Will Middlesbrough make it to the final?

The second leg of the EFL Cup semi-final between Chelsea and Middlesbrough will take place on Tuesday evening. The roles in this clash are quite clear beforehand, because while the home side are one of the most valuable teams in the world, the visitors are merely a mid-table team, even in England’s second tier. For this reason, the bookmakers’ odds between Chelsea and Middlesbrough clearly favor a win for the home team

However, we should not underestimate the visiting team, as “Boro” won the first leg against Chelsea 1-0. However, Michael Carrick’s team were clearly inferior in terms of play and therefore came away as lucky winners. It would therefore be a major surprise if the “Teessiders” were to prevail over two games. Therefore, the odds of the bookmakers also speak against a victory for the away team between Chelsea and Middlesbrough

We recommend betting on a goal from England youngster Cole Palmer between Chelsea and Middlesbrough. The attacking midfielder has been one of the Blues’ key players in recent weeks, scoring five goals in his last nine competitive games. In addition, the attacker is currently the home side’s penalty taker, which naturally increases the likelihood of a goal.

The EFL Cup semi-final kicks off at 21:00 on Tuesday at Stamford Bridge in London. The match can be watched live and in full on Sky or Wow.

Chelsea – statistics & current form

Chelsea only entered the competition in the second round as a first division team and have therefore played one less cup game than Middlesbrough. The Blues kicked off their cup campaign with a somewhat laborious 2-1 win over fourth-division side AFC Wimbledon, but lacked any real dominance. Mauricio Pochettino’s team then went on to beat Brighton, Blackburn Rovers and Newcastle United, beating some big-name opponents in the process. The goal can therefore only be the title.

The Blues finished the previous season in twelfth place, picking up just 44 points from 38 games and thus missing out on international business. Things are not necessarily looking any better this season, as Chelsea are currently only in ninth place with 31 points from 21 games. The home side will therefore probably miss out on the Champions League again this year. Nevertheless, Mauricio Pochettino’s team can still salvage the current season, as the gap to the international places is currently only four points

Solid home record

At the start of the season, the home side struggled at home and lost three of their first eight home games. The two defeats against Nottingham Forest (0:1) and Brentford (0:2) in particular were surprising and absolutely avoidable. However, the Blues have been unbeaten at Stamford Bridge since November 1, 2023 and have only conceded four points in that time. Anything other than a win against Middlesbrough would therefore be a big surprise.

With 45 goals in 27 games in all competitions, the Blues’ offense has done a very good job so far. In addition, Mauricio Pochettino’s side have only failed to score six times this season. Conversely, this means that the home side have found the back of the net in 78% of their games and have therefore been difficult to stop. Cola Palmer (9 goals), Nicolas Jackson (8 goals) and Raheem Sterling (7 goals) stood out in particular

Problems in defense

While the home side repeatedly showed good soccer in attack, they were rarely convincing in defense. It is therefore no wonder that Chelsea have conceded 34 goals in 27 competitive matches and have only kept a clean sheet eight times. The Blues are simply too vulnerable, especially when compared to the top teams in the Premier League. Mauricio Pochettino’s side have been much better at home, however, keeping a clean sheet in six of their 16 home games.

Predicted Chelsea line-up:
Petrovic – Gusto, Disasi, Silva, Colwill – Caicedo, Fernandez, Palmer, Gallagher, Sterling – Broja

Middlesbrough – Statistics & current form

For Middlesbrough, the journey began in the first round of the competition with the encounter against Huddersfield FC. There, Michael Carrick’s team prevailed 3:2 and progressed to the next round. The visitors went on to beat Bolton, Bradford, Exeter and Port Vale, making them fairly easy opponents. Chelsea FC are actually the first team to play in a higher league than Boro this cup season.

With eleven wins from 19 away games, Michael Carrick’s team can be absolutely satisfied. The visiting team scored 41 goals (⌀ 2.16) and only failed to score twice. This means that the visitors scored in 89% of their away games. On the other hand, Boro have also conceded 31 goals away from home and only managed to keep a clean sheet on three occasions. So there are signs of goals ahead of this match

Lucky hand

Morgan Rogers moved from Manchester City U21s to Middlesbrough in the summer of 2023 and made an immediate impact. The English winger has already scored six goals this season and set up a further nine. This makes the 21-year-old attacking player Boro’s top scorer and therefore also one of the key players. The youngster is currently said to be on Aston Villa’s list. It is therefore quite conceivable that the Englishman will leave the club after just one year.

With 57 goals in 35 competitive matches (⌀1.63), the visiting team is surprisingly strong in attack. This is not so much due to the individual class of a single player, but rather to the good width. “Boro” currently has eleven players in the squad who have scored at least five points this season. In addition, Michael Carrick’s side have only failed to score seven times and have found the back of the net in 80% of their matches

Middlesbrough are too vulnerable

The visitors have conceded 47 goals in 35 games this season and have always struggled in defense. It is therefore no wonder that the “Teessiders” have only kept a clean sheet nine times this season and have conceded at least one goal in 74% of their games. For this reason alone, the chances against Chelsea FC’s good offense are not particularly good.

Predicted Middlesbrough line-up:
Glover – Jones, van den Berg, Fry, Engel – Barlaser, Howson, Crooks, Hackney, Rogers – Greenwood

Chelsea – Middlesbrough head-to-head / H2H record

The direct comparison between the two teams naturally goes to the home side. Chelsea have won 55 matches against Middlesbrough, while 29 games have ended in a draw and the visitors have only won 30. Only recently, however, Boro defeated Chelsea FC 1-0 to break a run of nine consecutive defeats. However, another surprise is unlikely in the second leg, which is why our prediction between Chelsea and Middlesbrough is also in favor of the hosts

Chelsea – Middlesbrough betting tip

We recommend a win for the hosts in connection with over 2.5 goals in the game between Chelsea and Middlesbrough. Especially in their own stadium, the Blues should be able to win this game and reach the final of the EFL Cup. In addition, we expect a high-scoring game, as Boro have scored 104 goals in 35 competitive games, or 2.97 goals per game. We can therefore well imagine that this match will end 2:1 or 3:1

Alternatively, we recommend the odds on “both teams to score – yes” between Chelsea and Middlesbrough. The home side are simply much better in terms of play, created a number of great chances in the first leg and should therefore also find the way into the goal against the second division team’s defense. On the other hand, “Boro” are very efficient and have scored at least one goal in 80% of their competitive matches