Will Brighton also surprise at Stamford Bridge?
Both Chelsea and Brighton had a very successful Boxing Day. While the Blues were able to record a three-point win at Aston Villa after only one victory from four games, the Seagulls also kept the upper hand at home against promoted Brentford. In Wednesday night’s head-to-head clash, both teams will be looking to confirm the positive impressions of Christmas and celebrate a successful end to the year.
If we look at the bookmakers’ odds before the Chelsea vs Brighton game, it comes as something of a surprise that a relatively high 1.46 is being offered for a home win at the top. After all, the reigning Champions League winners and third in the Premier League table will meet a team that only narrowly avoided relegation last year and is currently far behind the Londoners in the standings.
At the same time, however, it must be remembered that coach Graham Potter’s visitors have been very consistent away from home this season. Hove Albion have only suffered one defeat away from home. In conjunction with the capital club’s recent disappointing performances and the enormous strain that the Tuchel team has had to take on in recent days, a prediction on the isolated home victory between Chelsea and Brighton is not a value betting option for us.
Chelsea – Statistics & current form
For Chelsea Football Club, relief was the order of the day last Sunday. After the Blues unexpectedly faltered and drew twice in a row against Everton and Wolverhampton, they recorded a 3-1 win at Aston Villa.
However, coach Thomas Tuchel’s team was once again not completely convincing. Two penalty goals by Jorginho and a header by Romelu Lukaku, who came on as a half-time substitute, ensured the important three points despite being 1-0 down at one stage. Their brief slump, moreover, reflected in just two wins from their past six Premier League matches and a disappointing 3-3 draw with Zenit in the Champions League, came to a temporary end.
Will Chelsea keep it clean at home again?
It is all the more important from the capital club’s point of view that they get back to winning ways at home to Brighton on Wednesday night. Especially in view of the fact that the next games on the agenda are against Liverpool, Manchester City and Tottenham. The chances of a home win are absolutely intact, especially as the Blues have only lost the last match of a calendar year once in the past 18 Premier League seasons (12-5-1).
The reason why we do not recommend a home win between Chelsea and Brighton is that the Londoners have not really looked solid defensively lately. In the last four Premier League home games alone, they conceded five goals. It is interesting to note, however, that only one of these five goals was scored in the first 45 minutes. In general, there has been a maximum of one goal in the first half in ten of the 19 games played, which is why it is worth considering a corresponding betting market.
Definitely not available will be Thiago Silva and N’golo Kanté, who were injured on Boxing Day. Ben Chilwell is also still suffering from an injury. The two German internationals Kai Havertz and Timo Werner, meanwhile, are still struggling with the after-effects of their infections and are therefore questionable. Lukaku and Kovacic are candidates for the starting eleven.
Predicted Chelsea line-up:
Mendy; Azpilicueta, Christensen, Rudiger; James, Jorginho, Kovacic, Alonso; Ziyech, Mount; Lukaku
Last matches played by Chelsea:
Premier League
12/26 2021 – Aston Villa 1 – 3 Chelsea London
Carabao Cup
12/22 2021 – Brentford 0 – 2 Chelsea London
Premier League
12/19 2021 – Wolverhampton 0 – 0 Chelsea London
12/16 2021 – Chelsea London 1 – 1 Everton
12/11 2021 – Chelsea London 3 – 2 Leeds
Brighton – Statistics & current form
Brighton & Hove Albion can be pretty happy with the way the season has gone so far. After finishing 16th last year, the Seagulls are currently in a solid ninth place and also have two catch-up games up their sleeve. Should they win these at Manchester United and at home against Tottenham, the blue and whites could even (temporarily) hope for their first European Cup appearance in 2022/23.
Graham Potter, who once caused a sensation as a coach in Sweden with Östersund and then arrived in the county of East Sussex via Swansea City, has managed to form a collective that is feared on the island after more than two years in charge. This is particularly due to the very uncomfortable style of play that the south-east Englishmen have internalised.
Brighton mostly minimalist on the road
In 17 games involving the Seagulls, only 33 goals have been scored this season – an average of less than two per encounter. Only Burnley, Norwich and Wolverhampton have scored less often than the Potter eleven. In terms of goals conceded, only the top 3 plus Wolves are ahead of Hove Albion. Another interesting fact is that in only four games this season would a bet on more than one goal in the first half have been crowned with success. Accordingly, the odds on a fairly low-scoring first half also promise exciting value between Chelsea and Brighton.
The impressive away record of Coach Potter’s team shows how difficult they are to beat away from home. Only one of eight games in opposing stadiums was lost this season.
The regular trips to London haven’t gone so badly either. Three defeats in 13 matches in the capital are a passable figure, which strengthens our belief that we should not predict a home draw in the Chelsea v Brighton clash. Leandro Trossard, Jeremy Sarmiento, Lewis Dunk and Steven Alzate are definitely out. Joel Veltman is still a question mark behind.
Predicted Brighton line-up:
Sanchez; Lamptey, Webster, Burn, Cucurella; Bissouma, Lallana, Mwepu; Mac Allister; Welbeck, Maupay
Last matches played by Brighton:
Premier League
12/26 2021 – Brighton 2 – 0 Brentford
12/15 2021 – Brighton 0 – 1 Wolverhampton
12/04 2021 – Southampton 1 – 1 Brighton
12/01 2021 – West Ham 1 – 1 Brighton
11/27 2021 – Brighton 0 – 0 Leeds
Chelsea – Brighton Direct Comparison / H2H Record
Brighton have failed to win anything against Chelsea in league matches so far. Twelve attempts were made by the Seagulls, in ten cases they left the pitch as losers. In the remaining two encounters, the points were shared. In the country’s highest division, the Blues have never trailed against Brighton. In none of the six away games at Stamford Bridge did the south-easterners manage to score a single goal.
Chelsea – Brighton Tip
On Wednesday evening, Chelsea and Brighton will face each other in the last competitive match of the 2021 calendar year for both teams, starting at 20:30. Maximum betting odds of 1.46 on a home win underline the Blues’ role as favourites, who have also never lost a league match against their upcoming opponents.
Nevertheless, the task could be more complicated than expected from the Tuchel eleven’s point of view. After all, the Seagulls not only have one of the best defences in the Premier League, but have also lost only one away match so far this season. Given these stats, one should be cautious about betting on a (higher) home win.
Instead, we expect the Potter team to place great emphasis on standing firm at the back and keeping the score level, especially in the first half. In the last few games, the Londoners have already found it extremely difficult to get a massive defence into trouble. The same would not surprise us on Wednesday night. On balance, however, we do not believe in a sensational coup in the form of an away win – but a draw should not be categorically ruled out.
We have therefore decided to place a combined bet between Chelsea and Brighton that Chelsea will not lose and that a maximum of one goal will be scored in the first half. For the 1X with the addition “Under 1.5 (1st half), we find a reasonable 1.57 at Bet365, which is worth a stake of eight units for us.
