Will the Billy Goats keep an eye on the safety of the table?
While SV Werder Bremen, in tenth place in the table, have no relegation worries despite their recent 2-1 defeat at home to 1. FC Heidenheim, 1. FC Köln have also managed to improve their plight somewhat of late. The Billy Goats have remained unbeaten in three consecutive league games (one win, two draws), extending their lead over a direct relegation spot to four points, but are still five points off the drop zone in 16th place. However, if Cologne win at home against Werder Bremen, they would suddenly be very close again
The fact that the team from the Weser now have a kind of favorite opponent coming to the Rheinenergiestadion plays into the Effzeh’s hands. The Geißböcke are unbeaten against SVW in eleven consecutive Bundesliga home games (five wins, six draws). Nevertheless, the fact that the team from the cathedral city still has the weakest offense in the Bundesliga should not be ignored in the prediction for Cologne against Werder Bremen
SV Werder Bremen, on the other hand, have won their last two Bundesliga away games in a row and have not conceded a goal on either occasion. For the first time since the 1981/82 season (back then under Otto Rehhagel), Werder could now win three consecutive away games in the top flight of German soccer. The Green-Whites are certainly capable of doing so, which makes it extremely difficult to make use of the three-way system in this Friday evening game.
Instead, betting on a maximum of one team to score is an excellent option, which also takes into account the fact that Bremen, with eleven goals from ten Bundesliga away games, are not an unqualified goal factory either
Cologne – statistics & current form
After two carefree years in which they were even allowed to look upwards in the course of their participation in the Conference League, 1. FC Köln are currently back in the middle of the relegation battle. Steffen Baumgart had to leave in the winter because things went very unevenly in the first half of the season.
Under his successor Timo Schultz, it initially looked as if the change of coach would not have any effect. The 46-year-old coach managed to secure just two points out of a possible nine. But then, for the first time in the 2023/24 season, the Effzeh went unbeaten in three consecutive league games (one win, two draws).
Cologne are now showing an upward trend
By picking up five points out of a possible nine, the cathedral city side consolidated their place in the relegation places and secured a four-point lead over the first relegation spot. However, there is a five-point gap between the team and the relegation zone, which must be closed in the near future if the team is to avoid relegation.
One ray of hope is the fact that only one of the five league games under Timo Schultz has been lost. This means that the odds for Cologne v Werder Bremen are also slightly in favor of the Billy Goats, who are unbeaten in eleven Bundesliga home games against SVW (five wins, six draws)
Cologne are doing far too little offensively in particular
Much more problematic, however, is the fact that the Effzeh continue to struggle terribly to create chances and score goals under Timo Schultz. Only bottom club Darmstadt 98 created even fewer big chances in 2023/24 (27) than FC Köln (33), who in turn only converted 27 per cent of their big chances.
The mere 15 goals that were scored in this way even correspond to the weakest figure in the league. The fact that central defender Jeff Chabot will now also have to serve a yellow card in the home game against Werder Bremen is unlikely to help the defensive stability of the cathedral city team.
Cologne’s probable line-up:
Werder Bremen – Statistics & current form
SV Werder Bremen have recently enjoyed a really strong phase, during which the team from the Weser have remained unbeaten in seven consecutive Bundesliga games (four wins, three draws).
As a result, Ole Werner’s side have rid themselves of the worst of their relegation worries for the second year of their Bundesliga affiliation and have even climbed into the top half of the table. However, the 2:1 home defeat against newly promoted Heidenheim saw the Green-Whites slip back down to tenth place
Werder Bremen are still looking upwards
With a ten-point lead over the relegation places, the situation is still extremely comfortable. If the bet on an away win for the North Germans against Werder Bremen pans out, the cushion to 16th place would even increase to 13 points regardless of all other results.
There is certainly still a lot of work to be done before those responsible can really plan for another year in the top flight of German soccer. However, it is clear that the starting position would be extremely positive if the Effzeh were to record another away win in Müngersdorf after eleven winless Bundesliga games
Werder Bremen have also impressed away from home recently
SVW did not win their first eight Bundesliga away games of the 2023/24 season (three draws, five defeats). However, the unexpected 1:0 win at Bayern turned things around away from home. The Weser eleven recently followed this up with another 1:0 away win in Mainz.
For the first time since 1981/82 (back then under Otto Rehhagel), the Whites could now theoretically win three Bundesliga away games in a row without conceding a goal. With the best conversion rate in the Bundesliga (55 percent), it could well be possible for Werder to play for victory in Cologne.
Predicted Werder Bremen line-up:
Cologne – Werder Bremen head-to-head comparison / H2H result
Head to head: 39 – 31 – 39
A total of 109 competitive matches have been played between the two teams and with 31 draws and 39 wins on both sides, the head-to-head comparison is remarkably balanced. Although Bremen won the first leg 2-1, 1. FC Köln have not scored more points in Bundesliga home games against any other Bundesliga club than against SVW (101), against whom the Billy Goats are currently unbeaten in eleven Bundesliga games at home (five wins, six draws).
Cologne – Werder Bremen betting tip
The betting odds for Cologne v Werder Bremen are slightly in favor of the cathedral city team, who have only won two of their ten Bundesliga home games in the 2023/24 season (three draws, five defeats). With just 15 goals from 21 league games, the Effzeh also have the weakest attack in the Bundesliga, while the team from the Weser have recently won two Bundesliga away games in a row with 1-0 victories.
On the other hand, SVW have “only” scored eleven goals in ten away Bundesliga matches this season. Accordingly, there is a lot of value in the prediction that Cologne will score very few goals against Werder Bremen at the Rheinenergiestadion on Friday evening. We have opted for the bet that a maximum of one team will score.
Bet-at-home are offering odds of 2.18 for a maximum of one side to score, which we are backing with three out of ten units.
