Can Schalke surprise all the critics?
FC Schalke will celebrate their long-awaited comeback in the Bundesliga late on Sunday afternoon. After a year of abstinence, the Knappen have corrected their industrial accident and are now back in the top flight. Nevertheless, the cult club from Gelsenkirchen has to bake smaller rolls for the time being.
The fact is, however, that the Beletage of German football and especially the fans are happy that a real traditional club is back. On the very first matchday, there is an anniversary to celebrate for the Königsblauen, as they will play an away match in the Bundesliga for the 900th time in total. The Ruhr team has now failed to win 28 consecutive away games in the country’s top division. No wonder, then, that odds of just 1.75 are offered on a home win for the Rhinelanders between Cologne and Schalke.
The opening game also has immense significance for the cathedral cities, especially, of course, after the disgraceful cup exit the previous week at second-division side Regensburg. Whether that was a slip-up or the Geißböcke also overslept the start in league play will be seen on Sunday.
Despite the implied role of favourites in the Cologne vs. Schalke clash, a prediction on the host is subject to a certain risk in our eyes. By the way, the match will be broadcast live on DAZN.
Cologne – Statistics & current form
Without a doubt, 1. FC Köln was one of the most positive surprises in the Bundesliga last season. Hardly anyone would have expected the Rhinelanders to finish in the top third of the table, but in the end they managed a respectable seventh place.
However, the final spurt was somewhat suboptimal, because if the “Effzeh” had earned at least four points from the final two matches against Wolfsburg and Stuttgart, they would now be safely in the group stage of the Europa League. However, because both matches were lost, the Cathedral City side will have to fight their way through the play-offs for the third-tier Conference League. However, the club from the carnival stronghold will not have a triple burden, because in the DFB Cup the Cologne team already lost to the second division team in Regensburg the previous week.
Although the bitter defeat on penalties at this early stage is not necessarily an indication that the Geißböcken are facing a difficult season, Steffen Baumgart and his coaching team still have a mammoth task ahead of them. Expectations have risen, in all likelihood the Cologne team will have to play not one but two competitive games a week, and the ongoing discussions about a possible transfer of offensive life insurance Anthony Modeste make the task even more difficult.
Will Cologne continue last year’s performance at home?
Hope for a positive result at the start of the season, however, is the solid home record from last year. The Rhinelanders scored 31 of their 52 points in front of their own fans. In 17 attempts, there were nine victories and only four defeats. Apart from that, Baumgart’s team performed well, especially against the promoted teams. Two wins and two draws were achieved against Fürth and Bochum. The two victories were in front of a home crowd.
Despite the statistics listed and the implied role of favourites for last year’s seventh-placed team by the bookmakers tested, we see no value in betting on a home win between Cologne and Schalke in view of the low odds. We estimate the probability of a Cologne success at under 56% and therefore refrain from betting in the direction of Jonas Hector and Co.
With Sargis Adamyan, there will probably only be one newcomer in the starting eleven. In the centre of defence, Chabot and Kilian will fight for the place next to Hübers. For Mark Uth, meanwhile, it is a special game against his former club, where he fell out of favour after relegation and was chased by “fans” around the Arena Ring in Gelsenkirchen. The former international should not lack motivation, especially as Uth really blossomed again at the “Effzeh” with 13 scorer points in one season. By way of comparison: in 48 Bundesliga games in the royal blue jersey, the attacking player was directly involved in just seven goals.
Predicted Cologne line-up:
Schwäbe – Schmitz, Hübers, Chabot, Hector – Skhiri – Ljubicic, Uth, Kainz – Modeste, Adamyan
Last matches played by Köln:
DFB Pokal
30/07/2022 – Jahn Regensburg (4)2 – 2(3) 1. FC Köln
Friendly club matches
22/07/2022 – 1. FC Köln 5 – 0 Nijmegen
17/07/2022 – 1. FC Köln 2 – 0 Kickers Offenbach
16/07/2022 – 1. FC Köln 1 – 2 AC Milan
09/07/2022 – 1. FC Köln 1 – 1 Grasshopper Club
Schalke – Statistics & current form
After one year, FC Schalke 04 is back in the Bundesliga. However, real football greats are already predicting another difficult season for the former Champions League participants. The ex-world footballer Lothar Matthäus has even made his predictions and once again believes in a relegation battle involving the Knappen.
