The next low point for the struggling Blues?
Chelsea FC have lost their last three competitive games without scoring a single goal and are in a tangible crisis. Not only are the Blues facing elimination in the Champions League round of 16 against Borussia Dortmund, but the Londoners are also sinking into irrelevance in the Premier League. If Chelsea’s home win against Leeds does not go the Pensioners’ way, it could also cost ticked-off manager Graham Potter his job.
Leeds United have just had a change of manager, with the Whites under Javi Gracia directly winning the important basement duel against Southampton 1-0, with which the relegation-threatened club climbed back above the line. It is therefore interesting to predict that Chelsea’s coaching change will also have a positive effect at Stamford Bridge against Leeds.
Given that Chelsea have won just two of their last 15 Premier League games (six draws, seven defeats) and have suffered three consecutive defeats without scoring, there is always a lot of value in betting against the Blues at the moment. But the fact that Leeds are now coming to Stamford Bridge with new-found confidence makes the underdog bet even more interesting.
Moreover, the Whites already beat Chelsea 3-0 in the first leg, which is why we are taking the supposed risk and betting on Leeds to win the away match.
Chelsea – Statistics & current form
It was not until the summer of 2021 that Chelsea secured overall victory in the UEFA Champions League for the second time in the club’s history. Thomas Tuchel was the celebrated man and the Blues were suddenly a candidate to play a role in the fight for the championship in the Premier League again.
But then the Pensioners gradually sank into chaos in the course of the sale of the club. The new owner Todd Boehly pumped the equivalent of more than 600 million euros in transfer fees alone into the squad in the last two transfer phases, with numerous new arrivals being given long contracts, especially in the winter.
Only two wins in the last 15 league games
However, these measures did not bear fruit, nor did the change of coach. The Londoners won their first three league games under Graham Potter. In the subsequent 15 league games under the former Brighton coach, however, only two further victories were added (six draws, seven defeats).
Currently, the Blues have been without another treble for five league games in a row (three draws, two defeats), which means that the first relegation spot is now closer to the capitals than the UEFA Champions League qualification spot they are aiming for.
Offensive tamer than at any time in 29 years
The Blues’ offensive engine faltered in particular, with just 23 goals from 24 league games, their weakest offensive showing in 29 years (22 goals in 1993/94). In the last nine league games alone, the Pensioners have scored just four goals in total, with none of those games seeing more than one goal scored per game.
Given that their last home game in the Premier League so far was a 1-0 defeat to relegation-threatened Southampton, it seems all the more incomprehensible that the odds on Chelsea against Leeds should be so clearly stacked against the Londoners, who already lost the first leg 3-0 against the Whites.
Last Chelsea games:
Premier League
26/02/2023 – Tottenham 2 – 0 Chelsea FC
18/02/2023 – Chelsea FC 0 – 1 Southampton
Champions League Final
16/02/2023 – Borussia Dortmund 1 – 0 Chelsea FC
Premier League
11/02/2023 – West Ham 1 – 1 FC Chelsea
04/02/2023 – Chelsea FC 0 – 0 Fulham
Leeds – Statistics & current form
Leeds United have a scintillating history. The team from West Yorkshire has won the national championship three times, secured the FA Cup in 1972 and reached the final of both the European Champion Clubs’ Cup and the European Cup Winners’ Cup.
Currently, however, the Whites are going through difficult times. Having only played in the second and third divisions between 2004 and 2020, LUFC are now facing relegation from the Premier League for the third consecutive year.
Won only one of the twelve Premier League away games
The main reason for the acute danger of relegation is the poor away record. The Whites have won only one of the twelve Premier League away games so far in the 2022/23 season (three draws, eight defeats), collecting just six of a possible 36 points away from home.
This was one of the reasons why the managers made further adjustments to the coaching staff, which promptly paid off. After ten consecutive league games without a win (four draws, six defeats), the West Yorkshire side secured an important 1-0 home win over Southampton in their first competitive game under Javi Gracia.
Failed to score in twelve of last 31 Premier League away games
With that, LUFC are now back above the line and would love to go one better against the struggling Blues. If Chelsea are tipped to win away to Leeds, it would be a big step towards staying in the league in a very tight division.
For this to happen, however, Javi Gracia must first and foremost press the right buttons on the offensive. The Whites have failed to score in 12 of their last 31 Premier League away games, a tally topped only by Everton (13) and West Ham (14)…
Last games played by Leeds:
FA Cup
01/03/2023 – Fulham 2 – 0 Leeds
Premier League
25/02/2023 – Leeds 1 – 0 Southampton
18/02/2023 – Everton 1 – 0 Leeds
12/02/2023 – Leeds 0 – 2 Manchester United
09/02/2023 – Manchester United 2 – 2 Leeds
Chelsea – Leeds Direct Comparison / H2H Record
Head to head: 37 – 30 – 40
There have been a total of 107 meetings between the two sides so far and Leeds United lead the head-to-head comparison with 40 wins. The Whites also won the first leg 3-0 last August, but have lost all of their last five Premier League visits to Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea – Leeds Tip
When it comes to Chelsea against Leeds, our prediction is shaped by the Blues’ poor form. The Londoners have lost all of their last three competitive games without scoring – including a 1-0 home defeat to bottom side Southampton. In total, Chelsea have scored just four goals in their last nine league games. Meanwhile, Leeds, who won the first leg 3-0 against the Pensioners, have seen their recent managerial changes pay off. With a 1-0 win over Southampton, LUFC climbed back above the line.
Surely it’s a big gamble. But because the odds are right on Chelsea against Leeds and promise a great ratio of risk, probability of occurrence and possibility of winning, the ingredients for an interesting underdog bet are definitely there, especially as it is not very profitable to bet on the in-form Blues these days anyway.
