Will the Irons seal Cologne’s fate?

If you ask the Opta Supercomputer about the Bundesliga teams’ chances of staying in the league, things are not looking good for FC Köln in particular. The calculated chance of staying in the league is just 0.4 percent. Only 3.4 percent is the probability of making it into the relegation play-offs. If the bet on a home win for the Billy Goats against Union Berlin doesn’t work out, relegation would be sealed immediately

Things are looking a little more positive for the Eisern, where there has been another change of manager after just 20 league games under Nenad Bjelica. Marco Grote is now set to coach the capital club to a place in the league. Because the Köpenickers still have everything in their own hands, the chances of staying in the league are estimated at 71.6 percent. However, that also assumes to a certain extent that Cologne’s prediction of a point win for the visitors against Union Berlin comes true

In any case, it is clear that this match does not promise to be too action-packed. After all, the two worst attacking lines in the Bundesliga by far clash here. No team has failed to score as often as Union Berlin (17 times in 32 league games), while only 1. FC Köln have scored fewer goals in total (24) than the Irons (29). But: Both teams are under pressure, which is why this basement duel could well become hectic as the game progresses.

That’s why the under bet is only our second choice. We find even more value in the bet that nothing will be decided after the first half, which is why we consider the X at the break to be very promising. Overall, the draw would also suit this match, which could be played at odds of 3.40 at ODDSET by bettors willing to take risks. New customers currently also receive a 100% bonus up to €100 at this bookie

Cologne – Statistics & current form

1. FC Köln start the 33rd matchday of the Bundesliga with a five-point deficit on the relegation places. Never before since the introduction of the three-point rule has such a large deficit been made up so late in a season. Practically everything now points to the Billy Goats’ seventh Bundesliga relegation in the club’s history.

And going down to the second tier would be an absolute disaster. The transfer ban against the Effzeh was recently confirmed once again, meaning that no new players may be signed in the summer. The gaps created by the departure of players whose contracts automatically expire in the event of relegation could therefore only be filled by the return of loan players and players from the second team and youth teams

Cologne is the second weakest home team in the league

If the tip on Cologne’s home win against Union Berlin doesn’t work out, that would definitely be it. However, there really isn’t much to suggest that this will be the case, as they recently failed to beat bottom club Darmstadt 98 at home (0:2).

In fact, only the Lilies, who have already been relegated for the first time, have scored worse at home in the 2023/24 season (six) than the Billy Goats (13), who are not going into this potentially landmark game with too much momentum. Cologne have won just one of their last twelve Bundesliga games (six draws, five defeats)

Cologne lacks offensive punch

Only four wins from the 32 league games are on record, which in the end is simply far too few to stay in the top flight. The main problem is definitely the lack of goalscorers up front. With just 24 goals, the Effzeh have by far the most prolific offense in the top flight of German soccer.

A small glimmer of hope: 13 of these 24 goals were scored from set-pieces. The figure of 54 percent is the highest in the league. And now of all times, 1. FC Union Berlin, a Bundesliga team that is very susceptible to resting balls, is coming to the Rheinenergiestadion. Only Augsburg have conceded more goals from set pieces (21) than the Irons (18).

Predicted Cologne line-up:

Union Berlin – Statistics & current form

Last season, 1. FC Union Berlin experienced a meteoric rise as the club from Köpenick reached the Champions League in the course of an absolutely exceptional season. One year later, however, the capital city club is in free fall. After legend Urs Fischer was forced to leave, Nenad Bjelica was also unable to lead the Eisern into calmer waters.

After 20 Bundesliga games with an average of 1.15 points per game, the Croatian was relieved of his duties after six consecutive league games without a win (two draws, four defeats) after matchday 32. Marco Grote is now tasked with ensuring that FCU remain in the top flight

Union Berlin remained too pale, especially away from home

In principle, the odds are slightly in favor of Cologne against Union Berlin. However, the Köpenickers performed anything but well, especially away from home. The Ironmen have picked up just ten points from their 16 Bundesliga away games so far in the 2023/24 season, with only Mainz (nine) beating them.

The capital city side failed to score in eleven of these 16 away matches. Twelve goalless away games in a single Bundesliga season has only been achieved once before in the history of this competition – at SC Paderborn in 2014/15.

Union Berlin still have it in their own hands

In total, Union Berlin have failed to score 17 times in the current season, which is the highest figure in the league. With just 29 goals from 32 league games, the Ironmen also have the second-weakest offense, although curiously, eight of those 29 goals came in the first two matchdays, which saw two 4-1 victories against Mainz and Darmstadt.

And yet an away win at the Geißböcken would possibly be enough to put a spanner in the works of a botched season and start afresh in the summer. The Köpenickers would then at least be certain of relegation. Should Mainz even lose at home to Dortmund, a three-pointer in the cathedral city would even mean direct relegation. That means FCU still have everything completely in their own hands.

Predicted line-up for Union Berlin:

Cologne – Union Berlin head-to-head comparison / H2H result

Head to head: 5 – 3 – 9

The two teams have met a total of 17 times so far and 1. FC Union Berlin clearly lead the direct comparison with nine wins. The duel has recently been in the hands of the Iron, who have not lost a single one of their last eleven competitive matches against 1. FC Köln (eight wins, three draws) and also prevailed 2:0 in the first leg on December 20, 2023.

Cologne – Union Berlin betting tip

The betting odds for Cologne v Union Berlin are slightly in favor of the visitors, who have not lost to the Effzeh in eleven competitive matches (eight wins, three draws). Although the Ironmen are currently the weakest team in the league (just two points from their last six games), they will benefit from their starting position in this basement duel. Even a draw would put direct relegation off the table. An away win would also keep the Köpenickers safely above the bottom line. Accordingly, the pressure is on the Billy Goats, who are already five points off the relegation places

Both teams also find it extremely difficult to score goals, which is why not too much action is to be expected. However, the fact that the Billy Goats in particular will have to play to win sooner or later could certainly bring a little more life into the match. However, our prediction for Cologne v Union Berlin is that it will be a draw at least at the break