Despite all the anticipation, even the fans are beginning to doubt whether their favourite team can immediately look forward to another carefree season in the top flight. This understandable scepticism is primarily based on the less successful preparation so far and the appointment of coach Frank Kramer, which only a few people in the Königsblau environment have understood. Already in Bielefeld, the football coach did not really get the offensive going. The rather quiet character traits are also viewed with suspicion in the Ruhr area.
Are the Knappen being eyed too critically?
Whoever reads these first two paragraphs might think that we have already said goodbye to a prediction on the guest before the last match of the first Bundesliga matchday between Cologne and Schalke. In fact, however, the aforementioned aspects are mainly responsible for our focus on the double chance X2. The corresponding quotes on a point win for the Gelsenkircheners are far too low in our eyes, so that value is to be recognised.
In addition, the Schalke team showed good early form in the DFB Pokal a week ago and didn’t let anything go in their 5:0 away win at Bremer SV. The many interesting new arrivals also give cause for optimism, making it difficult for the opposing analyst to filter out a statement about the game idea with and against the ball. S04 is a little surprise packet with a lot of potential. It is quite possible that this will be shown for the first time on Sunday and that the promoted team will unexpectedly take at least one point from the cathedral city.
Coach Frank Kramer will probably be able to draw completely from the full squad. Although top scorer and promotion guarantee Simon Terodde had to miss the cup due to a persistent abdominal muscle injury, the attacker is expected back at the weekend with a built-in goal guarantee. The seven newcomers in the starting line-up underline the personnel upheaval in the summer, which has, however, increased the quality in all parts of the team as well as the squad width.
Predicted line-up of Schalke:
Schwolow – Brunner, Yoshida, M. Kaminski, Ouwejan – Krauß, Kral – Zalazar, T. Mohr – Terodde, Polter
Last matches played by Schalke:
DFB Pokal
31/07/2022 – Bremer SV 0 – 5 Schalke 04
Friendly club matches
23/07/2022 – Twente Enschede 3 – 1 Schalke 04
17/07/2022 – Schalke 04 1 – 1 Augsburg
13/07/2022 – Salernitana 0 – 0 Schalke 04
09/07/2022 – Schalke 04 1 – 3 Meppen
Cologne – Schalke Direct comparison / H2H balance
This is the 89th time Cologne have met Schalke in the top flight. The Rhinelanders have had the upper hand 39 times, only in 27 cases did the Ruhr team have the longer breath. 22 draws round off the overall balance.
The “Effzeh” won more first league games against no other club than against S04. Only against VfL Bochum do the Cathedral City side have a higher average of points and a better win rate than against Königsblau. Schalke have not won against Cologne in eight Bundesliga games (four draws, four defeats). In 2020/21, the Geißböcke won the first and second legs by a narrow 2-1 and 1-0 scoreline respectively. Will there now be a belated revenge?
Cologne – Schalke Tip
Two traditional clubs with an appealing fan culture face each other at the RheinEnergie-Stadion at the end of the first matchday in the Bundesliga. According to the betting odds, Cologne are favourites against Schalke. This assessment is certainly understandable, as the seventh-placed team from the previous season is facing a promoted team. However, we are not entirely happy with the very one-sided odds distribution.
In our eyes, the Knappen, who are making a fresh start under Frank Kramer with many new arrivals, are currently being given too bad a press coverage. The anticipation at the Knappen is just as huge as the fan support. The performance in the cup showed good first signs and the fact that the opposing teams don’t really know what to expect from the Gelsenkirchen team could play into the hands of the supposed underdogs.
A further complicating matters from the home side’s point of view is the fact that there is already a certain amount of pressure on Baumgart’s eleven after their elimination in the cup. Some experts also believe that the Rhinelanders have not been able to carry the level of the previous season into this season. Although many statistics point in the direction of the home team, we try it between Cologne and Schalke with the tip on the double chance X2.
