Leipzig don’t want to slip up in the race for the CL places
With just three months to go until the end of the season, RB Leipzig fans are not the only ones wondering whether Xavi Simons’ great skills will also be on show in the Bundesliga in 2024/25. The fact is that the young Dutchman is currently only on loan and has recommended himself for a return to Paris St. Germain thanks to his good performances in Germany.
However, as Simons is said to feel very much at home in Leipzig, there is hope that the partnership could possibly be extended beyond the summer. However, the first prerequisite for any talks about extending the working paper with the Xavi side is a fixed ticket for the upcoming Champions League season
To be on the safe side, the Central City side must finish in the top four. At the moment, however, they are only in fifth place, although they are just one point behind BVB. If the tip for an away win between Cologne and RB Leipzig on Friday evening at the start of the 26th matchday in the Bundesliga proves correct, coach Marco Rose’s team would initially move back ahead of the Black & Yellows. From the Saxons’ perspective, any other result would be a setback in the race for the all-important ticket to the reformed top flight.
With a look at the standings, the fronts at the RheinEnergie-Stadion seem to be quickly settled. Fear of relegation meets CL ambitions. Nevertheless, it is far from a foregone conclusion that Cologne will win against RB Leipzig. The Rhinelanders have been absolutely competitive since the change of manager and are hoping to pick up points at home against the team that thrashed them 6-0 in the first half of the season.
The bookmakers are a little more skeptical in this respect and are offering significantly lower odds for an away win for Xavi Simons and Co. Anyone who would like to see the youngster with the striking head of hair in the Oranje jersey has the opportunity to win tickets for the international match between Germany and the Netherlands at Interwetten.
Cologne – Statistics & current form
It was one of the findings of the 25th matchday in the Bundesliga: 1. FC Köln can attack! In the Rhineland derby at Borussia Mönchengladbach, the cathedral city club scored three or more goals of their own for only the second time this season. It was also just the third league game this season in which the traditional club from the carnival stronghold scored at least twice. However, it didn’t really help, because despite a much improved attacking performance, the 3-3 draw ultimately resulted in just one point, which is of little help in the current situation.
In third-last place in the table, they are just two points clear of the first direct relegation spot. Meanwhile, they are already seven points off the drop zone. The situation in the basement of the Bundesliga table therefore remains precarious, despite the Effzeh showing many good signs following the change of coach from Steffen Baumgart to Timo Schultz. However, they have not yet been able to turn these into successes. None of the last five matches have been victorious. Seven points collected from eight second-round matches so far are simply not enough to make a decisive leap up the table
Can Cologne compensate for the loss of Hübers?
In particular at home, things have not gone according to plan for the Billy Goats of late. Three of the five BL home games under Timo Schultz were lost. The Rhinelanders, who continue to have the weakest offense in the top flight with a total of 19 goals scored, also failed to score in three of five matches. We are therefore looking in vain for powerful arguments aimed at predicting a surprise coup for the relegation candidates in the unequal duel between Cologne and RB Leipzig on Friday evening.
A further complication is that coach Schultz will be without one of his most important defensive players. Timo Hübers, who has played the most minutes as an outfield player to date and has also delivered the most passes to the man, is suspended through yellow card. Luca Kilian or Dominique Heintz will take his place in central defense alongside Jeff Chabot. Thielmann, Waldschmidt and Uth will also be missing. There are question marks over Ljubicic and Maina, who reported sick during the week.
It will be all the more important that Frankfurt loanee Faride Alidou picks up where he left off with his first BL brace against the Foals the previous week
Predicted Cologne line-up:
RB Leipzig – Statistics & current form
So far, the 2024 soccer year has not gone according to plan for RB Leipzig. They suffered four defeats in the first nine matchdays after the winter break. In addition, despite two spirited and good performances, the team from the central city were knocked out of the Champions League round of 16 against Real Madrid. Nevertheless, the trend is pointing upwards, as coach Marco Rose’s team managed to celebrate two Bundesliga wins in a row for the first time in the new year on the last two matchdays. The aim is to build on this on Friday and put the pressure on Dortmund and Stuttgart in the battle for a place in the top flight.
In view of the 13 points collected in the last six matchdays, the convincing performances in some cases and the undisputed quality advantages, it is not surprising that the odds on the three-way market between Cologne and RB Leipzig do not even exceed 1.60 for an away win. The probability of victory is therefore estimated at over 60%, which is partly due to the impressions from the first leg. The Bulls won this match in front of their home crowd with a clear 6:0.
RB Leipzig must improve away from home
However, it should be noted that Rose’s side have recently found it far more difficult away from home than at home. The Saxons have only won one of their last five away matches in the Bundesliga. Leipzig have also not kept a clean sheet on their opponents’ pitch since September 23, 2023. Ten of the 13 goals conceded in the second half of the season have come in away games, which is why we can well imagine looking at the combined odds on the visitors’ success, including goals from both teams, ahead of the Cologne v RB Leipzig match. At Betano you can dust off a 3.00 at the top for this
Because we ultimately assume that the Central City side will control possession and create many high-caliber chances, it will once again depend on how well they exploit their chances. This has turned out to be kryptonite time and time again in recent weeks. Top scorer Lois Openda in particular has missed many good opportunities to score. However, if the knot breaks early on, such as in the last away game in Bochum (4:1), an additional bet on Leipzig scoring in both halves can be considered in view of the enormous offensive power.
Predicted line-up of RB Leipzig:
Cologne – RB Leipzig head-to-head comparison / H2H result
To date, the clubs have faced each other 13 times in the Bundesliga. Only on two occasions did 1. FC Köln come out on top. Five draws and six Leipzig victories round off the rather one-sided direct comparison. No team that the cathedral city side have faced more than ten times in the top flight have won less than RB Leipzig. The first leg was also a clear-cut affair in favor of the Saxons, who prevailed 6:0 at home. However, Leipzig’s last away win at the RheinEnergie-Stadion was more than three years ago.
Cologne – RB Leipzig betting tip
The 26th matchday in the Bundesliga opens with the game between Cologne and RB Leipzig. The betting odds clearly swing the pendulum in favor of the visitors from the east, which is not really surprising given the situation in the table. The third-last team in the table will welcome the ambitious fifth-placed team, who cannot afford to slip up in the race for those all-important CL tickets.
Despite some decent performances of late, the home side have now gone five Bundesliga games without a win. They have also lost three of their last five home games. Rose’s side, on the other hand, have 13 points from their last six Bundesliga matches, have won two in a row for the first time in 2024 and logically have far more individual quality. Leipzig’s 6-0 win in the first leg, the visitors’ outstanding attack and the absence of Hübers on the Effzeh side further complicate the task. A surprise therefore seems rather unlikely
In our eyes, there is virtually no alternative to betting on the favorite to win between Cologne and RB Leipzig. We have therefore decided against combined bets and are risking eight out of a possible ten units at maximum odds of 1.53.
