Is the next draw already pre-programmed?

The time has finally come! The new Premier League season is just around the corner and already has a real treat in store on the first matchday. In the top match of the week on Sunday afternoon, two clubs look back on a disappointing last season and have accordingly set their sights high for the upcoming season.

We are talking about Chelsea and Liverpool. Predicting the outcome of the match is extremely complicated in the run-up to this classic, especially as the most recent six inter-competitive matches have all ended in draws.

Four times in a row the ambitious clubs, who see themselves at least among the top four in the Premier League, have gone goalless. There are indications that at least this curse can be broken at the weekend and the fans at Stamford Bridge will get to see a much higher-scoring match.

Chelsea – Statistics & current form

Place twelve, eleven wins from 38 games and only 38 goals scored. That was the Chelsea Football Club’s tally last season. Without doubt, the Blues were the biggest disappointment of all the top teams. The disastrous year on balance also brought consequences. From a sporting point of view, the Londoners will not be allowed to play on the international stage for the first time in many years. In addition, a change in personnel has been initiated.

First and foremost, the bloated squad was thinned out. Nearly 15 players left the club, among them deserving performers such as Kai Havertz, Mason Mount, Mateo Kovavic, Kalidou Koulibaly and Edouard Mendy. In return, six new signings have been made so far. Nicolas Jackson, Christopher Nkunku and Axel Disasi are certainly the most notable. However, Nkunku, who came from Leipzig, will not be available for the next few months due to an injury.

Still a lot of question marks at Stamford Bridge

There has been another change on the coaching bench. Mauricio Pochettino has taken over from Frank Lampard and is expected to lead the Blues back to their former glory. However, at least his debut on Sunday afternoon is not under a particularly good star. The last ten Premier League coaches to make their debut at their new club against Liverpool FC have failed to do so victoriously.

On the other hand, there is another hopeful statistic: in the history of the Premier League, no club has celebrated more victories on the first matchday than Chelsea Football Club (20). Pochettino himself, by the way, also looks back on a decent record on opening matchdays. The Argentine has won five of his first seven league matches at the start of a new season with his former clubs.

Despite the facts and figures listed, it is very difficult to classify the true performance of the Londoners. The preparation went relatively well with victories against Brighton (4:3) and Fulham (2:0), among others, but it remains to be seen what conclusions will be drawn after the first competitive match. Due to the many eventualities, we refrain from making a prediction on the three-way market between Chelsea and Liverpool and are instead in good spirits that the home side have left their offensive harmlessness behind them over the summer break and will provide more spectacle again from now on.

Predicted Chelsea line-up:

Chelsea FC (Expected line-up) 4-2-3-1

Liverpool – Statistics & current form

If we are talking about a disappointment of last year’s season at Chelsea FC, Liverpool Football Club is virtually to be mentioned in the same breath. Although Jürgen Klopp’s team managed to get into the Europa League thanks to a good final spurt, they failed to qualify for the UEFA Champions League. As a result, the final analysis in the Beatles’ city was more detailed. The result was that the team wanted to reorganise its personnel in a few positions.

The centre of midfield in particular was identified as a weak point. Captain Jordan Henderson was given a free ride when he moved to Saudi Arabia, and Fabinho, who has been a very solid hoover for years, has also turned his back on the traditional club. With Szoboszlai and MacAllister, two new hopefuls have been signed so far. In addition, the transfer of Moises Caicedo is still in the offing in the short term.

However, because the bottom line is that a relatively well-rehearsed team is going into the season that simply sold itself short in 2022/23, but under normal circumstances has much more potential and also showed this more regularly in the final phase of the last season with eleven unbeaten Premier League games in a row, we would tend to put the odds on a good result in favour of the visiting team before the Chelsea vs Liverpool clash.

Liverpool still unbeaten in openers under Klopp

It should also be noted that the Reds have also usually started well in recent years. Looking back at the past ten Premier League seasons, LFC have never lost their opening game. Eight victories have been matched by two draws. 2012/13 was the last time Brendan Rodgers inflicted a defeat on matchday one.

Mo Salah could become another pawn. Since the Egyptian has been wearing the Reds jersey, he has always scored at least one goal in all six of the opening games. In total, the right-winger has even scored eight goals in said six games on the first PL matchday. If you want to bet on Salah to score again on Sunday, you can get attractive odds of 2.62 on the Bet365 app ahead of the Chelsea vs Liverpool clash.

Predicted Liverpool line-up:

Liverpool FC (Expected line-up) 4-3-3

Chelsea – Liverpool Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

We have already addressed the recent trend in this clash between two long-time rivals in the introduction. Six matches in a row have ended in a draw, and on four recent occasions not even a single goal has been scored.

Historically, LFC have a relatively clear lead with 70 wins in the English top flight. In the past ten Premier League encounters, the Reds have only lost once. 2018 was the last time the Blues won a league home game against Jürgen Klopp’s men.

Chelsea – Liverpool Tip

The anticipation for the start of the season in the motherland of football is huge. The match planners have also ensured that there will be a very interesting and electrifying clash on the very first matchday. According to the betting odds, Chelsea are even being treated as underdogs at home against Liverpool. On the three-way market, high odds of 2.90 are offered on a home win.

This is the bookmakers’ reaction to the Blues’ poor season and the fact that they have not won a Premier League home game against LFC since 2018. Just one win in the most recent ten league encounters against the Klopp team further underpins the assessment. Moreover, after various changes in the squad as well as the coaching change, there are of course still many unanswered questions at the capital club, which were far from being answered after a solid preparation.

Since we find it difficult to place a bet on the outcome of the match with regard to the statistics as well as the impressions from the test matches, we tend to bet on at least three goals being scored in regular time between Chelsea and Liverpool. For the over 2.5, a reasonable 1.70 is offered, which we would play with seven units at Betano.