bundesliga with nine goals from twelve league games. Away from home, they have scored just three goals in six games.

To make matters worse, the lack of offensive penetration is not even compensated for by defensive stability. The Billy Goats have not kept a clean sheet in 20 Bundesliga games this season. That is the longest consecutive streak of conceding at least one goal among all current Bundesliga clubs. A points haul at Böllenfalltor may therefore only be possible if the offensive adjustments are tightened in the first instance.

Predicted Cologne line-up:

Darmstadt – Cologne Direct comparison / H2H balance

Head to head: 1 – 2 – 9

The two teams have faced each other twelve times in competitive matches to date, with 1. FC Köln clearly leading the direct comparison with nine wins. The Billy Goats also won their last visit to the south of Hesse with a commanding 3:0, but were beaten by Darmstadt 98 for the first time in their last match to date on April 26, 2019 at home with a 2:1 defeat

Darmstadt – Cologne betting tip

In the run-up to Friday evening’s match between Darmstadt and Cologne, the bookmakers’ odds are slightly in favor of the visitors. However, we can’t really agree with the cathedral city’s role as favorites. The Effzeh have been waiting for another three-pointer in seven Bundesliga away games (three draws, four defeats), have scored the fewest away goals of the 2023/24 season (just three) and have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last 20 Bundesliga games.

This is offset by the defensive vulnerability of the Hessians. With 33 goals conceded, SVD are currently the shooting gallery of the league. However, it is not completely out of the question that Darmstadt’s prediction of a home win for the Lilies against Cologne will work out, which is why we are refraining from using the three-way system.