Can Colombia defend their 4th place?
A look at the table of the South America qualifying group leaves a clear impression at first glance. The top favourites Brazil and Argentina are running their own circles in front. After them, the surprise team from Ecuador is in third place. Behind them, Colombia and Peru are tied in fourth and fifth place.
Although Colombia are clear favourites going into the match due to their nominally better squad and home advantage, a look at the last qualifying matches between the two teams last year raises doubts. While the Colombians are now winless in five matches, Peru have picked up six points from their last two competitive matches to catch up.
In addition to the table situation, in which Colombia is currently only one place ahead of Peru due to the better goal difference and thus holds the last direct qualification place for the World Cup in fourth place, the geographical location of both countries, which border each other in the north-west of South America, also brings a lot of explosiveness into play. In the case of Colombia vs. Peru, however, all predictions point clearly in the direction of the hosts. A win for the underdogs from Peru would be a real surprise.
Colombia – Statistics & current form
Last year was divided into two phases for the Colombians. The first five games in the World Cup qualifiers were all survived undefeated. Two victories and three draws were the relatively decent results. After the win against Chile in September, the second phase was ushered in and the next five matches and thus the last five competitive matches were played without a win of their own.
Stable defence, disastrous offence
Just by looking at these five games from October to November, it’s pretty easy to guess what Colombia will need to work on in the future. Not a single goal was scored in any of these matches. What didn’t work up front was almost made up for at the back. Thus, four of the five games ended goalless. Only Brazil was beaten 1:0. In the Colombia vs. Peru match, betting odds on a game with few goals should be considered. Even though they won the first test match of the new year against Honduras 2-1, coach Reinaldo Rueda continues to rely on a stable basic structure to primarily prevent goals.
Don’t let Peru slip by under any circumstances
With only four games left in qualifying and a slender lead over Peru, coach Rueda will be hoping for a win, but the main priority is not to lose the head-to-head clash against Peru and be overtaken.
Stars fall victim to the style of play
Despite some of the well-known names in world football that the team from Colombia brings with them, the search for a real beacon of hope is in vain. In view of the mediocre style of play, it is difficult for individualists such as Luis Muriel of Atalanta Bergamo, who is out for the upcoming match for medical reasons, or Luis Diaz of FC Porto, who was recently brought into contact with Liverpool FC, among others, to make an impact. The bookmakers agree with this recent performance of the Colombians and predict tips in the direction of sub-par goals in the clash between Colombia and Peru.
Predicted Colombia line-up:
Ospina – Cuadrado, Mina, Sanchez, Mojica – Barrios, Uribe, Diaz, James – Borre, Falcao
Last matches played by Colombia:
Friendly match
01/16 2022 – Colombia 2 – 1 Honduras
World Cup – Qualifier CONMEBOL
11/17 2021 – Colombia 0 – 0 Paraguay
11/12 2021 – Brazil 1 – 0 Colombia
10/14 2021 – Colombia 0 – 0 Ecuador
10/10 2021 – Colombia 0 – 0 Brazil
Peru – Statistics & current form
Nominally, the visitors from Peru go into the match as clear underdogs. Nevertheless, they have so far been able to provide unforeseen exclamation marks through constant inconsistency. The team of long-time coach Ricardo Gareca, who has been on the sidelines since 2015, is currently in a strong fifth place in the table, which would qualify them for the play-off round. This leaves heavyweights like Chile and Uruguay behind them at this stage. Still, this intermediate position should not come as much of a surprise, given that Gareca’s side already achieved the feat in 2018 by qualifying for the World Cup in Russia. In total, the two-time Copa America winners stand at five World Cup appearances.
Direct duels as groundbreaking
One advantage the Peruvians have on their side for the last four matches in qualifying is the fact that they do not have to play both Brazil and Argentina. On the other hand, there are duels against direct rivals. In each of these four games, everything will be at stake for Peru. If they want to keep their dream of the 2022 World Cup alive, they should get as many points as possible. In Colombia vs. Peru, the predictions are clearly in favour of Colombia. The first leg, which Peru lost 3-0 at home, could possibly be another factor in the clear underdog role.
The shoe is on the other foot
Similar to Colombia, the Peruvians’ main concern is to strengthen their own offensive. With 15 goals in 14 qualifying matches, only three teams in the entire group have worse records when it comes to scoring. Those who expect Peru to have a strong defence in view of their good fifth place in the table are wrong. A total of 20 goals conceded speaks a different language.
Few draws, no particular home or away strength
The 17 points that Peru have already collected are the result of the fact that the Gareca protégés are looking in vain for many draws. They have only managed two draws in 14 games. On the other hand, they have already won five and lost seven. So if a match involving Peru is on the agenda, a draw should not necessarily be assumed. Nor can there be any talk of a glaring home or away weakness. Peru should not be completely underestimated due to their clear improvement in performance last year compared to 2020. Nevertheless, all the signs are there for a tip in favour of the home team in the Colombia vs Peru match.
Predicted line-up of Peru:
Gallese – Abram, Callens, Santamaria, Zambrano – Aquino, Yotun, Cueva, Pena – Valera, Farfan
Last matches played by Peru:
Friendly match
01/21 2022 – Peru 3 – 0 Jamaica
01/16 2022 – Peru 1 – 1 Panama
World Cup – CONMEBOL Qualifiers
11/16 2021 – Venezuela 1 – 2 Peru
11/12 2021 – Peru 3 – 0 Bolivia
10/15 2021 – Argentina 1 – 0 Peru
Colombia – Peru Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
The direct comparison speaks a clear language in the last ten duels. Colombia have won six of those ten encounters. Three other matches ended in draws and Peru won only once.
Colombia – Peru Tip
The clear favourites from Colombia are looking to take the next big step towards Qatar 2022 at home. With a win over their direct rivals from Peru, they could build up a small cushion of three points. On the other hand, coach Rueda’s team is considered minimalist. A duel at eye level with few goal-scoring scenes should not come as too much of a surprise.
Even though Peru are basically the underdogs in the South American group, the men around top scorer Christian Cueva have built up a good starting position with five wins from ten matches in the past year. The last two victories against Bolivia and Venezuela in particular have put Peru in a promising position.
Even though the form curve actually speaks more in favour of the visitors from Peru, we see Colombia as having the advantage due to their home advantage and individual class. Nevertheless, we refrain from playing the odds on a home win for Colombia vs. Peru for now. We see the best chance of a game with few goals and therefore put seven units on a game with under 2.5 goals. You can also bet on Colombia vs. Peru not to score for both teams
