Do the Blues lay the foundation at home in the first leg?
Things are heating up at Chelsea Football Club at the moment. Romelu Lukaku’s interview is still causing stress for coach Thomas Tuchel’s team. Tuchel’s decision to leave his best striker out of Sunday’s all-important Premier League clash with the Reds was seen as a strong signal and the right move on the island.
It will now be all the more interesting to see how the ongoing farce in the capital continues. In any case, there are many indications that the Belgian will not be on the pitch for the Blues on Wednesday evening either. That is when the semi-final first leg of the EFL Cup, the English League Cup, will take place. Chelsea will meet Tottenham and are favourites according to the odds. At the top, 2.05 is offered on a home win for the reigning Champions League winners.
Before making a final assessment, however, several factors must be considered in the analysis: Who places more emphasis on the more important of the two national cup competitions? How do things look in terms of personnel? And who will take more risks in the first 90 minutes with a view to the second leg in exactly one week’s time at Spurs’ stadium? A good Chelsea vs Tottenham prediction can only be made after these key points have been clarified in detail. We have done that for you below!
Chelsea – Statistics & current form
Happiness and frustration sometimes lie very close together in football. That was also the case at the weekend for Chelsea FC, who quickly fell 2-0 behind in the chasing duel against Liverpool, but managed to level the score before the break. In the second half, at the latest, the Blues were closer to the three points than the Reds. All in all, coach Thomas Tuchel’s team put in a good performance, especially in view of the ‘Romelu Lukaku’ issue.
In general, however, it became clear once again that the 2021 Champions League winners are extremely difficult to defeat in their own stadium. Since the German coach took over at the end of January, the Blues have only lost four home games. In 2021/22, they lost 1-0 to Manchester City, their only defeat at home. Even though five of their last six PL home games have ended in draws, we can well imagine that a bet on a home win will pay off this time between Chelsea and Tottenham.
If semi-finals, then usually finals…
The fact that the six-time English champions would love to lift the trophy in the EFL Cup again speaks for this. The last time this was achieved was in 2015. In the past six years, however, they have been eliminated in the fourth round four times. In five of the most recent seven semi-final appearances, they have reached the final after a first leg and a second leg. Is this a good omen for the 180 minutes plus a possible penalty shoot-out against Spurs?
However, there is a smaller question mark than usual behind the personnel situation. Compared to other teams, the Blues have been relatively immune to infections. Moreover, there will not be many changes in the starting eleven, especially since “only” the FA Cup match against the amateur club Chesterfield is on the agenda this weekend. Nevertheless, a minor castling for the purpose of load control cannot be ruled out.
However, this does not necessarily have to be a major disadvantage, as became clear in the previous rounds, when a much rejuvenated Stamford Bridge side knocked Brentford, Southampton and Aston Villa out of the competition. Combined with the home advantage and the fact that the foundation for the final is to be laid at their own stadium, we see a promising value in the Tuchel eleven’s treble. James, Chilwell, Christensen and Werner will still definitely be missing. Keeper Mendy, meanwhile, is away at the Africa Cup. Despite this, the Blues still have enough quality and depth available in the squad.
Predicted Chelsea line-up:
Kepa; Azpilicueta, Rudiger, Sarr; Hudson-Odoi, Jorginho, Kovacic, Alonso; Ziyech, Pulisic; Havertz
Last matches played by Chelsea:
Premier League
01/02 2022 – Chelsea London 2 – 2 Liverpool FC
12/29 2021 – Chelsea London 1 – 1 Brighton
12/26 2021 – Aston Villa 1 – 3 Chelsea London
Carabao Cup
12/22 2021 – Brentford 0 – 2 Chelsea London
Premier League
12/19 2021 – Wolverhampton 0 – 0 Chelsea London
Tottenham – Statistics & current form
Tottenham have played eleven games under Antonio Conte in the competition so far. Only the 1:2 against the Slovakian underdog NS Mura was a defeat. In the Premier League, there have been five wins and three draws. Nevertheless, those responsible are not satisfied at the moment. This is mainly due to the fact that the team does not really shine in terms of football and is more conspicuous for its stable defence than for its attractive attacking football.
The best example of this was the flattering 1-0 win at relegation candidates Watford at the weekend, which was only secured by a goal in injury time. If Harry Kane and Co. can’t step it up a gear or two on Wednesday night, a prediction of a home win between Chelsea and Tottenham is close.
Tottenham continue to have huge problems away from home
Apart from that, it should give pause for thought that the Lilywhites have only recorded eleven points away from home this season. Even more worrying is the mere seven PL goals scored at opposition stadiums. Only Newcastle United and Norwich City scored less away from home than the star ensemble from the capital. Under Conte, the aforementioned 1-0 win at Watford on Saturday was even the first away win in the fourth match.
Finally, let’s take a look at the Spurs personnel that the Italian coach will most likely rely on. Bergwijn, Romero and Sessegnon are missing due to injury. This weekend’s FA Cup match against Morecambe is more of a stress management exercise, so we expect the majority of Tottenham Hotspur Football Club’s key players to be on the pitch as well.
Predicted line-up of Tottenham:
Lloris; Tanganga, Sanchez, Davies; Emerson, Winks, Hojbjerg, Reguilon; Son, Kane, Gil
Last matches played by Tottenham:
Premier League
01/01 2022 – Watford 0 – 1 Tottenham
12/28 2021 – Southampton 1 – 1 Tottenham
12/26 2021 – Tottenham 3 – 0 Crystal Palace
Carabao Cup
12/22 2021 – Tottenham 2 – 1 West Ham
Premier League
12/19 2021 – Tottenham 2 – 2 Liverpool FC
Chelsea – Tottenham Tip
Only well-known clubs are still in the race to win the English EFL Cup title. While Arsenal and Liverpool will play the second semi-final on Thursday, the London derby between Chelsea and Tottenham will take place one day earlier. Lower betting odds are offered on a home win, even though Antonio Conte has not lost a single match against an opponent from the island during his time as Spurs coach.
However, that could change as the Lilywhites take on the reigning Champions League winners, who have only lost out to Manchester City at home this season and put in a strong performance at home to Liverpool at the weekend.
Unlike in the previous rounds, it is to be expected that both coaches will not change their starting eleven in several positions. The reason is the upcoming FA Cup weekend, when both Premier League clubs have more than doable opponents ahead of them. It is all the more likely, however, that the teams will play for victory in the important semi-final first leg. The Blues in their own stadium probably even more so than Spurs, who have had their strengths more in the game against the ball lately anyway.
On balance, therefore, we have decided to place a bet between Chelsea and Tottenham that the Tuchel team will win their home match.
