Does Dortmund’s new minimalism also work in Cologne?
Still and secretly, Borussia Dortmund has recently put itself in a promising position in the fight for the championship. Within a week, BVB was able to close the gap on leaders Bayern Munich to four points. With a head-to-head clash on the agenda at the end of April, the Black and Yellows have realistic hopes of claiming the trophy.
However, Marco Rose and his players also know that the dream of ending the record champions’ dominance could quickly be shattered in the event of another negative run. The second-placed team must therefore be all the more focused on Sunday evening’s difficult away match in the cathedral city. Between Cologne and Dortmund odds of 2.05 on the away win are offered. Accordingly, the bookmakers definitely have some doubts that Borussia will land the next three.
This assessment is of course based, among other things, on the very satisfactory season that the Rhinelanders have played so far. Last week, Baumgart’s eleven even won 1-0 at Leverkusen to climb to seventh place. However, if we look at the recent results of BVB at the “Effzeh” and the new efficiency at the title aspirant, then it is definitely understandable to align the forecast between Cologne and Dortmund rather in the direction of the guest.
Cologne – statistics & current form
1. FC Köln is still one of the positive surprises in the current season. 39 points are on the books after 26 matchdays, which is more than ever before since the introduction of the three-point rule at the current time. Even in 2016/17, when the Rhinelanders qualified for the Europa League in fifth place, they had two fewer points after 26 matches. Considering the five-point gap to sixth place, Baumgart’s eleven can still have legitimate hopes of returning to Europe.
On the way there, it will be important for the Geißböcke to regain more consistency in their own performances in front of a home crowd. Overall, Cologne have a strong home record with seven wins, three draws and three defeats in 13 matches, although the three aforementioned defeats have come in the last six home games. The other three encounters at Rhein-Energie-Stadion, meanwhile, were each won 1-0.
Does Baumgart get the offense going better again?
Whoever, in view of these results, would now like to bet on Cologne and Dortmund scoring rather few goals on Sunday evening, we would advise against it. Although in five of the most recent six games the under 2.5 would have been crowned with success, there are various statistics that rather point to 3+ goals in this duel.
For example, the “Effzeh” has always scored at least once in the past nine Bundesliga home games against BVB. In addition, the percentage of over-goal games still prevails in their own stadium (seven out of 13). 36 goals in the past nine meetings between these teams underline our recommendation to take a look at the odds on the over 2.5 in the match Cologne vs Dortmund.
Further complicating matters from the home side’s point of view is the fact that there will be one or two absentees. In particular, the absence of Jonas Hector weighs heavily. In addition to the former international, Lemperle, Obuz, Kainz, Ljubicic, Skhiri and Schindler will also be unavailable. The options from the bench are therefore limited, despite the fact that the Cathedral City team already leads the top flight with nine wild card goals this season – together with Dortmund and Hoffenheim.
Predicted lineup of Cologne:
Schwäbe – Schmitz, Kilian, Hübers, J. Horn – Özcan – Uth, Duda, Thielmann – Andersson, Modeste
Last matches played by Köln:
Bundesliga
03/13 2022 – Bayer Leverkusen 0 – 1 1. FC Cologne
03/06 2022 – 1. FC Köln 0 – 1 Hoffenheim
02/26 2022 – Greuther Fürth 1 – 1 1. FC Köln
02/19 2022 – 1. FC Köln 1 – 0 Eintracht Frankfurt
02/11 2022 – RB Leipzig 3 – 1 1. FC Cologne
Dortmund – statistics & current form
Solutions born out of necessity have already led to a rethink at many clubs or national teams in soccer history. The best example was probably the DFB team’s back four at the 2014 World Cup, which consisted of four skilled center backs after injuries. The situation at Borussia Dortmund is not quite as extreme at the moment, but coach Marco Rose may have drawn some interesting conclusions from the two most recent games.
