Will Chile confirm their home strength?

While the field of participants for the upcoming 2024 European Football Championship in Germany is being determined in Europe, qualification for the 2026 finals has already begun in South America. In South America, qualifying for the finals is not a Herculean task; after all, six of ten teams have their ticket firmly in the bag and the seventh still has another opportunity via the intercontinental playoffs. The third matchday is scheduled for the night from Thursday to Friday, with the tip between Chile and Peru clearly favoring the hosts.

In the September double, both teams suffered a weak start and are holding on to just one point after two games. However, given the very long qualifying period and the large number of World Cup tickets, the weak start is not yet a reason to panic. There is still plenty of time, but at some point teams have to start scoring.

The match will be played at the Estadio Monumental David Arellano. The match will start on Thursday night at 2 a.m. Central European Time. The best bookmakers offer betting odds of maximum 1.77 between Chile and Peru with a forecast on the host. The decisive factor for this is in particular the home advantage.

Chile – Statistics & current form

Two times in a row (2015, 2016) La Roja won the Copa America title and finally established themselves as one of the best national teams in the world. However, the truth is also that Chile failed to qualify for the last two World Cups. The heyday of the “golden generation” is long gone. For many years, Arturo Vidal, Alexis Sanchez and Claudio Bravo concealed the fact that a complete generation was missing behind them. The old stars have left their mark on soccer in Chile, but they are long past their zenith and some have already ended their careers, are injured or are long past their prime.

Lots of experience, little talent

However, some “oldies” are also in the line-up of the current number 36 in the FIFA world rankings in October 2023. Gary Medel, goalkeeper Gabriel Arias (both 36), Alexis Sanchez or Charles Aranguiz (both 34) are such players who are long past their prime but are still needed. Chile’s age average is enormous and, with the exception of Ben Brereton Diaz (Villarreal), there are no notable players under the age of 25 who hold Chilean citizenship.

The strong Chilean performances are still in the back of quite a few fans’ minds and tend to rate the team stronger than it actually is in 2023. In September, they first suffered a 3-1 defeat to Uruguay before their home game against Colombia ended goalless. In the process, former Bayern legionnaire Arturo Vidal (36) suffered a serious knee injury and will not be back on the pitch until 2024.

Vidal is one of the mentality players who have always whipped Chile forward. His absence certainly represents a weakening. Nevertheless, there is no denying the role of favorites in favor of the Chileans. Nevertheless, a goal festival is not to be expected, as the Chileans often lack penetrating power in their forward play (one goal in three international matches). Accordingly, the odds on Chile vs. Peru betting on the under 2.5 or even the bet “Both teams score? No” are a good option.

Predicted lineup of Chile:
No information available.

Peru – statistics & current form

Peru is currently ranked 22nd in the current FIFA world rankings, which puts them well ahead of the Chileans. However, this world ranking has only limited significance and should not be overestimated. Peru, who were represented at the 2018 World Cup in Russia, is a team where the thesis “the star is the team” applies. There are no ringing names in head coach Juan Reynoso’s squad.

Two goals in six internationals

The 2023 calendar year has not been particularly successful for “La Blanquirroja” (The Red and Whites) so far. Six international matches have been played so far and only the friendly match with South Korea managed a narrow 1-0 victory. In the remaining five international matches, the offense was only able to score one more goal (in the 1:4 against Japan). In the remaining four international matches, Peru remained without a goal of its own.

Peru started the current World Cup qualifying campaign with a goalless draw in Paraguay before upsetting the big favorites Brazil for a long time a few days later. In the final phase, however, Peru conceded a goal and conceded a narrow 1-0 defeat. This means that five of the six international matches in 2023 ended with a Under 2.5 or “Both teams meet? No”. These figures also underline between Chile and Peru these two top tips.

Another argument for these bets provide the away matches in the World Cup qualifiers for the 2022 finals in Qatar. Thereby, there were only 18 goals to be seen in total in Peru’s nine guest appearances (goal ratio 7:11). The no-name team from Peru operates from a secure defensive position and tries to set pinpricks through quick switching moments. The top priority, however, is “safety first”.

Predicted lineup of Peru:
No available information.

Chile – Peru Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

In South America, home field advantage has tremendous importance and this is evident when looking at the historical comparison between these two teams. In 30 of Chile’s 39 home games against Peru, predicting the home side to win has been the correct choice. Only twice did Peru return home with a home win, both times in a friendly. In eleven attempts at World Cup qualifying so far, Peru has only managed a draw twice. The clear goal difference is 26:9 and impressively underlines the clear role of the hosts as favorites.

Chile – Peru Tip

The two teams have not been particularly convincing in their first two qualifying matches and only have one point to show for their efforts thanks to a goalless draw. The opinion often prevails that many goals are scored in South America due to the enthusiasm for the game and the large number of well-known offensive players, but the reality is different. Rather, in these games, often a “Under 2.5” is the right choice. We also see good chances with Chile against Peru with this forecast.

Chilean soccer definitely has its best days behind it, but we still share the opinion that in this qualifier the hosts will ultimately come out on top. In particular, the direct comparison with countless home victories as well as the well-known away weakness of the red and white from Peru are the decisive arguments that support the prediction on the home victory in Chile vs Peru. Six units are used as stake for this bet.