Can La Roja gain some breathing space in the basement of the table?
While in Europe it is not even clear which nations will all take part in the 2024 European Championship in Germany, the CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifiers 2026 are already in their fifth matchday in South America. In the qualifying mode, which is traditionally played as a league system in which all ten members face each other in a first and second leg, there is now a basement duel between Chile and Paraguay
Both nations have only won one of their four matches and are in seventh and eighth place with four points. However, only the top six teams are guaranteed a place at the World Cup in Canada, Mexico and the USA, while the seventh-placed team still has the chance to advance via the intercontinental play-offs. The fact that both teams are in desperate need of points has a bearing on our Chile vs Paraguay prediction
In particular, the four games involving Paraguay so far have been absolute fare in footballing terms. A total of just three goals have been scored in these games, which definitely has to do with the extremely destructive and defensive approach of the Guaraníes, who will find it difficult to get to the 2026 World Cup. In fact, the Albirroja desperately need points, especially in the duels with the lower-ranked teams.
As the odds offered by the bookmakers in our bookmaker rankings are very high, we think it is all the more interesting to bet on over 2.5 goals in this international match. After all, a test match between the two teams in March of this year ended with a brilliant 3:2 win for Chile. In fact, at least three goals have been scored in five of their last eight meetings
Chile – statistics & current form
The Chile national soccer team has had an extremely eventful decade. On the one hand, La Roja won the Copa América twice in a row in 2015 and 2016, which are still the country’s only two titles in this competition.
On the other hand, Chile recently missed out on two World Cups in a row and did not appear in either Russia or Qatar, having previously reached the round of 16 in 2010 and South Africa and 2014 in Brazil
Only eighth with four points out of a possible twelve
The longing for a return to the biggest possible soccer stage is correspondingly great. However, after four of the 18 group games played in the CONMEBOL 2016 World Cup qualifiers, the starting position could be much better.
La Roja have only won one of their four games so far and are currently in eighth place with four points and a goal difference of 3:6. That means they would not even make the intercontinental play-offs, which they missed out on by five points in the 2022 World Cup qualifiers
Only one win in the last five international matches
The team coached by Eduardo Berizzo now needs a turnaround and will be looking to force one at home against Paraguay, against whom they recorded a 3-2 home win in March this year. In principle, the betting odds for a home win for La Roja against Paraguay are also under a good star, especially as there is a lot of quality on board with Alexis Sánchez and Gary Medel.
However, the fact that cornerstones such as Charles Aránguiz and Arturo Vidal are not in the squad is also driving forward the much-needed generational change that has characterized recent results. Chile have won just one of their last five international matches (two draws, two defeats).
Chile’s probable line-up:
Cortés – Suazo – P. Díaz – Maripán – Medel – Pulgar – Méndez – Echeverría – Aravena – B. Díaz – Sánchez
Paraguay – Statistics & current form
The Paraguayan national soccer team has not only won the Copa América twice in 1953 and 1979, but has also successfully qualified for the World Cup eight times.
Most recently, the Albirroja managed to do so at four consecutive tournaments between 1998 and 2010, with the highlight certainly being the final round in South Africa, where the Guaraníes advanced to the quarter-finals in 2010 and were only narrowly beaten 1-0 in the final by the eventual world champions Spain.
Recently at home against Bolivia with the first three-pointer
The three finals in Brazil (2014), Russia (2018) and Qatar (2022) then took place without Paraguay. However, after four of 18 matches played in the CONMEBOL 2026 World Cup qualifiers, La Albirroja are still only in seventh place.
After three winless and goalless international matches at the start of the league system, the Guaraníes celebrated their first three-pointer (1-0) at home to Bolivia in October, which they must now build on. However, the odds for Chile v Paraguay are against Daniel Garnero’s side. The odds of 4.75 for betting tip 2 indicate a clear underdog role
Not scored in six of the last nine international matches
The Albirroja’s lack of offensive penetration is responsible for this. The Paraguayan side have scored just five goals in their last nine international matches, of which they have won just two.
In fact, Paraguay have failed to score in six of their last nine internationals. The fact that they have only conceded two goals so far in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying 2026 proves that their defensive approach is fundamentally sound. However, if the Guaraníes do not flip the offensive switch in time, the gap to the World Cup starting places could soon widen significantly again.
Paraguay’s expected line-up:
Coronel – Alonso – Balbuena – Rojas – Gómez – Sánchez – Villasanti – Gamarra – Rojas – Sanabria – Cardozo
Chile – Paraguay head-to-head / H2H result
Head to head: 28 – 7 – 29
A total of 64 international matches have been played between the two nations, who also played each other in the Copa America final in 1979. The overall balance is very even. Chile and Paraguay last faced each other in March 2023 as part of a test match, which the Chilean side won 3:2. In five of the last eight international matches between the two nations, there have always been at least three goals scored
Chile – Paraguay betting tip
The bookmakers see the Chilean selection as the favorites, but we think that’s a very bold assessment. In any case, we would prefer to avoid the three-way system with our prediction for Chile vs Paraguay, especially as the bet on over 2.5 goals is a very interesting alternative. The fact that Paraguay have only scored three goals in their four qualifying matches points to a rather low-scoring game. However, the Guaraníes will be forced to score in Santiago if they are to secure their first World Cup appearance in 16 years
We expect the visitors to be a little more offensive than in recent games. Accordingly, there should be more goals than few goals, which is why we find a lot of value in the betting tip on over 2.5 goals.
