Will the Blues’ negative trend be prolonged?
For English football fans, the current season has been a real culture shock, with no league games for six weeks in the middle of the season. With seven games, the motherland of football is waking up from the World Cup break.
The 17th matchday of the current season will then be completed on Tuesday and Wednesday with a total of three games. In the last appearance in 2022, Graham Potter hopes to reverse the trend and finally get back to cheering. In the clash between Chelsea and Bournemouth, betting odds of just over 1.30 are available on the home side.
At first glance, the very clear role as favourites for Borussia Dortmund’s opponents in the last 16 of the UEFA Champions League will come as no surprise. However, a closer look reveals that between Chelsea and Bournemouth, a prediction in the direction of the glaring underdog is entirely justified. The high after the Potter takeover has long since faded and the capital team has recently gone five consecutive league victories without a win. Promoted Bournemouth, on the other hand, halted their own negative trend before the World Cup break with a 3-0 win over Everton Football Club.
So the statistics don’t necessarily speak in favour of the home side, who are, however, rightly thrust into the role of favourites due to their clear quality advantages. The game kicks off at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday evening at 6:30 p.m.
Chelsea – Statistics & current form
The Tuchel sacking caused horror in many quarters, but Chelsea club officials felt their decision was vindicated after the first few weeks under successor Graham Potter. The former Brighton coach made a dream start, going unbeaten in his first nine games in charge (six wins, three draws). Potter, who has never coached a team of this calibre before, performed from the word go. But against his former club Brighton & Hove Albion, of all teams, Chelsea slid into a 1:4 debacle on 29 October.
The first defeat of Potter’s tenure was followed by two more defeats in the domestic championship before the start of the World Cup break, in the derby against Arsenal and against Newcastle United (both 0:1). In addition, despite a strong performance, the team was eliminated in the League Cup against Manchester City. A fourth league defeat in a row would be a novelty in the 21st century, as Chelsea last suffered such a defeat in the spring of 1998.
Without a win in five PL games
Potter not only lost the aura of invincibility, but recent results have created a tangible crisis for the ambitious club from the capital. With four defeats from the last five competitive games (only a Champions League win against Dinamo Zagreb) and five league games without a full win, the pressure has clearly increased. Chelsea are only in eighth place in the league and the minimum goal of the top flight is now eight points away.
There is at least a glimmer of hope in the fact that Chelsea have only lost their last league game of a year once in the last 19 years. That was against Aston Villa in 2011, otherwise there have been twelve wins and six draws. In terms of personnel, Graham Potter will still have to do without Ben Chilwell, N’Golo Kante and Armando Broja for the last appearance in 2022.
With Broja’s cruciate ligament rupture, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (three goals in four games against the Cherries) and Raheem Sterling (nine goals in nine games against Bournemouth) are likely to start in attack. It will also be exciting to see if Chelsea finally get to cheer in the first 45 minutes once again, as they have only scored six goals in the first period so far (third lowest this PL season).
Predicted Chelsea line-up:
Kepa Arrizabalaga – Koulibaly, Chalobah, Azpilicueta – Cucurella, Kovacic, Jorginho, Loftus-Cheek – Mount, Sterling – Aubameyang
Last matches played by Chelsea:
Friendly club matches
11/12/2022 – Chelsea FC 0 – 1 Aston Villa
Premier League
13/11/2022 – Newcastle 1 – 0 FC Chelsea
Carabao Cup
10/11/2022 – Manchester City 2 – 0 Chelsea FC
Premier League
06/11/2022 – Chelsea FC 0 – 1 Arsenal FC
Champions League Grp. E
03/11/2022 – Chelsea FC 2 – 1 Dinamo Zagreb
Bournemouth – Statistics & current form
AFC Bournemouth have one thing in common with Chelsea this season – they have already had one managerial sacking and after that personnel change, things initially started to look up. But similar to the Blues, the Cherries’ mood of optimism has faded. Nevertheless, interim coach Gary O’Neil has since been given a contract as head coach.
Two times the Toffees were put in their place
Before the World Cup break, Bournemouth were able to defeat the Toffees from Everton twice. A brilliant 4:1 victory in the English League Cup was followed only a few days later by the confirmation of this result and the Cherries also clearly defeated the Toffees in the league (3:0). With 16 points from 15 league games, the promoted team is now in 14th place in the table, three points ahead of the safety zone.
Gary O’Neil’s side have scored eight goals in their last three Premier League games. A significant improvement on the past weeks/months, as it previously took the club eleven league games to score eight times as well. Given this development in forward play, the odds on both teams scoring between Chelsea and Bournemouth appear highly interesting. Depending on the bookmaker, betting odds of 2.00 or slightly more are offered.
The fact that this bet is very interesting is also due to the fact that AFC Bournemouth has the weakest defence in the league this season. They have already conceded 32 goals. Negative values are set up in almost all areas. No other team has conceded more goals from headers (eight), corners (nine), penalties (five) or from a dead ball (ten). The Cherries defence also provides the forecast for a game with many goals between Chelsea and Bournemouth.
Predicted line-up of Bournemouth:
Travers – Zemura, Senesi, Stephens, Smith – Billing, Cook, Lerma, Tavernier – Solanke, Moore
Last matches played by Bournemouth:
Carabao Cup
21/12/2022 – Newcastle 1 – 0 Bournemouth
Premier League
12/11/2022 – Bournemouth 3 – 0 Everton
Carabao Cup
09/11/2022 – Bournemouth 4 – 1 Everton
Premier League
05/11/2022 – Leeds 4 – 3 Bournemouth
29/10/2022 – Bournemouth 2 – 3 Tottenham
Chelsea – Bournemouth Direct comparison / H2H record
On paper this duel seems to be a clear affair, but appearances are deceptive. The Blues from the capital do not necessarily have good memories of the underdog. In three of Chelsea’s last five home games against Bournemouth, betting on the Cherries to win was actually the right decision. Based on this, odds of well over 3.00 for the double chance X2 definitely have value to offer. After all, the underdogs are unbeaten in three Premier League games against the Blues (seven points).
Chelsea – Bournemouth Tip
An unequal duel in which the underdog has surprised very often in the recent past. In their last appearance of the year, the Cherries from Bournemouth can be expected to win a point at Stamford Bridge. In contrast to the Blues, Bournemouth already have a competitive match under their belt after the World Cup break, although this was a narrow 1-0 loss at Newcastle United in the League Cup. Defeats came with unusual frequency for the Potter eleven before the break and for the first time since 1998 the Blues are threatened with four league defeats in a row.
Qualitatively, there is no denying that Chelsea are the clear favourites in this game. However, the recent league results as well as the direct comparison makes for a value tip X2 between Chelsea and Bournemouth at odds up to a 3.30.
Our main tip is less risky and recommends goals on both sides. Odds of 2.00 also seem a bit too high. Bournemouth is always ready to concede goals anyway (worst defence in the league), but has recently improved its attack considerably. Six units are recommended for this bet
