Will the Lilies put a severe damper on Cologne?

The air is getting thinner and thinner for 1. FC Köln in the basement of the table. After the expected 2-0 defeat at FC Bayern last week, the gap to the relegation places has already grown to four points. The safety margin is five points away. The cathedral city team, who only have feasible opponents ahead of them in the remaining five match days, therefore need a strong final spurt. This should be heralded on Saturday afternoon as part of the 30th matchday in the Bundesliga with a three-pointer against bottom-placed Darmstadt.

Against the background that everyone expects a home win at the weekend, the task for the Billy Goats could be more difficult than expected. Although the statistics in the run-up to this match do not necessarily suggest that Cologne and Darmstadt are likely to win, the so-called soft facts must not be ignored. How will the Rhinelanders deal with the role of favorites? Will the liberated Lilies perhaps have a cream day? And how will the transfer rumors during the week affect the mood of the Schultz team?

In the following sections, we try to find answers to these questions, knowing full well that the form of the day and the luck of the game will also play a role that should not be underestimated. In view of the high risk that a potential bet on the guest would inevitably entail, we recommend the Bwin bonus. In April 2024, new customers can look forward to 100 euros on their first deposit and an additional 10 euros free bet.

Cologne – Statistics & current form

Rarely has the uncertainty at 1. FC Köln been as great as it is at the moment. On the one hand, it is not yet clear whether the Billy Goats will be active in the first or second division in the coming season. On the other hand, there are plenty of question marks regarding the squad. In the event of relegation from the Bundesliga, the cathedral cities are threatened with a sell-out.

Chabot is on the list at BVB and Frankfurt, Ljubicic is being linked with VfL Wolfsburg, as he was in the summer, and even the reliable regular keeper Schwäbe recently flirted with a move. As the Effzeh are also not allowed to sign any players for the new season due to the transfer ban, the mood in the carnival stronghold is extremely tense. The only thing that can help in this respect is staying in the league, which has once again receded further into the distance since last weekend. Because their direct rivals from Mainz scored another three points, they are now four points behind the relegation places

How is Cologne dealing with their unusual status as favorites?

On Saturday, only a win counts. If we look at the bookmakers’ odds ahead of the match between Cologne and Darmstadt, this seems absolutely feasible. The top odds offered for a home win are just 1.52 in the Betano sports betting app. The probability of winning is therefore a whopping 65%, which is somewhat exaggerated in our eyes. With a total of just four wins in 29 matches and only twelve points collected from 14 home games, the Rhinelanders have so far failed to prove their suitability for the first division in many cases.

To make matters worse, Cologne still have the Bundesliga’s most harmless offense with 23 goals scored and have already failed to score in twelve league matches. The Effzeh can certainly be expected to do far better with their own fans behind them than away from home, but the supposed home game bonus also brings with it certain dangers. Should things not go as planned and Cologne fail to find solutions against a tightly packed SVD defense, unrest and dissatisfaction could quickly set in in the stands. The Billy Goats are not used to being the favorites under pressure. Value is therefore not to be found in the aforementioned 1.52 for a home win.

Predicted line-up for Cologne:

Darmstadt – Statistics & current form

The Bundesliga adventure will come to an end for SV Darmstadt after just one season. Nobody doubts that anymore. The gap to the relegation places is twelve points. In other words: Should Mainz score at the weekend and the prediction on the Effzeh in the Cologne vs. Darmstadt duel actually pay off, the immediate relegation of the South Hessians would already be certain after the 30th matchday.

Strictly speaking, however, the Lilies have long since resigned themselves to relegation to the lower house. Last weekend’s 1-0 defeat to SC Freiburg meant that even the boldest optimists have lost their remaining hopes. However, this does not necessarily have to have a negative impact on the expected performance of Torsten Lieberknecht’s team. It is possible that a certain burden has been lifted, the players can play freely and want to bow out of the top flight with dignity. We would therefore not categorically rule out a surprise points win in the run-up to the game

Does Lieberknecht’s record against Schultz remain unblemished?

The previous week’s performance in particular should be encouraging, as the Lilies were the better team for long stretches in the home match against SC Freiburg, but were unable to reward themselves for their efforts. SVD also kept up well in various other matches, but suffered individual lapses in the decisive moments and remained too harmless in attack. However, we would not deny that Lieberknecht’s team is fundamentally capable of competing with other first division teams. Especially not against their direct table neighbors from the Rhineland.

On a positive note, the aforementioned coach Torsten Lieberknecht has won all three of his personal duels against Timo Schultz to date. It is to be hoped that the likeable soccer coach will finally put an end to his almost unbelievable run of 22 Bundesliga games without a win. In order for that to happen at the weekend, the South Hessians should be on their guard, especially from set-pieces. Cologne have scored twelve of their 23 goals from set-pieces, while the Lilies have already conceded 17 goals from set-pieces.

If you want to bet on the visitors possibly taking a 1-0 lead at the weekend – for example through a counter-attack – Betano has an impressive 3.00 at the top

Predicted line-up for Darmstadt:

Cologne – Darmstadt Direct comparison / H2H balance

There have been nine Bundesliga matches between Cologne and Darmstadt so far. The Billy Goats have never lost to their upcoming opponents in the German top flight. They have won seven and drawn two. The first leg, however, was a very close affair. Davie Selke’s right-footed shot after 60 minutes made it 1:0 for the Rhinelanders, who lost their last home game against the Lilies in the 2018/19 second division season 2:1.2

Cologne – Darmstadt betting tip

1. FC Köln face a must-win game at the weekend. If coach Timo Schultz’s team want to keep dreaming of staying in the league, they urgently need a win on Saturday afternoon against Darmstadt, who are bottom of the table and have not won in 22 matches. However, the Lilies no longer have the dream of staying in the league. Twelve points behind the relegation places with five games remaining, the South Hessians will not be able to catch up. But perhaps the hopeless situation will also mean that many of the things that have not worked under pressure so far this season will work.

This is one of the reasons why we are far from predicting a home win in the Cologne v Darmstadt clash. The three-way odds are too low and the potential sources of danger are too pronounced. In addition, one must not forget that the cathedral city team has only managed four wins so far this season, has the worst offense in the league and has had little to no experience with the role of favorite

Our preferred approach is therefore to play the double chance X2 odds between Cologne and Darmstadt. Bwin offers 2.55 at the top, which we play with four units.