On the one hand, the makeshift Can/Pongracic central defense performed better than expected and kept things tight at the back in both 1-0 victories against Bielefeld and Mainz. On the other hand, players who had already been written off suddenly mutated into key performers. Passlack played on the right defensive side, Marius Wolf even scored the winning goal against Arminia and Axel Witsel, who is retiring at the end of the season, was the match-winner against Mainz, and not just because of his goal.
Is BVB really ready for the title?
Generally, one had the feeling in the aforementioned matches as if a jolt had gone through the team after the disgraceful elimination in the Europa League. Especially defensively, things have been going surprisingly well lately. Four clean sheets in nine second-round matches are impressive proof of this.
However, whether this is actually due to greater stability or is also related to the respective opponents, we will be able to observe on Sunday evening. Between Cologne and Dortmund, our prediction is rather that BVB will not remain without conceding a goal this time. Therefore, one betting option could be to combine the away win of the second-placed team with the “BTS”.
Seven wins from nine second-round matches for the Rose eleven
The basic form at the national level can be seen in any case. 22 points from nine games after the turn of the year correspond – together with RB Leipzig – the best value. For the first time, Dortmund last went without defeat in five consecutive Bundesliga games under Marco Rose. In addition, the Borussia coach has won all three of his personal duels against Steffen Baumgart. A good omen for the weekend?
The lazarette has thinned out somewhat, with some players returning from sick leave. Haaland could start from the beginning again for the first time in the third game after his comeback. Hummels is also a candidate for the starting eleven after overcoming an infection. On the other hand, the injured Moukoko, Tigges, Schmelzer, Morey and Meunier, as well as the suspended Dahoud, are not included.
Predicted lineup of Dortmund:
Kobel – Passlack, Can, Hummels, N. Schulz – Witsel – Reyna, Bellingham – M. Wolf, Haaland, Malen
Last matches of Dortmund:
Bundesliga
03/16 2022 – Mainz 05 0 – 1 Borussia Dortmund
03/13 2022 – Borussia Dortmund 1 – 0 Arminia Bielefeld
02/27 2022 – Augsburg 1 – 1 Borussia Dortmund
Europa League Final Stage
02/24 2022 – Rangers 2 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
Bundesliga
02/20 2022 – Borussia Dortmund 6 – 0 Gladbach
Cologne – Dortmund Direct comparison / H2H balance
This is the 92nd time the two clubs have faced each other in Germany’s top division. Borussia Dortmund leads the direct comparison with 39 wins compared to 28 losses and 24 draws. However, 21 of the 28 defeats have come at Cologne from BVB’s point of view.
Five of the past seven direct duels have nevertheless gone to the black-and-yellows, who prevailed 2-0 in the first leg. Hazard and Tigges scored for the runners-up at the end of October. Finally, it should be mentioned that in seven of Dortmund’s past eight away appearances in the cathedral city, the over 2.5 would always have gone through.
Cologne – Dortmund tip
At the end of the 27th matchday in the Bundesliga, it comes to the highly anticipated clash between Cologne and Dortmund on Sunday evening. According to the betting odds, we can expect an exciting match in which the black and yellows are given advantages. After the last two 1-0 victories, BVB has come within four points of FC Bayern in the standings. The Rose eleven is keen to maintain this starting position at the weekend.
Because Borussia won five of the past seven Bundesliga encounters against the “Effzeh”, presents itself in the second half of the season in an impressive form (22 of a possible 27 points) and also a certain Erling Haaland is getting better and better, we go with the assessment of the bookmakers d’accord and also consider an away victory for the most likely outcome. But then probably with goals on both sides, because we do not believe in a low-scoring match.
For one thing, the Geißböcke have always scored against BVB in their past nine Bundesliga games in front of a home crowd, and for another, a whopping 36 goals have been scored in these teams’ most recent nine duels! In seven of Cologne’s past eight home games against Dortmund, the over would have gone through 2.5.
This is why we believe that betting on at least three goals in the match between Cologne and Dortmund will once again pay off.
