Is Cologne still surfing the wave of success?
Can you still remember Cologne’s last appearance on the European stage? It wasn’t that long ago. Thanks to fifth place in the final standings in 2016/17, the Rhinelanders were allowed to compete in the group stage of the Europa League a year later, but failed to finish third behind Arsenal and Red Star Belgrade. In addition, the end of the 2017/18 season saw a bitter stint in the second division.
Nevertheless, they are hoping for international duties again in the coming season in the cathedral city, at best even in the Champions League. With two match days to go, Baumgart’s team still has a mathematical chance of finishing fourth. They are just three points behind. In order to keep the dreaming alive at least until the season finale on 14 May, it is imperative that a prediction of a home win pays off next Saturday between Cologne and Wolfsburg.
The Effzeh are also relatively heavily favoured before kick-off, which is probably due to the fact that it’s all about the “golden pineapple” for the visitors from Lower Saxony. In the last few weeks, the Wolves have already attracted negative attention time and again due to motivation problems. Especially away from home, there has been little to gain for the VfL recently. The odds of 1.62 on the expected home win are justified ahead of the Cologne vs Wolfsburg clash. The calculated probability of occurrence is 60%.
Cologne – Statistics & current form
1. FC Köln is playing an outstanding season so far. Anyone who considers that the Rhinelanders were still deep in the relegation mess almost exactly a year ago and were only able to secure their place in the league thanks to a clear success in the relegation second leg against Kiel can’t help but be amazed at the current situation.
Coach Baumgart, newly installed in the summer, has formed a team that not only plays entrancing and attractive football, but has also become a real results machine. Only FC Bayern (five) and SC Freiburg (seven) conceded fewer defeats than the Geißböcke (eight) in the current season. The Effzeh also retained the upper hand in a total of 14 Bundesliga matches. The 52 points they have collected after 32 matchdays are their best tally since 1989/90.
Cologne are among the top teams in 2022
When asked in winter whether Modeste and Co. would be able to maintain the level of the first half of the season in the second half of the season, the answer was somewhat cautious. In the 2022 calendar year alone, they have already won eight games in 15 attempts. Behind the absolute top teams from Leipzig, Munich, Dortmund and Leverkusen, the Cathedral City team is in fifth place in the second-round table.
Their recent form is also worthy of praise. The Geißböcke currently have four wins in a row, in which they have always scored at least three goals of their own. A longer series of this kind has not been seen for the Effzeh in the top flight since the beginning of the 90s. Furthermore, only two of the past ten league games have been lost. Even the sometimes not always solid defence, which last played to nil just under two months ago and has always conceded at least one goal in the past six games, does not tarnish the overall picture in any way.
In view of the aforementioned facts and the statistic that an average of 4.5 goals has been scored in the last four Effzeh matches, it may well make sense to combine your bet on a home win between Cologne and Wolfsburg with “Over 1.5 goals” or “Both score” on Saturday. Andersson, Obuz and Ostrak are out injured. Ondrej Duda returns to the squad after his provisional suspension, as does Salih Özcan, who was recently linked with Dortmund.
Predicted line-up of Cologne:
Schwäbe – Schmitz, Kilian, Hübers, Hector – Özcan, Skhiri – Ljubicic, Uth, Kainz – Modeste
Last matches played by Köln:
Bundesliga
30/04/2022 – Augsburg 1 – 4 1. FC Köln
23/04/2022 – 1. FC Köln 3 – 1 Arminia Bielefeld
16/04/2022 – Gladbach 1 – 3 1. FC Köln
09/04/2022 – 1. FC Köln 3 – 2 Mainz 05
02/04/2022 – Union Berlin 1 – 0 1. FC Köln
Wolfsburg – Statistics & current form
Exactly the opposite of Cologne’s example is VfL Wolfsburg’s season. After fourth place in the pre-season and the associated qualification for the Champions League, in which, however, already in the autumn due to the last place in the group, the Wolves had to seriously fear for 2021/22 even the relegation. In the last few weeks, a few games in which the quality and potential flashed were enough to put the relegation battle to one side.
