Do the Blues advance to the semi-finals against the understrength Magpies?

Manchester City are out, Arsenal are out, Tottenham and Aston Villa have also already been eliminated. Together with Liverpool, Newcastle United are therefore the only team from the Premier League’s top six that can still hope to win the EFL Cup, the English League Cup. However, the Magpies have drawn a tough draw for their quarter-final. Coach Eddie Howe’s side face a tough challenge at Stamford Bridge – at a club that is placing a particularly high value on domestic cup competitions this season

Because the Blues from London are on an international sabbatical and the championship race in the English top flight is expected to take place without the participation of Pochettino’s eleven, there is only a chance of silverware in the aforementioned cup competitions. We therefore expect two highly motivated teams who are determined to make it through to the final round. The bookmakers currently see the hosts in a pretty clear lead and are therefore offering odds of a maximum of 1.80.

for a home win after regular time in the Chelsea v Newcastle clash.

Incidentally, the teams last faced each other in the league four weeks ago. At St. James Park, Newcastle came out on top with a commanding 4:1 victory. However, the discrepancy between NUFC’s performances in front of their own fans and away from home has been huge recently. This is one of the reasons why the prediction between Chelsea and Newcastle seems to favor the capital club. However, having already eliminated two top clubs from the League Cup in Manchester United and Manchester City, there is no need to hide from the Blues, whose performances have fluctuated greatly

Chelsea – statistics & current form

Chelsea Football Club is becoming more and more of a gray mouse in the English top flight. The former Champions League winners are currently in tenth place. They are already seven points off their upcoming opponents and sixth-placed Newcastle United. There is therefore much to suggest that the Blues are unlikely to get a taste of the European Cup in 2024/25.

In view of the XXL upheaval, it was assumed that the adjustment phase and the relaunch under coach Mauricio Pochettino would take some time, but the Londoners would benefit from a point or two more. Time and again, the young team has suffered inexplicable lapses, only to strike back in impressive fashion just a few days later. Especially against the top teams in the league, the capital city club impressed in their own stadium

Chelsea were able to significantly stabilize their performances at home

The Pochettino team scored one point in each of their home games against championship contenders Manchester City (4:4) and Arsenal (2:2). The Blues did not lose at home to Liverpool at the start of the season either (1-1). The Londoners have also picked up seven points out of a possible nine from their last three matches at Stamford Bridge. Brighton were brought to their knees with a 3-2 win, while bottom side Sheffield were also without a chance against a furious Chelsea side (0-2) at the weekend. These pleasing performances in front of a home crowd, coupled with the preference for top games, serve as arguments to justify the odds on a home win between Chelsea and Newcastle.

Furthermore, it should be taken into account that “The Pensioners” will be much more rested going into Tuesday night’s knockout match. With no international duties to contend with, the Blues will be fully focused on the EFL Cup and the chance to win a domestic title for the first time since 2018. Incidentally, Chelsea last lifted the EFL Cup in 2015, when three clubs – Wimbledon, Brighton and Blackburn – were eliminated in their own stadium. In contrast to these rather low-scoring matches, however, there will now be much more spectacle and a potentially wild back-and-forth. Similar to the comparable PL matches against the best club teams from the island. Incidentally, the Blues are not currently one of them – despite their lavish purse and a bloated squad.

Chelsea’s expected line-up:
Petrovic; Gusto, Disasi, Badiashile, Maatsen; Caicedo, Fernandez; Sterling, Gallagher, Palmer; Broja

Newcastle – Statistics & current form

You can feel sorry for Newcastle United Football Club these weeks. Last year’s fourth-placed team from the north-east of the country had progression in the UEFA Champions League in their own hands and, thanks to Paris St. Germain’s draw in Dortmund, “only” needed a home win against Milan to secure a ticket to the last 16 in the Group of Death. Howe’s team even led 1:0, had the match completely under control for long stretches and ultimately lost 2:1. Not only did they lose their place in the top flight for the winter, but also their place in the Europa League.

The Magpies must now make amends and end the 2023 soccer year on a positive note. A semi-final appearance in the EFL Cup would certainly taste particularly good to the Black & Whites. In principle, it does not seem unrealistic to predict that Chelsea and Newcastle will advance. After all, the four-time English soccer champions reached the final of this cup back in 2022/23, but lost narrowly to Manchester United. They finally got their revenge this season. Both Manchester United and Manchester City have already knocked Newcastle out of the Carabao Cup in recent months

Newcastle’s personnel worries are taking on inhuman proportions

It is all the more surprising that the Chelsea vs Newcastle odds are so clearly in the Blues’ favor. However, the main reason is obvious and relates to the continuing tight personnel situation in Eddie Howe’s team. With Anderson, Barnes, Manquillo, Murphy, Pope, Willock, Targett and the suspended Tonali, the coach is missing almost an entire squad. There are also question marks over the appearances of Trippier and Isak, while Lewis Hall is not allowed to play against his home club as a Chelsea loanee. Joelinton and Schär will also be unavailable due to injury compared to the 3-0 win.

With the Magpies already playing their sixth game of the month and some of their most frequent players on the pitch almost every three days for the last four weeks, it will be a Herculean task to survive at Stamford Bridge. To make matters worse, the most recent three away games at league level were all lost with a 2-0, 3-0 and 4-1 scoreline. The last away win in the Premier League dates back to September 2023. We still think the mentality monsters from the north-east of England can score a goal, but it will most likely not be enough to reach the semi-finals.

Predicted line-up for Newcastle:
Dubravka; Krafth, Lascelles, Botman, Burn; Miley, Guimaraes, Longstaff; Ritchie, Wilson, Almiron

Chelsea – Newcastle head-to-head / H2H record

The clubs first faced each other in the top flight of English soccer on November 25. Newcastle dominated at home and ultimately won 4-1, but Chelsea have not been particularly good for the Magpies in their League Cup history. In five matches in the second most important cup competition on the island, the Blues won four times in regulation time. Newcastle only won once. On Tuesday evening, however, the old favourites will play no part and the cards will be reshuffled ahead of the knockout game. If there is no winner after 90 minutes, the game will go straight to penalties

Chelsea – Newcastle tip

It’s curious that four weeks after Newcastle beat Chelsea 4-1 in the league, the odds are suddenly swinging clearly in the Blues’ favor. Ultimately, only two fundamental things have changed since then. Firstly, the home advantage has changed. Secondly, the Magpies’ personnel situation has worsened considerably.

For this reason, among others, it seems justified that the odds on a home win between Chelsea and Newcastle have risen to just 1.80. Incidentally, this three-way bet can also be played at Tipwin:

In view of the rather risky omens, however, we are taking a little more of a gamble and trying our luck in the Chelsea v Newcastle quarter-final with a bet that the home side will reach the next round, whether after 90 minutes or in a penalty shoot-out, and that both teams will still score in regular time. A maximum odds of 2.67 is offered for the “Chelsea TQ and both score”. We select four units as the stake and conclude by pointing out that Pochettino’s team have recently performed well at home and have been particularly convincing against the league’s top teams. However, their defensive vulnerability never went unnoticed