Can Arsenal slowly pull away?
Arsenal Football Club could be the big winners of matchday 31 in the Premier League. Indeed, should the Gunners win their away game at Selhurst Park against Crystal Palace on Monday night, they would take another big step towards Champions League return. With direct rivals Manchester United and Chelsea already losing out at the weekend, Arteta’s side will be desperate to capitalise on this.
If we look at the odds between Crystal Palace and Arsenal, it becomes clear that the bookmakers also believe that the current fourth-placed team in the table can win. On the three-way market, a 2.05 is currently offered at the top for the success of the guests. Nevertheless, the task will not be a foregone conclusion. On the one hand, it is a “derby” between two clubs in the capital, but on the other hand, the Eagles have already caused problems for some top teams in the past.
Palace’s last Premier League home game to date, for example, ended in a 0-0 draw against Manchester City a few weeks ago. In order to integrate the generally very stable defence into our assessment, it may well make sense to adjust the forecast between Crystal Palace and Arsenal to the extent that a draw is also taken into account. On balance, however, not many goals are to be expected. So a real test of patience awaits the gunners.
Crystal Palace – Statistics & current form
Crystal Palace are playing a mediocre season so far. Actually, the team of coach Patrick Vieira is emblematic of mediocrity in the Premier League. Currently in twelfth place, the train towards the European Cup has long since left the station. At the same time, the Londoners no longer need to worry about staying in the league. The almost even goal difference of 39:38 also underlines the quite appropriate description as a “grey mouse”.
After all, there is a ranking that the capital club leads: In fact, no other team in the Premier League has more draws to its name than the Eagles. They have shared the points with their opponents 13 times. On the other hand, there are only seven wins and nine defeats. Consequently, it is not an option for us to bet on a home win before Monday night’s match between Crystal Palace and Arsenal.
The Eagles are once again relying on their defence
The abysmal record on the first working day of the month also speaks in favour of this, as the Eagles have only won one of the last 15 Premier League matches that kicked off on a Monday evening (six draws, eight defeats). Nor does the statistic that Wilfried Zaha and co. have only recorded a single treble from the past 17 London derbies (eight draws, eight defeats) necessarily serve as an encouragement.
To make matters worse, Vieira’s charges are still looking for their first Premier League win at home in 2022. In five games, they have only managed a disappointing two points. In the last three matches at Selhurst Park, only three goals were scored in total. This is one of the reasons why we think it is very interesting to combine the betting odds for the double chance X2 with the under 3.5 between Crystal Palace and Arsenal. In seven of the last nine league games, the Under 3.5 bet would have gone through.
Only six teams have conceded fewer goals at home than the Eagles, who have already impressed defensively against Man City (0-0) and have also only suffered narrow 1-0 defeats against Liverpool or Chelsea this year. We expect a similar result on Monday. With the exception of the injured Olise and Zaha, who had to sit out training recently, all men are probably on board and coach Vieira can draw from the full against his former club.
Predicted line-up of Crystal Palace:
Guaita; Clyne, Andersen, Guehi, Mitchell; Gallagher, Kouyate, Hughes; Eze, Mateta, Edouard
Last matches played by Crystal Palace:
FA Cup
03/20 2022 – Crystal Palace 4 – 0 Everton
Premier League
03/14 2022 – Crystal Palace 0 – 0 Manchester City
03/05 2022 – Wolverhampton 0 – 2 Crystal Palace
FA Cup
03/01 2022 – Crystal Palace 2 – 1 Stoke
Premier League
02/26 2022 – Crystal Palace 1 – 1 Burnley
Arsenal – Statistics & current form
Arsenal are top of the league! No, they haven’t missed anything, of course. Manchester City still lead the standings in England’s top division ahead of Liverpool and Chelsea, but when it comes to how far players have slid on their knees in jubilation after scoring goals, the Gunners’ professionals are currently just ahead with 44 metres completed. The only annoyance is that this curious ranking does not award a fixed ticket to the top flight.
Nevertheless, the Londoners are on a very good path to make their comeback in the top flight next season. At the moment, Arteta’s team is in fourth place, three points ahead of Tottenham, who could still draw level on points on Sunday. But: Arsenal still have two games in hand and therefore a very promising starting position in the fight for the Champions League ranks.
Will Arsenal stay in the flow?
Should a prediction on the away win pay off in Monday night’s clash between Crystal Palace and Arsenal, the Gunners would move as close as two points to third-placed Chelsea in the table. This scenario does not seem improbable because, on the one hand, Arsenal are now unbeaten in four London derbies (three wins, one draw). On the other hand, the former champions have lost only one of the past 16 guest games at Selhurst Park at league level.
Another pro-argument in favour of the visitors is clearly their current form. Lacazette and Co. have won all of their last five away games. The last time there were more away victories in a row was in 2013 (eight). At home and away, they have won six of their last seven Premier League games
In terms of personnel, the Spanish coach, who has been in charge for more than two years now, has been criticised several times in that time, has even been on the verge of being sacked several times and is currently being celebrated by fans/media, can field almost all the key players. The only question mark is whether regular keeper Aaron Ramsdale, who could be replaced by Bernd Leno, will play. Bukayo Saka and Emil Smith-Rowe, who were not fit during the international break, seem to return in time. This should give the Gunners a real push, after all the youngsters have already combined to mark 18 goals (nine each).
Predicted Arsenal line-up:
Leno; Cedric, White, Gabriel, Tierney; Xhaka, Partey; Saka, Odegaard, Martinelli; Lacazette
Last matches played by Arsenal:
Premier League
03/19 2022 – Aston Villa 0 – 1 Arsenal FC
03/16 2022 – Arsenal FC 0 – 2 Liverpool FC
03/13 2022 – Arsenal FC 2 – 0 Leicester
03/06 2022 – Watford 2 – 3 Arsenal FC
02/24 2022 – Arsenal FC 2 – 1 Wolverhampton
Crystal Palace – Arsenal Direct Comparison / H2H Record
The first leg of these two teams mutated into a real spectacle at the Emirates Stadium. After a 1-0 half-time lead for Arsenal, Palace hit back after the break and were even 2-1 up until stoppage time. Finally, it was Lacazette who equalised 2-2 in the last second.
It was the fifth time in a row that Arsenal remained unbeaten against Crystal Palace. However, four of these five encounters ended in a draw. Nevertheless, the Gunners’ record against the Eagles is very good. Especially the fact that only one of the last 16 away games at Selhurst Park has been lost is a clear indication of how much the Gunners enjoy playing in the southern part of London.
Crystal Palace – Arsenal Tip
At the end of the 31st matchday, one of the most in-form teams in the English Premier League does the honours. Arsenal are the guests of Crystal Palace and, in our opinion, have a very good chance of making the short journey back from south London with three points.
This assessment is based on several factors. For example, the Gunners have won all of their last five away games in the league. Furthermore, the Eagles are still without a treble at home in the calendar year 2022. The disastrous record in direct duels and the fun fact regarding the “Monday weakness” of the home side provide further arguments that point more in the direction of the fourth-placed team in the table.
But to consider the other side of the coin as well, it should definitely be mentioned that the Vieira team has already been able to stand up well to some favourites this season. In particular, the good defence can sometimes lead to teams struggling despite having more possession and playing a lot of the game. This was seen recently in the 0-0 draw against Manchester City.
We therefore hedge our betting bets and play the X2 in combination with the Under 2.5 between Crystal Palace and Arsenal. If the Arteta eleven wins, it will probably be by a narrow margin. Not many goals are to be expected. Even a 0:0 or a 1:1 and thus the fifth draw in the past six direct duels between these teams would be included in our bet.
