Will the Blancos leave nothing to chance in London?
Last week, Real Madrid pushed the door to the Champions League semifinals wide open with a 2-0 win over Chelsea. The Blancos could sweep the Londoners out of the competition for the second year in a row, once again relying on the qualities of Karim Benzema.
The Frenchman not only scored in the first leg, but his last eleven Champions League goals have all come against English teams – including five goals against Chelsea alone. Accordingly, it’s interesting to bet on the 35-year-old scoring again at Chelsea against Real Madrid.
There is a lot to be said for the Madrilenians reaching the semifinals again, especially since the Blues’ most recent change of coach has not brought any change for the better. Since Frank Lampard has been back in charge, there have been three defeats from three competitive games. Accordingly, Chelsea’s prediction against Real Madrid is that the Blancos will progress, having advanced to the next round on 18 of 19 occasions when they have won the first leg by at least a two-goal margin.
Chelsea, on the other hand, could now become the third club in Champions League history to lose the first leg in both the round of 16 and quarterfinals of the knockout stage but still reach the next round. So far, only Monaco (2004) and AS Roma (2018) had managed this feat. In fact, in five of the last seven instances, the Londoners managed to turn around an away defeat from the first leg with a home win.
This time, however, Londoners with a complete lack of form clash with one of the best teams in Europe, who also possess enormous defensive qualities.
Chelsea – statistics & current form
In the hope of somehow still saving the 2022/23 season, those responsible at Chelsea FC recently still put the only last fall as successor to Thomas Tuchel installed coach Graham Potter in front of the door. The club’s icon Frank Lampard is now expected to pull the chestnuts out of the fire until the end of the season.
So far, however, this change of coach has not only failed to have an effect, but the new change has actually completely backfired. All three competitive games under the 44-year-old have been lost.
Comeback qualities at Stamford Bridge
In the Premier League, defeats to Wolverhampton (0:1) and Brighton (1:2) have finally dashed hopes of European competition with the club now eleven points behind sixth place. And in the top flight, the Blues have their backs to the wall after a 2-0 defeat to Real Madrid.
While there is a fundamental comeback quality in Chelsea’s favor at Stamford Bridge. In five of the last seven instances of losing the first leg away from home in a Champions League knockout round, the Londoners advanced with a home win in the second leg. However, considering that the Pensioners are winless in six competitive matches (two draws, four defeats), betting on a win in the second leg at Chelsea against Real Madrid is extremely risky.
Only one goal scored in last five competitive matches
While the strong Champions League home record may speak for Chelsea. After all, eight of the last ten Champions League home games at Stamford Bridge have been won (one draw, one defeat). That one defeat, however, was at the hands of today’s guests Real Madrid – a 1:3 loss in the quarterfinals a year ago.
Another argument against an English remontada is the completely anemic offense, which has only managed a single goal in the last five competitive games. The Pensioners also have just 30 goals on record in 30 Premier League games overall.
Last Chelsea games:
Premier League
- 15/04/2023 – Chelsea FC 1 – 2 Brighton
Champions League Final
- 13/04/2023 – Real Madrid 2 – 0 Chelsea FC
Premier League
- 08/04/2023 – Wolverhampton 1 – 0 Chelsea FC
- 05/04/2023 – Chelsea FC 0 – 0 Liverpool FC
- 01/04/2023 – Chelsea FC 0 – 2 Aston Villa
Real Madrid – statistics & current form
Real Madrid, as Champions League record winners, have a golden touch in this competition, in which the Blancos recorded their 14th overall victory just last summer. Then, too, the road to the final led via Stamford Bridge.
A two-goal difference in the first leg has usually been half the battle for the Merengues, who have only squandered a two-goal lead in the first leg on one occasion in 19 – in the 2003/04 semifinals against AS Monaco (1:3 in the second leg after a 4:2 home win).
Won nine of the last eleven Champions League matches
Real Madrid have won all of their last five knockout games, beating English clubs without exception. Karim Benzema once again stood out with eleven goals, and he could once again make the difference in the second leg. The Frenchman scored all three goals in the Blancos’ 3-1 away win at Stamford Bridge last time out.
The Galactics will travel to the capital of the United Kingdom with a correspondingly broad chest, especially since the white ballet has also won nine of the last eleven Champions League games (one draw, one defeat).
In four of the last five competitive matches with white vest
Accordingly, when it comes to Chelsea against Real Madrid, the odds are swinging in the direction of the Spanish record champions, who also succeeded in their dress rehearsal in La Liga at the weekend. Carlo Ancelotti’s team, with a number of regulars rested, easily won 2-0 away at Cádiz.
However, with the Blancos nine points behind Barcelona and unlikely to be in the championship race, the Champions League is the top priority for the royals, who are also excellent defenders. The Spanish side have gone four of their last five competitive games without conceding a goal.
Last matches of Real Madrid:
La Liga
- 16/04/2023 – Cadiz 0 – 2 Real Madrid
Champions League Final
- 13/04/2023 – Real Madrid 2 – 0 Chelsea FC
La Liga
- 09/04/2023 – Real Madrid 2 – 3 FC Villarreal
Copa del Rey
- 06/04/2023 – FC Barcelona 0 – 4 Real Madrid
La Liga
- 02/04/2023 – Real Madrid 6 – 0 Real Valladolid
Chelsea – Real Madrid Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 4 – 2 – 2
There have been eight competitive matches between the two teams so far and with four wins Chelsea leads the direct comparison. However, things haven’t gone too well for the Blues recently, who have already failed to reach the Champions League quarter-finals against the Blancos in the 2021/22 season and also lost their home match at Stamford Bridge 3-1 in that encounter.
Chelsea – Real Madrid Tip
With Chelsea against Real Madrid, the prediction clearly goes to the advancement of the Merengues, who would win their sixth knockout game in a row. Curiously, the six wins before that also all came against English clubs, which not only suit the club in general, but also Karim Benzema in particular. The Frenchman scored his last eleven Champions League goals all against Premier League representatives, scoring five times against Chelsea alone.
Accordingly, it’s a good bet that Karim Benzema will also score a goal at Stamford Bridge that could finally pull the plug on the Londoners and lift the Madrilenians into the semifinals.
