Will the Eagles suffer their fifth PL home defeat in a row?

Just before Christmas, the English Premier League has one more regular matchday on the agenda, which opens on Thursday evening with the A23 derby in south London. This fixture is named after the highway that leads directly from Sussex on the south coast of England to the capital. However, the rivalry between the two clubs dates back to the 1970s, but has waned somewhat in recent decades. More important than prestige, glory and honor are the three points that would suit the clubs rather well

The home side in particular, who have now been waiting six league games for a full taste of success in the top flight and have suffered a series of setbacks recently, especially at home, are under a certain amount of pressure. After last weekend’s sensational 2-2 draw at Manchester City, Hogdson’s side will now be hoping for a definitive victory. However, the bookmakers are skeptical in this regard and are offering significantly higher odds for a home win between Crystal Palace and Brighton

The role of favorites therefore lies with the guests of coach Roberto de Zerbi, who have also lacked the necessary consistency in recent weeks. In terms of quality, the Seagulls are certainly a little stronger, but it will be exciting to see whether the ninth-placed Sussex side can find solutions against a very deep-lying home side and break down the South Londoners’ defensive bulwark. If you’re looking for an away win in the A23 derby between Crystal Palace and Brighton, you can get 2.25 at Interwetten.

Crystal Palace – Statistics & current form

When it was announced in the summer that Crystal Palace would continue with Roy Hodgson as head coach into the 2023/24 season, this decision was not only well received by the Eagles’ fans. Although the 76-year-old, who coached 22 club and national teams during his career, is owed an eternal debt of gratitude in south London thanks to his many years of service, this appointment also meant that the old-fashioned and largely destructive defensive soccer of the former Three Lions coach would return to Selhurst Park.

After a relatively promising start with just two defeats in the first eight matchdays, the mood has since changed. Of the last nine Premier League games, the capital team have only managed to win one. Instead, they have suffered six defeats. Since the beginning of October, no other club in the top tier of English soccer has been able to celebrate fewer victories than Hodgson’s team, who are 15th in the table with an eight-point lead over the relegation zone and are still reeling from the aforementioned start to the season, but also from the weak competition in the basement

Crystal Palace have lost their home strength

With regard to the style of play, however, the supporters’ fears have been confirmed. The focus is on working against the ball, plan A in offense is the transition game, plan B are standards or long balls/second balls. This is by no means a pretty sight, which is why criticism of Hodgson has increased in recent weeks. The Eagles have been particularly weak at home. They have lost all of their last four PL home games. For the first time since the winter of 2016/17, a fifth home defeat in a row looms on Thursday evening.

The disappointing result at Selhurst Park, which is also reflected in the penultimate place in the home table and is supported by the fact that no other club has scored fewer goals at home (seven), therefore serves as a powerful argument to refrain from predicting a positive result for the hosts in the Crystal Palace v Brighton clash. To make matters worse, the Eagles have picked up just one point in five midweek matches (Tuesday to Thursday) in 2023 (one draw, four defeats) and have failed to score in all four defeats.

Predicted Crystal Palace line-up:

Brighton – Statistics & current form

Brighton & Hove Albion Football Club were unable to maintain the flow of their great start to the season. Five wins from their opening six games were followed by a six-match winless streak that saw the Seagulls slip down the table. In recent weeks, coach Roberto de Zerbi’s team has been able to regain its composure and raise its performance level. Time and again, however, the effort put in at national level was not commensurate with the return. Ninth place, three points behind sixth place and four points ahead of the bottom half of the table, is still a respectable result.

In general, the mood in the southern English seaside resort is pretty good. The decisive factor for this was the really good group stage in the UEFA Europa League, in which the debutants from Sussex were able to leave three renowned clubs behind: Olympique Marseille, Ajax Amsterdam and AEK Athens. Four consecutive wins without conceding a goal led to group victory and a place in the last 16 of the competition. The match on Thursday evening should therefore be a good omen for last year’s sixth-placed team. At league level, Brighton have also won five of eight games played on Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays

Brighton’s offense knows what to do with possession

In order to justify the prediction of an away win between Crystal Palace and Brighton, the strong offense must be highlighted first and foremost. 33 goals have been scored in the 17 matchdays so far. Meanwhile, the 15 goals scored away from home are only surpassed by Tottenham and Manchester City. In any case, the Seagulls can expect a very different game at Selhurst Park from last weekend at Arsenal, when de Zerbi’s side were hopelessly outclassed, making just 13 touches in the opposition penalty area, only managing one shot on target and ultimately going home with a deserved 2-0 defeat.

We therefore expect a reaction from the blue and whites, who have enough quality to win a three-pointer. Furthermore, it can be assumed that the Seagulls will find good/creative solutions against the Eagles’ compact defensive block and that the predicted matchup with a lot of possession will play into the hands of the ninth-placed team. If the favorites also get a grip on the rest of the defense and possibly take an early lead, it is even worth considering the odds for the handicap away win (-1) between Crystal Palace and Brighton. The 4.33 at Bet365 certainly brings value in our opinion.

Predicted Brighton line-up:

Crystal Palace – Brighton Direct comparison / H2H balance

The clubs have faced each other 16 times in England’s top flight. The majority of these encounters have ended in draws (seven). The statistics also show six wins for Brighton and just three victories for Crystal Palace. In the Eagles’ last four home games against Brighton at Selhurst Park, however, there has been no winner. The clubs have drawn 1-1 four times in a row, with Brighton narrowly winning the most recent head-to-head 1-0 at home. At that time, however, Patrick Vieira was still on the bench for the south Londoners.

Crystal Palace – Brighton tip

The 18th matchday in the Premier League kicks off on Thursday evening with the A23 derby between Crystal Palace and Brighton. According to the betting odds, the favorites are the visitors, who are significantly better placed in the standings, have picked up nine more points than their opponents and also have qualitative advantages on their side.

Coach de Zerbi’s side have also won just one of their last four league games, but will face an opponent who have needed just one win in their last nine PL matches. The Eagles have lost four in a row at home. Hodgson’s side have also failed to win their last four PL home games against Brighton. Although the 2-2 draw against Manchester City at the weekend has boosted their confidence, it should not be forgotten that the Londoners have only benefited from the reigning champions’ proliferation of chances

We are therefore confident that the visitors’ active style of play will prevail against the reactive, destructive approach of the home side. The top odds of 2.25 on an away win mentioned at the beginning of this article look promising, which is why we’re backing the visitors to win the game before Crystal Palace v Brighton.