Tired Eurofighters among themselves
It still takes some getting used to when we talk about 1. FC Köln and Union Berlin as two teams representing the black-red-gold colours in European competition. While the Rhinelanders picked up a respectable point in Nice on Thursday evening to kick off the Conference League group stage, the Eisernen were somewhat surprisingly beaten 1-0 at home by Belgian runners-up Royale Union St. Gilloise in the Europa League.
On Sunday, both cult clubs return to Bundesliga action in a direct duel. According to the odds, Cologne will have the advantage against Union Berlin, which is primarily due to the home bonus. However, because the bottom line is that two teams are facing each other who are still unbeaten after five matchdays, it may even make more sense to forego betting on the three-way market and, for example, to consider the question of the number of goals.
Apart from that, a lot will depend on which personnel the two coaches will send onto the pitch. Considering that the two teams with the most runs in the Bundesliga so far will meet and that both Steffen Baumgart and Urs Fischer demand an enormous amount of meticulousness from their players, rotation and load-controlling changes in the starting eleven are very likely.
Cologne – statistics & current form
For only the second time in the last 30 years, 1. FC Köln are still unbeaten after five matchdays in the Bundesliga. Last time, when a flawless start to the season was achieved in terms of potential defeats, the “Effzeh” finished fifth in the final standings and qualified for the Europa League (2016/17). Certainly, those responsible for the “Geißböcke” would not object if this ranking were to be repeated in the coming summer.
Baumgart’s team experienced what it means to breathe international air on Thursday evening in the south of France. After the game in Nice had to start late due to riots between the two fan camps, the Rhinelanders first took a 1:0 lead, but as the game progressed they not only had to accept the 1-1 equaliser, but also had Marvin Schwäbe to thank on several occasions for his brilliant saves to keep them in the lead.
Do Cologne games remain spectacular?
Compared to the Europa League game, there will definitely be one important change this coming Sunday. Coach Baumgart, who was not allowed to be on the sidelines due to a suspension after his sending-off in the play-offs against Fehervar on Thursday, will again be able to support his team from the sidelines in the Bundesliga. That seems bitterly necessary, because despite the good start to the season, Jonas Hector and Co. now have to face a real fearful opponent.
Since a 2-1 away win in April 2014, the Cathedral City side have not won a single competitive match against the Eisernen. The “Effzeh” have not kept the upper hand in eight consecutive competitive matches. Five of the six games at first division level were even lost from the perspective of the Conference League participants. In view of this Köpenick curse, one should be cautious about betting on a home win between Cologne and Union Berlin.
More interesting, however, is a potential bet that both teams will score. This is supported by the fact that Cologne are only one of six teams to have scored a double-digit number of goals so far. In four out of five matches, the bet on “both teams to score” would have gone through. On average, more than three goals were scored per match. Regardless of which players will be on the pitch on Sunday afternoon, coach Baumgart is pursuing an offensive approach and demands courage to take risks from his charges. Andersson, Chabot, Limnios, Uth, Olesen and Schmitz are all out through injury.
Predicted line-up of Cologne:
Schwäbe – Ki. Schindler, Kilian, Hübers, Pedersen – Martel, Skhiri – Maina, Ljubicic, Kainz – S. Tigges
Last matches played by Köln:
Europa Conference League Grp. D
09/09/2022 – Nice 1 – 1 1 FC Cologne
Bundesliga
03/09/2022 – VfL Wolfsburg 2 – 4 1. FC Köln
28/08/2022 – 1. FC Köln 0 – 0 VfB Stuttgart
Europa Conference League Qualification
25/08/2022 – Fehervar FC 0 – 3 1. FC Köln
Bundesliga
21/08/2022 – Eintracht Frankfurt 1 – 1 1. FC Köln
Union Berlin – Statistics & current form
The feeling of defeat had virtually displaced Union Berlin. On Thursday evening, however, it was that time again on the international stage. Despite a clear chance advantage, the Eisernen lost to Belgian underdog Royale Union St. Gilloise with 0:1 and thus made a false start in the EL group stage. From the capital club’s point of view, it is to be hoped that this was only a slip-up and that the Köpenickers will continue in the Bundesliga where they left off last time.
Thanks to the remarkable 1-1 draw against FC Bayern the previous week, coach Urs Fischer’s team is now unbeaten in twelve league games in a row (nine wins, three draws). Incidentally, this impressive run began in April 2022 with a narrow win against 1. FC Köln.
Union enraptures the Bundesliga
Elf points after five matchdays are currently not only enough for fourth place in the intermediate rankings, but also correspond to the best yield in the club’s history. At this point in the season, the Eisernen had a maximum of six points to their name in the top flight. The twelve goals scored and only four conceded are also new bests for the high-flyers of recent years.
Given these outstanding numbers and statistics, we see the more promising value between Cologne and Union Berlin in the odds on the double chance X2. It is therefore well worth considering betting on a point win for Fischer’s team and combining this with the over 1.5, as both teams have also scored in four of the previous five Bundesliga matches involving Union. Three times, moreover, the 2.5 goal mark would have been broken.
In our eyes, nothing stands in the way of another over-match, especially as both teams already have the next important game in the UEFA Europa League ahead of them on Thursday. The Berliners have to go to Braga and at best score points there if the European adventure is not to end after the group stage. Changes in personnel are therefore to be expected in order to control the load. With the exception of Baumgartl, all players are available. Only Jordan Siebatcheu, who is slightly injured, will be available at short notice.
Predicted line-up of Union Berlin:
Rönnow – Doekhi, Knoche, Diogo Leite – Trimmel, R. Khedira, Ryerson – Haraguchi, Haberer – Becker, Michel
Last matches played by Union Berlin:
Europa League Grp. D
08/09/2022 – Union Berlin 0 – 1 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
Bundesliga
03/09/2022 – Union Berlin 1 – 1 Bayern Munich
27/08/2022 – Schalke 04 1 – 6 Union Berlin
20/08/2022 – Union Berlin 2 – 1 RB Leipzig
14/08/2022 – Mainz 05 0 – 0 Union Berlin
Cologne – Union Berlin Direct comparison / H2H balance
The clubs have faced each other in six matches in Germany’s top division to date. Cologne is still waiting for its first win. Worse still, the Rhinelanders have lost five of the six matches mentioned above. The Geißböcke have a worse points average against no other first division club (0.17). Union, on the other hand, have not celebrated more victories against any other club in the Bundesliga. Based on the head-to-head record, the prediction between Cologne and Union Berlin should therefore go more in the direction of the capital city side.
Cologne – Union Berlin Tip
We can look forward to two international representatives on Sunday afternoon as part of the sixth matchday in the Bundesliga. Cologne welcome Union Berlin. The betting odds on the three-way market are quite close to each other, from which it can be concluded that there is no clear favourite. Both teams are still unbeaten. Perhaps the X is therefore even the best bet.
However, we distance ourselves from betting on the outcome of the match and instead focus on the goal market. Both the Cathedral City side and the Köpenick side have been quite convincing offensively so far. In four of the five matches between these teams, both teams have scored, so we expect an over-goal game.
The double burden of the European Cup also speaks in favour of this, as the next games are already scheduled for next Thursday. We therefore expect personnel changes, which will be accompanied by a lack of automatisms and possibly also a somewhat lower defensive quality. Our Cologne vs. Union Berlin tip therefore aims for at least three goals in the course of the match.
