Big points at stake in the basement of the table

The cities of Cologne and Mainz are usually associated with the merry carnival. However, the fans of the two Bundesliga clubs from the carnival strongholds don’t really feel like celebrating at the moment. This is due to the dismal standings, which currently have the Nullfünfer in penultimate place and the Geißböcke in 15th. However, after a very sobering season for both sides so far, there is an opportunity to land a real big point in the direct basement duel on Sunday afternoon

The home side from the cathedral city have the better chances. On the one hand, certainly due to the home advantage, on the other hand because of the success the Baumgart team achieved in Darmstadt the previous week. The 1-0 win at the Lilies saw the Effzeh move above the bottom line for the first time in a long time and they may now be hoping for the start of a positive run. Nevertheless, betting on a home win in the match between Cologne and Mainz seems to involve a lot of risk, as FSV have been on a much better run than the hosts in recent weeks, judging by their performances

The upward trend of coach Jan Siewert’s charges, who initially took over on an interim basis following Svensson’s departure but whose calm, matter-of-fact manner has won over the boardroom and players, is not yet necessarily reflected in the results. If the team from Rheinhessen manage to build on their much-improved performances in virtually all areas, it will only be a matter of time before they can free themselves from the relegation zone. This approach is also confirmed by the Cologne vs Mainz prediction

Cologne – Statistics & current form

The feeling of being able to start the new training week with a win must have been extremely enjoyable for the professionals of 1. FC Köln last Sunday/Monday. In the away game at SV Darmstadt 98 last Friday, they achieved only their second Bundesliga win of the season. A goal from Davie Selke gave the Billy Goats an immensely important victory, catapulting them from last place to 15th.

However, there can be no talk of relaxation in the cathedral city, because with just two points ahead of bottom-placed Union Berlin and one point between them and their upcoming opponents from Rheinhessen (17th), the threat of falling back into a direct relegation place looms as early as Sunday. Although there are lower odds on a home win for Baumgart’s side between Cologne and Mainz, it should not be forgotten that the Effzeh have already conceded eight (!) defeats in front of their own fans in the calendar year 2023. Only Werder Bremen have more home defeats than 1. FC Köln in the same period

Cologne and the desperate attempt to develop an offensive threat

In addition, the aforementioned 1:0 win in Darmstadt must be put into perspective, as both relegation candidates offered absolutely meagre soccer. Coach Baumgart could not criticize his players for their will, commitment and passion, but they still lacked creativity, penetration and confidence in attack. The only ten goals scored in the entire season are the weakest figure in the German top flight. Only on one of the 14 match days so far have the cathedral city team scored two or more goals of their own.

In view of this attacking weakness, which is also evidenced by the fact that just three measly goals have been scored in the last five league games, it is certainly a reasonable approach to force a prediction of a few goals in the course of the game in the basement duel between Cologne and Mainz. In fact, a bet of under 2.5 would have gone through in four consecutive Bundesliga matches for the 15th-placed team. The last home game against Bayern was also only lost 1-0, even though Munich missed numerous high-caliber chances in the first 45 minutes alone. Incidentally, Cologne have just four points from their first six home games this season. No other club has scored worse in their own stadium.

Predicted Cologne line-up:

Mainz – Statistics & current form

Jan Siewert has been in charge of FSV Mainz 05 for four games now, and the coach of the U23s, who are based in the Regionalliga Südwest, has managed to pick up five points out of a possible twelve. After three unbeaten matches in a row against RB Leipzig (2:0), Darmstadt (0:0) and Hoffenheim (1:1), the previous week saw the first defeat under his leadership with a 1:0 defeat against SC Freiburg. Paradoxically, the Nullfünfer put in a great performance at home against the European Cup representatives from Breisgau and ultimately only failed due to their efficiency in the final third.

In general, there is a clear upward trend for the Rheinhessen side. On the one hand, the personnel situation has eased considerably, meaning that the newly sparked competition plays into the 41-year-old coach’s hands. Secondly, Siewert has managed to bring more stability back to the team with simple principles.

Two goals conceded in the last four games are a fitting indication of this. The next starting point must be the offense, which is also one of the most harmless in the league with twelve goals. Because the under 2.5 would also have gone through four times in a row with Siewert on the sidelines, the odds on a maximum of two goals in the course of the match between Cologne and Mainz are definitely worth considering

The FSV want to break the away curse

Apart from that, however, there are also decent arguments that could swing the pendulum more in FSV’s favor on Sunday afternoon. First and foremost, there are the good performances, the playful approach as well as the returned self-confidence. In addition, the Rheinhessen side need have little fear of their statistically proven weakness in aerial battles becoming a problem this weekend. The Nullfünfer have already conceded nine (!) goals from headers – the highest number in the league! However, Davie Selke and Co. have only scored one header themselves this season.

It should also not be underestimated that they have not won an away game in the German top flight since April 2023. Mainz have been winless away from home eleven times in a row, but have still managed to pick up a point in the form of a draw six times. However, as the form curve is pointing decisively upwards, we are not averse to checking the odds on an away win between Cologne and Mainz. To minimize the risk a little, but primarily on the two-way market (DNB).

Predicted Mainz line-up:

Cologne – Mainz Direct comparison / H2H balance

Of the last five Bundesliga home games since 2018, 1. FC Köln have only won one against Mainz. At the same time, however, the five-man side have only won one of their last twelve away matches in the cathedral city. Six of the last nine direct BL duels at the RheinEnergie-Stadion have ended in a draw, while six of the last nine home games between the Effzeh and FSV have also seen no more than two goals scored. In the previous season, the score was 1-1 after 90 rather intense minutes, although Mainz had won the first leg 5-0 at home against Cologne

Cologne – Mainz betting tip

The 14th matchday in the Bundesliga will be concluded on Sunday afternoon with a real basement duel. Cologne will face Mainz. Judging by the betting odds, the hosts are expected to have a slight advantage. However, we do not necessarily agree with this assessment, because although the home side have only lost two of their last six Bundesliga games, there is no real sign of a typical upward trend. Their performances still leave a lot to be desired, their offense is still the weakest in the entire league and the fact that they have only picked up four points at home is not encouraging.

We are much more confident about the situation of the visitors from Rheinhessen. Although Siewert’s side are currently behind the Billy Goats in the league table, their recent form has shown a clear upward trend. Mainz have taken a significant step forward, particularly in terms of stability and self-confidence, which now only needs to be reflected in the results. But that seems to be a matter of time

We therefore prefer a bet on the DNB 2 between Cologne and Mainz and receive exciting top odds of 2.10. In the event of a draw, the stake of seven units would be returned. Nevertheless, we are confident that the visitors’ footballing approach will prevail at the RheinEnergie-Stadion. However, if you don’t want to place a bet on the outcome of the game, a bet on the under 2.5 is probably a good bet. Given the significance of the game and the weakness of both teams in terms of finishing, a goal festival is not expected