Will Colombia make up ground in Chile?
The European national teams are currently fighting for tickets to the 2024 European Football Championship in Germany, in South America these days already sounded the whistle for the qualification for the upcoming World Cup. On the second matchday, it comes to the duel between Chile and Colombia, among other things, with a bet on the three-way market almost balanced betting odds are offered by the best-known bookmakers. The home advantage speaks for the home side, for the guests the positive start in the current qualifying.
The home side around veteran Arturo Vidal deservedly suffered a 3-1 defeat in their opener in Uruguay, while Colombia were able to underline their role as favorites in their home match against Venezuela and took the three points with a 1-0 win. The increase in the number of participants in the 2026 World Cup in Canada, Mexico and the USA means that six of the ten South American teams will be represented. The seventh-placed team in the table still has the chance to jump on the World Cup train via an intercontinental playoff. The 18-game South American qualifying campaign does not necessarily promise much excitement in this respect.
The clash in Santiago de Chile pits two teams that were much stronger a few years ago than they are in 2023. Chile continues to field an old guard that has, however, already passed the late autumn of its career. Colombia no longer has the standout players of days gone by, but is stronger collectively
When many fans think of South American soccer, they think of playfulness, creativity, and outstanding strikers. However, the games are often characterized by few goals, as the hard pace of many teams interrupts any flow of the game. Therefore, our prediction for Chile vs. Colombia is quite obvious on few goals. The match will kick off on Tuesday night at 2:30 a.m. Central European Time.
Chile – statistics & current form
2010 and 2014 saw Chile’s golden generation reach the World Cup round of 16, before crowning it all with Copa America triumphs in the following two years (2015 and 2016). Arturo Vidal & Co have finally made themselves immortal with these two title wins. More recently, however, successes have been few and far between, and in the last two finals the Reds from Chile have only been left with the role of spectators.
A national team without young talent
The increase in the number of participants means that Chile can hope to be represented at a major event again. But whether the prospects in 2026 are actually positive must be highly doubted. After the golden generation, the Chileans are missing a generation that can close this gap. Players like Gary Medel and Arturo Vidal (both 36), Alexis Sanchez and Charles Aranguiz (both 34) are still important components of head coach Eduardo Berizzo’s squad. However, the ravages of time are gnawing away at the old stars and the weakening performances are therefore not really surprising.
Chile started 2023 with three victories, but Paraguay, Cuba and the Dominican Republic are not necessarily the benchmarks. In their first competitive match, they suffered a clear defeat in Uruguay. A shot ratio of 18:7 in favor of Uruguay speaks volumes. Only the home advantage speaks in favor of the home side in this match, otherwise it is hard to find arguments that justify a prediction on Chile vs.
Predicted lineup of Chile:
Cortes; Mehssatou, Medel, Marzipan, Suazo; Osorio, Vidal, Pulgar, Brereton; Nunez, Valdes
Colombia – statistics & current form
After a quarterfinal appearance in 2014 and a round of 16 appearance in 2018, Los Cafeteros were also left with only a spectator role at the recent finals in Qatar. In sixth place, they missed out on a playoff ticket by a razor-thin margin. The Colombian national team’s performance curve has been on a steep downward trajectory in recent years. After the drastic drop in performance by superstar James Rodriguez, the team increasingly degenerated into mediocrity.
Unlike the Chilean team, however, the generation change has already been completed and head coach Nestor Lorenzo’s squad is stronger than that of the Chileans. Especially across the board, Colombia has more players of higher quality than the Chileans. The team is led by Liverpool legionnaire Luis Diaz.
Lorenzo with impressive stats
The aforementioned Nestor Lorenzo took over the national team after they failed to qualify for the World Cup. Since then, the Los Cafeteros have played nine international matches under his wing and have yet to suffer a single defeat. They have drawn against the USA and South Korea, and won the remaining seven matches. Among the victories was a 2-0 win over Germany in June. The victory against Japan in March of this year also falls into the “respectable success” category.
The first competitive match under coach Lorenzo ended last weekend with a 1-0 win. Neo-Werder attacker Rafael Borre headed in the only goal of the day right after the restart. Colombia was superior for the entire duration of the match (70:30 percent possession, 13:7 shots) in the home match against Paraguay. They also managed to keep the “zero” for the third time in a row. This serves as an indication for us in the match between Chile and Colombia to bet on an under 2.5 or the bet “Both teams score? No”.
Probable lineup of Colombia:
Vargas; Munoz, Mina, Lucumi, Machado; Arias, Lerma, Rodriguez; Cuadrado, Borre, Diaz
Chile – Colombia Direct comparison / H2H record
Throughout all competitions, the two national teams have faced each other 43 times so far, with “La Roja” from Chile holding a narrow lead in direct comparisons with 15 wins compared to eleven defeats. However, Colombia won the last encounter. In qualifying for the last World Cup finals in Qatar, Los Cafeteros picked up four points in two games against their upcoming opponents. A draw in Chile (2-2) was followed by a 3-1 home win. Chile’s last win in World Cup qualifying dates back to 2009.
Chile – Colombia Tip
With six fixed World Cup tickets, qualification is an absolute must for both teams. In the 18-game qualifying campaign, the teams can also afford some slip-ups without any direct consequences. However, a positive start will naturally provide an early cushion. Los Cafeteros can make that dream start a reality in the night from Tuesday to Wednesday. Between Chile and Kolumbie, even odds are offered on the three-way market.
However, this assessment of the bookmakers must be critically questioned. The home advantage is very important in South America, but it is the only argument we can give Chile. Colombia has been convincing in recent months with consistently strong results (7-2-0 record under the new coach) and has a squad that is to be rated stronger. We have a moderate four-unit bet on Chile vs. Colombia in our forecast for an away win. In a departure from the three-way market, betting on a low-scoring game is also a good option.
