Whose knot will burst first?
With 16 points from their first 13 group games in the CONMEBOL 2022 World Cup Qualifiers, Colombia are currently in fifth place, which would still put them into the intercontinental play-offs. However, the Cafeteros have only won one of their last eight qualifiers and have drawn six times in that period.
On paper alone, the odds are clearly in favour of the home side ahead of the match between Colombia and Paraguay. Given that the Cafeteros have failed to score in their last four qualifying matches, it could be a very tight affair against the Paraguayan side.
The Guaraníes have also failed to score in their last four qualifiers, picking up just one win from their last 11 matches in World Cup qualifying. The first leg against the Colombian side also ended in a draw, which is why we see the greater value in betting on Colombia against Paraguay to score a maximum of two goals between two teams that have not been very convincing in recent times, especially on the offensive.
Colombia – Statistics & current form
The Colombian national football team has participated in a total of six World Cups so far. Although the Cafeteros missed three finals in a row between 2002 and 2010, they have participated in a total of five of the last eight tournaments.
It goes without saying that coach Reinaldo Rueda’s team, which finished third in this year’s Copa America and narrowly missed out on the overall winners Argentina in a penalty shootout in the semi-finals, will also be back in Qatar for the 2022 World Cup.
Seven of the 13 qualifying matches have already ended in a draw
The problem, however, is that the Colombians have not only forgotten how to win recently, but also how to score goals.
The Cafeteros have only won one of their last eight games in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying – a 3-1 home victory over Chile on 10 September 2021.
Since that very match, the Colombian side have gone four consecutive matches without scoring a goal of their own, picking up a total of three points as they conceded just one goal in all four games combined. This means that seven of the 13 qualifying matches played by Rueda’s team have ended in a draw.
Makeable remaining programme for Colombia
In fifth place, Colombia still hold all the aces, especially as they face teams from the bottom half of the table on four of the remaining five matchdays and only a heavyweight awaits them away in Argentina, who are very likely to have already qualified by the time of the match.
Accordingly, it is important that nothing goes wrong at home against the Paraguayan side and that they finally get another win. The Cafeteros are favourites for their home game. Bwin, the bookmaker tested by Wettbasis, offers odds of 1.58 for bet 1 on Colombia against Paraguay.
Predicted line-up of Colombia:
Opsina – Mojica – Tesillo – Sánchez – Munoz – Moreno – Barrios – Lerma – Díaz – Cuadrado – Zapata
Last matches played by Colombia:
World Cup – CONMEBOL Qualifiers
11/12 2021 – Brazil 1 – 0 Colombia
10/14 2021 – Colombia 0 – 0 Ecuador
10/10 2021 – Colombia 0 – 0 Brazil
10/08 2021 – Uruguay 0 – 0 Colombia
09/10 2021 – Colombia 3 – 1 Chile
Paraguay – Statistics & current form
Paraguay have participated in eight World Cup finals to date. The Guaraníes had their heyday between 1998 and 2010, when they qualified for the World Cup four times in a row and even reached the quarter-finals at their last appearance in South Africa in 2010.
Possibly the best Paraguayan national team of all time was narrowly beaten 1-0 by the eventual world champions Spain before “La Albirroja” disappeared into oblivion. Most recently, the two-time South American champions failed to qualify early for the World Cup twice in a row.
Only the games against Venezuela were won
Even now, Paraguay are four points off fifth place with five matchdays to go in the CONMEBOL qualifying round. A gap that could now be narrowed with an away win at the Cafeteros. To do so, however, the Guaraníes must finally win again. They have only won two of their 13 games so far.
In the last eleven qualifying games alone, they have only won one: A narrow 2-1 home victory over bottom-placed Venezuela, who had already been beaten 1-0 away from home in the first leg. Otherwise, “La Albirroja” did not manage a win against any other nation.
Only nine goals from the 13 qualifying matches
The reason for the Guaraníes’ lack of results is also quickly found: The offense simply stings too rarely. In the last four qualifying matches, Paraguay have also failed to score any goals of their own. In fact, only nine goals were scored in the 13 matches.
Accordingly, there is a lot of value to be found in the betting on Colombia against Paraguay, that there will once again be no goal festival between two teams that are not very goal-threatening. It is also clear, however, that a lack of an away win would mean that Guillermo Barros Schelotto’s side would slowly but surely lose their place in the World Cup.
Paraguay’s likely line-up:
Silva – Martínez – Alonso – Gómez – R. Rojas – Morel – Almirón – M. Rojas – Villasanti – Romero – Sanabria
Last matches played by Paraguay:
World Cup – CONMEBOL Qualifiers
11/12 2021 – Paraguay 0 – 1 Chile
10/14 2021 – Bolivia 4 – 0 Paraguay
10/11 2021 – Chile 2 – 0 Paraguay
10/08 2021 – Paraguay 0 – 0 Argentina
09/10 2021 – Paraguay 2 – 1 Venezuela
Colombia – Paraguay Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 20 – 7 – 18
There have been a total of 45 meetings between the two nations so far and with 20 wins, the Cafeteros lead the head-to-head comparison by a narrow margin. In the first leg and last meeting to date in Asunción, the two teams drew 1-1 on 5 September 2021.
Colombia – Paraguay Tip
For Colombia against Paraguay, the prediction has to take into account that both teams have been waiting for a goal of their own for four qualifying matches now. Although a goalless draw would not really help either of them – which is why it is quite likely that at a certain point they will press for the end of the goal drought – a goal festival would still be surprising.
The Cafeteros are favourites going into the home game, but need to get their attacking knot back in place. We therefore find much more value than in the three-way system in betting that a maximum of two goals will be scored.
