Who will secure the direct ticket to Qatar?
For nine matchdays, Russia and Croatia marched practically in step through Group H of the 2022 World Cup Qualifiers. The Sbornaya picked up two points more than the reigning runners-up and go into the big showdown in Split with the better starting position. If the Kockasti want to win the group and the direct ticket to Qatar, they need a home victory against the Russian selection.
At least the bookmakers are confident that the Vatreni can turn the tide with a home win. In the run-up to the encounter between Croatia and Russia, the odds are clearly in favour of the home side, who warmed up in style with a 7-1 win in Malta on Thursday night.
However, the Russian attack was also in top form on Thursday night. In the style of a league leader, the Sbornaja dispatched Cyprus 6:0 at home in St. Petersburg. Moreover, any draw in Split will be enough for the Russians to consolidate their place at the top of the group and qualify for the 2022 World Cup.
It is clear that a team that falls behind must fight back at all costs. Accordingly, we see the greatest value in betting on Croatia against Russia, that both teams will score.
Croatia – Statistics & current form
The Croatian national football team missed only one of the last six World Cups (2010 in South Africa). The Kockasti even managed to reach the final for the first time in history at the last tournament in Russia in 2018, which they lost heavily to France.
As runners-up, the Vatreni are nevertheless desperate to make it to Qatar 2022, and the Russians, who were eliminated on penalties in the quarter-finals on their way to the final in 2018, stand in the way of Zlatko Dalić’s side reaching the finals.
Croatia need a home win
The Kockasti are two points behind. Accordingly, the Croatian team needs a home win against the Sbornaja in Split in order to get the direct ticket for Qatar. In the event of a draw or defeat, the Vatreni face the prospect of the play-offs.
The highly decorated team around captain Luka Modric will have to be correspondingly offensive in this home match. The first leg in Moscow on 1 September 2021 eventually produced a goalless draw as the two sturdy defences of both nations neutralised each other.
Only one defeat in their last nine competitive matches
The Kockasti are certainly encouraged by the fact that their recent record is extremely positive. Of their last nine competitive games, only the European Championship round of 16 match against Spain was lost with 3:5, when the score was also drawn after the regular playing time.
The hard-to-beat Kockasti, who have only conceded four goals in the 2022 World Cup qualifiers, will therefore be favourites going into the all-important home match.
Predicted line-up of Croatia:
Grbic – Sosa – Gvardiol – Caleta-Car – Juranovic – Pasalic – Brozovic – Modric – Perisic – Majer – Kramaric
Last matches played by Croatia:
World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. H
11/11 2021 – Malta 1 – 7 Croatia
10/11 2021 – Croatia 2 – 2 Slovakia
10/08 2021 – Cyprus 0 – 3 Croatia
09/07 2021 – Croatia 3 – 0 Slovenia
09/04 2021 – Slovakia 0 – 1 Croatia
Russia – Statistics & current form
Since the Russian national football team started competing as an independent national team after the break-up of the Soviet Union, there have been a total of four World Cups with Russian participation and three World Cups without.
Measured against the fact that the Sbornaya did not have to qualify for the 2018 World Cup in their own country, there are as many successful qualifications as failed qualifications on record. In 1998 and 2010, the Russians twice failed to qualify before the play-offs.
Recent five match wins in a row
Accordingly, the big goal is to avoid second place at all costs and avoid the play-offs by getting the top position in Group H over the finish line. A draw in Split is already enough for the Sbornaja, which is why Valeri Karpin’s team travels to the Balkans according to the motto “no losing”.
The Russian national football team has a lot of wind at its back. In a 6-0 home win over Cyprus on Thursday evening, Russia celebrated its fifth consecutive victory in a competitive match. Just like Croatia, the Karpin team has not lost a single match since being eliminated from the EURO 2021.
Only one goal conceded in the last six internationals
The Russians’ surge is particularly remarkable because there are just four legionnaires in Valeri Karpin’s squad who do not earn their money in the Russian Premier League, which is not one of the top leagues in Europe.
The Sbornaya, who have conceded just one goal in their last six international matches, have been difficult to beat, especially because of their strong mixture of attacking nous and defensive stability. The odds on Croatia winning a direct ticket to Qatar against Russia are accordingly good.
Predicted Russia line-up:
Safonov – Terekhov – Osipenko – Diveev – Sutormin – Golovin – Fornin – Erokhin – Mostovoy – Miranchuk – Smolov
Last Games of Russia:
World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. H
11/11 2021 – Russia 6 – 0 Cyprus
10/11 2021 – Slovenia 1 – 2 Russia
10/08 2021 – Russia 1 – 0 Slovakia
09/07 2021 – Russia 2 – 0 Malta
09/04 2021 – Cyprus 0 – 2 Russia
Croatia – Russia Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 1 – 4 – 0
The two teams have only faced each other five times so far and the Kockasti are at least encouraged by their record, as they have never lost a match against Russia. However, the fact that four of the five games ended in a draw – including the 2018 World Cup quarter-final, which was decided on penalties – should also fuel the Sbornaja’s hopes of picking up a vital point in Split.
Croatia – Russia tip
For Croatia against Russia, our prediction is primarily shaped by the starting position. The fact that the Kockasti need victory to win the group should mean that the defensively strong Sbornaja, who have only conceded one goal in their last six international matches, will be stirring concrete. However, the reigning runners-up, who warmed up in a 7-1 win in Malta on Thursday, have the game-changing tools to crack that same Russian defence.
While a 0-0 draw is conceivable at the break, the match is likely to pick up speed in the second half at the latest. If one team scores a goal, the opponent will have to strike back. Accordingly, there is a lot of value in betting on goals on both sides.
The betting odds for both teams to score are 2.06 for Croatia against Russia. At Unibet, we invest five units in this tip.
