Will Wimbledon throw the next favorite out of the competition?
In the 2nd round of the EFL Cup, Chelsea FC will host fourth division side AFC Wimbledon. The roles could hardly be more clearly distributed, because while the home side is one of the most successful clubs in England, the guests narrowly escaped relegation to the National League in the preseason. For this reason, the bookmakers’ betting odds between Chelsea and Wimbledon are clearly against a win for the visiting team. Anything other than a clear victory for the first division club would already be a surprise.
Chelsea is the clear favorite in this duel, but could only win one of the last ten home games. It was only last weekend that the Blues broke the negative streak with a 3-0 win over Luton Town and celebrated their first home win since the beginning of March. It was also the first win after six games without a win and thus a real redemption. Now it remains to be seen whether the FCC can build on this success or fall back into old patterns.
Wimbledon was one of the weakest away teams in League Two last season, picking up just 20 points from 23 games. However, with seven points from the first three away games, the tide has now turned. Nevertheless, the difference in class cannot be denied, as the opponents so far have not been anywhere near the same level as the Blues. Therefore, between Chelsea and Wimbledon, the odds of the bookmakers also clearly speak for a victory of the home team.
We recommend the tip “both teams score – yes” between Chelsea and Wimbledon. The home side are of course the clear favorites, but especially against a clear underdog could lack the necessary concentration and thus result in mistakes. In addition, Pochettino will rotate a lot, so coordination errors are not excluded. Therefore, we think a consolation goal from the visiting team is quite realistic.
Chelsea – statistics & current form
Chelsea is currently in tenth place in the Premier League and took only four points from the first three games. The start to the new season was thus very bumpy and fits the current situation in which the club finds itself. After finishing twelfth in the preseason, the Londoners will not participate in a European competition for the first time in a long time. For the new season, Mauricio Pochettino’s team has clearly set its sights on a return to the European stage and thus at least sixth place.
Transfer madness
No club in the world spent as much money as Chelsea this summer. The Blues strengthened themselves with ten players and spent 417.70 million euros. On the other hand, the club also sold twelve players and was thus able to earn 254.90 million euros. Nevertheless, the overall balance remains negative at -162.20 million euros and therefore one or the other departure could still follow. Trevoh Chalobah, Callum Hudson-Odoi and Bashir Humphreys, for example, are still for sale and could again bring some money into the coffers.
Always good for a goal
Mauricio Pochettino’s side have scored five goals in their first three competitive games of the new season, not once going without a goal of their own. However, with Mudryk, Broja, Nkunku and Chukwuemeka, Chelsea FC are missing some options in the attacking area.
The most striking player so far is Raheem Sterling, who moved to London from Manchester City for 56.20 million euros last summer. In the game against Luton Town, the 28-year-old winger was the Man of the Match and is currently also the Blues’ top scorer.
Defensive
Apart from the match against promoted Luton, the Blues’ back line seemed anything but solid. In the first two games against Liverpool and West Ham, Mauricio Pochettino’s team allowed a number of great chances. It is not surprising, therefore, that Chelsea FC have already had to clear the ball out of their own net four times. In addition, with Reece James, Trevoh Chalobah, Wesley Fofana and Benoit Badiashile missing some defenders due to injury.
Predicted lineup of Chelsea:
Sanchez – Maatsen, Bashir Humphreys, Disasi, Colwill, Gusto – Caicedo, Fernandez, Madueke, Ugochukwu – Jackson
Wimbledon – statistics & current form
Wimbledon are currently in fifth place in the fourth English league and have remained unbeaten so far. Johnnie Jackson’s side picked up nine points from their first five league games, making for a surprisingly good start to the season.
In the previous season, AFC was still fighting against relegation and finished the 2022/23 season in 21st place. Staying in the league is therefore the top priority in the new year, and anything above that would of course be a complete success. With 41 matchdays still to go, the visitors should not be complacent for a long time yet.
Round one
In the first round of the EFL Cup, Wimbledon came away with a very surprising 2-1 win over Coventry City. Johnnie Jackson’s side were 1-0 down until the 86th minute, when Omar Bugiel and Ryan Mclean turned the game around. The victory was not really deserved, however, as the second-division club missed six great chances and thus failed due to their own inability. It therefore seems very unrealistic to expect Chelsea FC, who are much stronger than their first-round opponents, to progress to the next round.
Offensive pinpricks
The visitors scored nine goals in six competitive matches this season and went only once without scoring a goal of their own. In all six games, Wimbledon have been able to create at least two great chances and will therefore be looking for scoring opportunities in the game against Chelsea.
The standout man in AFC’s attack is James Tilley. The new signing from Crawley Town has already scored four goals and is the visiting team’s top scorer with a total of five. The transfer thus seems to have paid off early and also on both sides.
Defensive Luck
With only three goals conceded in the first six competitive games, the visitors’ backline looked very solid. Nevertheless, Johnnie Jackson’s side conceded at least one big chance in all games apart from the match against Colchester United. The visiting team was therefore often lucky that the ball did not end up in its own goal. The underdogs will need the same luck in their clash with Chelsea, otherwise it will be a straightforward affair.
Predicted lineup of Wimbledon:
Bass – Ogundere, Lewis, Johnson, Brown – Tilley, Little, Reeves, Neufville – Bugiel, Al-Hamadi
Chelsea – Wimbledon Direct comparison / H2H record
The direct comparison between the two teams is quickly summarized. The two clubs have never met in their history and thus celebrate a premium next Tuesday. Of course, this is a bit of a disadvantage for our analysis, as it is difficult for us to assess in advance how the two playing styles will interact. Nevertheless, as a first division team, the Blues naturally remain the clear favorite. For this reason, our prediction between Chelsea and Wimbledon clearly goes in the direction of the home side.
Chelsea – Wimbledon tip
We play between Chelsea and Wimbledon the tip “Chelsea scores in both halves”. The home side are the clear favorites and should therefore dominate the match from the start. Since the visitors already conceded a number of chances against Coventry City, the Blues’ much stronger offense is likely to create a number of scoring opportunities as well. We are therefore sure that we will be able to marvel at at least one goal from the home team in both legs of the game.
Alternatively, we recommend odds for “Chelsea to win both halves” between Chelsea and Wimbledon. This tip brings a bit more risk, but does not seem unrealistic. Normally, the home side would have to win clearly, especially in their own stadium, and not give the underdog the slightest chance. The class difference should therefore also be reflected in the result.
