Will Salzburg spoil the Potter’s debut with the Blues?

A new era begins at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday night. A scenario that was not even hinted at a week ago is now reality. Following the surprise sacking of Thomas Tuchel, Graham Potter now takes over at the Blues. His debut last weekend was postponed by the death of the Queen, now he starts his Blues adventure in the Champions League. Potter will face Austrian serial champions Red Bull Salzburg with his new club Chelsea.

While Chelsea surprisingly lost their first group match 1-0 in Zagreb last Thursday, the Bulls from the city of Mozart were able to score in their clash with AC Milan. A 1-1 draw, which in the end was a little flattering for the Italian champions. Salzburg once again proved to be competitive on the international stage, but is still considered to be a severe underdog on Wednesday. Odds of under 1.40 are offered for a Chelsea home win over Red Bull Salzburg.

The match-free weekend in the Premier League was certainly beneficial for neo-coach Potter to help the team internalise his own playing philosophy. But will this be enough to turn things around after a poor start to the season? Or can the blood-young Bullen eleven surprise again? The match kicks off on Wednesday evening at 9 p.m.

Chelsea – Statistics & current form

In his first statement, Thomas Tuchel expressed his utter disappointment at the abrupt end to his tenure with the Blues. He said he had never seen this development coming, even though there had been differences of opinion between new owner Todd Boehly and the successful German coach in recent weeks. The decision against Tuchel, however, once again underlines the fast pace of football. With the former Brighton coach Graham Potter, a new coach was signed for whom Chelsea paid no less than 23 million euros (!) in transfer fees.

Graham Potter – from Sweden’s fourth division to the top flight

Potter started his coaching career in Sweden’s fourth division with Östersunds FK in 2011 and spent seven years there, leading the team from amateur football to the sixteenth finals of the UEFA Europa League (knocked out by Arsenal) before spending a year with Swansea City and most recently three seasons with Brighton & Hove Albion.

The English media refer to his game as “Potterball”. His style is characterised by a lot of possession (only Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea had more possession than Brighton last year) and enormous flexibility. His tactical changes during a game are reminiscent of Pep Guardiola at times, switching between a three-man and four-man backline within minutes.

One defeat in 20 CL home games

The defeat at the nominally weakest team in this group has massively increased the pressure on the shoulders of Havertz & Co. Another setback against Salzburg would make the round of 16 a distant prospect before the Milan double. In any case, the home strength speaks for the English top club. Internationally, Chelsea have won 13 of their last 20 home games in the Champions League group stage, with six games ending in a draw. Their only defeat came against Spanish representatives Valencia in September 2019.

Given these bare figures, betting on a home win between Chelsea and Red Bull Salzburg is quite obvious, but there is no value to be found in the 1×2 win market with the betting odds currently on offer. Especially since Chelsea is still extremely difficult to assess in the first game under Potter.

Predicted Chelsea line-up:
Mendy – Cucurella, Thiago Silva, Koulibaly, James – Jorginho, Kovacic, Gallagher – Havertz, Mount – Sterling

Last matches played by Chelsea:

Champions League Grp. E
06/09/2022 – Dinamo Zagreb 1 – 0 FC Chelsea

Premier League
03/09/2022 – Chelsea FC 2 – 1 West Ham

31/08/2022 – Southampton 2 – 1 Chelsea FC

27/08/2022 – Chelsea FC 2 – 1 Leicester

21/08/2022 – Leeds 3 – 0 Chelsea FC

Red Bull Salzburg – Statistics & current form

Between AC Milan and Chelsea, the away game in the tranquil Innviertel region against SV Ried was on the agenda. Jaissle demanded full concentration from his team for this match and did not want to focus on the performance at Stamford Bridge yet. His team implemented the instructions consistently and already led 2-0 after 15 minutes. In the end, it was a relaxed 3-0 victory, in which Jaissle was able to rotate the team in order to save energy for the upcoming tasks.

Youth research

After reaching the last 16 of the top flight for the first time last year, Salzburg have set their sights on the same goal this year. With AC Milan and Chelsea, however, there are two competitors who are to be ranked above the bulls. Jaissle even put the Blues from London a notch above the Rossoneri and described the performance at Stamford Bridge as a “Herculean task”.

But he also believes his young guns can pull off a surprise if the team reaches the performance limit. In the first match against AC Milan, only one Bullen player in the starting eleven was older than 24. Captain Andreas Ulmer, soon to be 37, is the only veteran in the squad, otherwise the motto is once again “youth research”. At 23 years and 30 days, the Bullen starting eleven was the youngest on the first matchday. Once again, the Swiss Noah Okafor proved his Champions League qualities. Okafor scored four times in his last five appearances in the top flight.

In terms of personnel, Salzburg has to deal with a few absences, especially on the defensive side. The back four will by no means be at its best. The nominal left-back Bernardo will (have to) play in the centre of defence again. But already against Milan, Salzburg showed that they are defensively prepared for the high level in the top division.

Between Chelsea and Red Bull Salzburg, the bet on the double chance X2 is certainly associated with risk, but also the bet Salzburg +1.5 still provides exciting betting odds. A high Bull defeat in the English capital is not to be expected.

Predicted line-up of Red Bull Salzburg:
Köhn – Ulmer, Pavlovic, Bernardo, Dedic – Capaldo, Seiwald, Kjaergaard – Kameri – Okafor, Fernando

Last matches played by Red Bull Salzburg:

Bundesliga
10/09/2022 – Ried 0 – 3 RB Salzburg

Champions League Grp. E
07/09/2022 – RB Salzburg 1 – 1 AC Milan

Bundesliga
03/09/2022 – RB Salzburg 2 – 0 WSG Tirol

Cup
31/08/2022 – Union Gurten 0 – 3 RB Salzburg

Bundesliga
27/08/2022 – Austria Lustenau 0 – 6 RB Salzburg

Chelsea – Red Bull Salzburg Direct comparison / H2H balance

The direct comparison between the two teams is quickly told, as never before have the Blues and the Bulls faced each other. For the team from London it is even the first match against an Austrian team since 1994 (defeat against Austria Wien). Salzburg’s record against English teams is not necessarily a ray of hope for the difficult task. In five of the six games the Bullen conceded a defeat (one draw, against Blackburn in 2006).

Chelsea – Red Bull Salzburg Tip

The Chelsea defeat in Zagreb did not necessarily cause Salzburg to jump for joy either. The unexpected three points for the Croatian serial champions increase the danger of finishing the group in fourth place and thus no longer being represented internationally after the 2022 World Cup.

However, Salzburg showed a strong performance in the opening game and can arrive at Stamford Bridge with a broad chest. The Bulls have nothing to lose, but the pressure on Chelsea is undeniable. A 1.38 odds offered between Chelsea and Red Bull Salzburg on a home win is definitely too small.

Year after year, Salzburg are believed to have lost too much quality, but the team can still convince with strong results time and again. The team from the city of Mozart will not lack confidence despite some absences, the performances are absolutely satisfactory.

Moderate four unit bets between Chelsea and Red Bull Salzburg on the double chance X2 prediction are justified. The chances of winning a point are definitely higher than the betting odds of up to 3.10 would suggest. The less risky option is to bet on Salzburg +1.5.