Nevertheless, the team is still far from developing its own identity. Florian Kohfeldt’s record also reads anything but positive in this regard. The ex-Bremer has already been on the sidelines for 26 competitive matches and is averaging a meagre 1.08 points per game. Eight wins are offset by four draws and 14 defeats.
Wolfsburg away from home mostly just a supplier of points
In particular, the away weakness prevented a better result for the Lower Saxons. VfL scored only 15 of their 38 points away from home. Under Kohfeldt, there have only been two away wins in the Bundesliga in twelve attempts. Seven of the past eleven matches in opposing stadiums were lost.
For the first time since autumn/winter 2017/18, the Autostädter are winless in five consecutive away games in the top flight. Under these circumstances, we don’t think it’s a good idea to predict a surprise coup for the former German champions in the Cologne vs Wolfsburg clash.
Wundertüte Wolfsburg not always convincing with attitude
The fact that the previous week’s point win at VfB Stuttgart means that the club’s chances of staying in the relegation zone are also mathematically in the bag and VfL are struggling to generate a little more television revenue through a better final position makes matters even more difficult.
Considering the fact that the team recently lacked the necessary ambition, among other things in the 1:6 in Dortmund, the 0:3 in Augsburg or also in the 0:2 at home against Leverkusen, we would not be sure, however, whether the mentality and motivation are sufficient to survive in the Tollhaus RheinEnergie-Stadion. After all, with the exception of Waldschmidt, Paulo Otavio and William, all the pros are expected to be ready for action.
Predicted line-up of Wolfsburg:
Casteels – R. Baku, Lacroix, Brooks, Roussillon – Arnold – X. Schlager, Gerhardt – Wind, Kruse – L. Nmecha
Last matches played by Wolfsburg:
Bundesliga
30/04/2022 – VfB Stuttgart 1 – 1 VfL Wolfsburg
23/04/2022 – VfL Wolfsburg 5 – 0 Mainz 05
16/04/2022 – Borussia Dortmund 6 – 1 VfL Wolfsburg
09/04/2022 – VfL Wolfsburg 4 – 0 Arminia Bielefeld
03/04/2022 – Augsburg 3 – 0 VfL Wolfsburg
Cologne – Wolfsburg Direct comparison / H2H balance
As if we hadn’t already provided enough arguments in the previous paragraphs to justify the lower odds on the fifth in the table between Cologne and Wolfsburg, the direct comparison also speaks a relatively clear language in favour of the Rhinelanders.
Cologne are now unbeaten in six home games against VfL (three wins, three draws) and have therefore not lost at home to their upcoming opponents for over ten years. Nevertheless, it must be taken into account that the Lower Saxons have always scored in the last six encounters. In five of the last six encounters, therefore, the “both sides score” would have gone through. This was also the case in the first leg, which the Effzeh won 3:2 at the Volkswagen Arena.
Cologne – Wolfsburg Tip
1. FC Köln is well on the way to achieving something big. Pressure? No chance! Even in the event of a defeat next Saturday, the dream of returning to the European stage next season is alive and well.
Apart from that, we think it’s pretty unlikely anyway that a bet on the away win in the Bundesliga match between Cologne and Wolfsburg will pay off. The Wolves have won just one of their last eleven away games, are unbeaten in five matches away from home and, what’s more, haven’t won at the RheinEnergie-Stadion since 2011.
With the Cathedral City side also in exhilarating form, having won four in a row, always scoring at least three goals and simply riding a wave of success at the moment, our first and preferred approach is to bet on a home win for Baumgart’s side. In order to push the relatively low prices a bit further, it is a good idea to combine the aforementioned three-goal win for the Geißböcke with the over 1.5 or goals on both sides.
