Will WBA prevail in the West Midlands Derby?

Derby time in the Championship! Coventry and West Brom, two promotion rivals from the West Midlands, meet on Saturday. Both clubs are currently in the starting positions for the promotion play-offs, whereby the position for the “Baggies” from West Bromwich is by no means satisfactory.

At the beginning of the season, WBA were among the favourites for promotion. Less than a month ago, West Brom were in one of the two direct promotion places, but in the meantime, WBA head coach Valérien Ismael’s squad has already slipped to fourth place due to the ongoing form crisis. West Bromwich Albion’s last win came on matchday 16

Coventry, on the other hand, moved past their rivals with six points from their last four games – including three draws, mind you – and are in sixth and thus the last play-off place. Last week, the Sky Blues defied promotion hopefuls Bournemouth and now Coventry will be aiming for another point against WBA.

The best bookmakers nevertheless see the sixth-placed team in the table as underdogs. For Coventry vs. West Brom, odds of only 3.10 are available for tip 1. This assessment is mainly based on the recent home record against WBA. The last time the Sky Blues won a derby was in December 2003.

Coventry – Statistics & current form

Last season, Coventry City FC secured their place in the Championship. This year, the “Sky Blues” are aiming for promotion and have already set the course for it. After 20 match days, head coach Mark Robins’ team is in one of the four play-off places in the Championship.

Since matchday 16, the Sky Blues have not lost in the second highest English division. Most recently, there was one win and three draws, including the most recent draw against AFC Bournemouth, the Championship’s runners-up.

The result against the Cherries was surprising, as the Sky Blues played the match against the second-placed team away from home and improved their poor away record. Against West Brom, Coventry will now benefit from home advantage in the West Midlands derby.

Will home strength be backed up against WBA?

The importance of home advantage for Coventry is shown by the points haul at the Ricoh Arena so far. In ten home games, there have been 23 points for the Sky Blues with a record of 7-2-1. Only against Swansea City did the sixth-placed team from the West Midlands fail to pick up a point. This makes Coventry City statistically the second strongest home team in the league.

Mark Robins’ side have already won the top match against Fulham FC (4:1) at home this season. Given the current form of the Sky Blues, it would not be out of the question to bet on Coventry vs. West Brom at good odds, especially as the odds are above the 3.00 mark in the event of success.

Coventry have scored 1.90 goals per game in ten home games at their own ground. Vitor Gyökeres, who leads the Sky Blues’ internal goalscoring charts with nine goals and two assists, has played a major role in this success. Last week Gyökeres was only used as a wild card. It is quite possible that this time a place in the starting eleven beckons.

Coventry’s likely line-up:
Moore; Rose, McFadzean, Hyam; Kane, Hamer, Sheaf, Maatsen; O’Hare; Godden, Gyökeres

Last matches played by Coventry:

Championship
11/27 2021 – Bournemouth 2 – 2 Coventry

11/23 2021 – Coventry 0 – 0 Birmingham

11/20 2021 – Sheffield United 0 – 0 Coventry

11/06 2021 – Coventry 3 – 2 Bristol City

11/02 2021 – Coventry 1 – 2 Swansea

West Brom – Statistics & current form

In recent weeks, West Bromwich Albion have finally squandered the momentum of their promising start to the season. After all, there was only one win for the “Baggies” in the last six matchdays of the Championship. WBA head coach Valerien Ismael’s team even lost two of the last six games.

Most recently, the relegated PL team has struggled to find a way forward. Neither in the defeat against Huddersfield nor in the two recent draws against Blackpool and Nottingham did West Brom manage to score. However, at least the Baggies’ defensive bulwark left a positive impression.

WBA’s defence is the team’s showpiece anyway. Along with promotion contenders such as Fulham and Bournemouth, West Brom currently have the strongest defence in the Championship. The “Baggies” have conceded only 16 goals in 20 matchdays so far – on average less than one goal conceded per league match.

Are WBA’s away woes getting worse?

A total of eleven of the 16 goals conceded have come away from home, where West Bromwich Albion currently stand with a record of 3-3-4 after ten away games. West Brom are winless in their last five away games. The former first division club lost four of the five away games.

The next setback cannot be ruled out against the Sky Blues, who are strong at home. If you want to bet on Coventry vs. West Brom, you can get odds of up to 2.40 at the top in case of success.

WBA head coach Valerien Ismael is only expected to be without Bryan and O’Shea through injury for the West Midlands derby. Snodgrass and Zohore, on the other hand, will be back in the squad line-up. A starting eleven for the two attacking players cannot be ruled out on Saturday, especially as the WBA offence has not made a good impression of late anyway.

Predicted West Brom line-up:
Johnstone; Kipré, Bartley, Clarke; Furlong, Phillips, Mowatt, Townsend; Diangana, Grant; Hugill

Last matches played by West Brom:

Championship
11/26 2021 – West Bromwich Albion 0 – 0 Nottingham Forest

11/23 2021 – Blackpool 0 – 0 West Bromwich Albion

11/20 2021 – Huddersfield 1 – 0 West Bromwich Albion

11/06 2021 – West Bromwich Albion 1 – 1 Middlesboro

11/03 2021 – West Bromwich Albion 1 – 0 Hull

Coventry – West Brom Direct comparison / H2H record

This is the eleventh time these two clubs have met in the Championship. West Bromwich lead the direct comparison against Coventry City with a record of 7-1-2. The Baggies have lost only one of their last eight competitive matches against Coventry.

Since their last derby defeat, WBA have gone unbeaten on four consecutive occasions. The last time Coventry and West Brom met was in March 2010. West Brom won 1-0 in the West Midlands derby in the second leg of the 2009/10 Championship. Prior to that, the two clubs had played out a goalless draw in the first leg.

Coventry – West Brom Tip

The visitors from West Brom will be looking to end their current form crisis and score three points for the first time since matchday 16. Hosts Coventry City, on the other hand, are aiming for a fifth consecutive point. Last week, the Sky Blues scored away from home against second-placed Bournemouth.

This time Coventry even benefits from home advantage. The importance of home advantage for the Sky Blues is shown by their home record this season. Coventry are level on points with Fulham in second place in the home table with a slightly worse goal difference. It is quite possible that this record will also be extended against the stumbling “Baggies”.

Saturday’s opponents of the Sky Blues have not won any of their last five away games. WBA even conceded four defeats in this period. We therefore see value in the high odds on a derby win for the hosts and dare to take an outsider’s tip with a stake of five units.