Are the Blues taking advantage of Arsenal’s lack of form?

English football fans can’t complain about a lack of action this week, with numerous catch-up games on the schedule from Tuesday to Thursday. One of the absolute highlights is of course the London derby between Chelsea and Arsenal. According to the odds, the Blues go into this match as favourites. For a home win of the Tuchel eleven, just 1.92 is offered at the top.

Despite this, the role of favourites for the team that celebrated another FA Cup final appearance at the weekend with a 2-0 win over Crystal Palace is perfectly understandable, after all Kai Havertz and Co. are in much better shape. While the Blues have won three consecutive league games, the Gunners have lost three in a row.

Apart from that, the (still) reigning Champions League winners have the opportunity to finalise their first season double against their city rivals since 2015/2016 in front of their home crowd at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday evening. Having already won the first leg 2-0 at the Emirates Stadium, they will be looking to add a treble in front of their own fans which would consolidate third place for the time being.

Chelsea – Statistics & current form

Joys and sorrows have been very close together at Chelsea Football Club in recent weeks. Successful experiences and setbacks alternated regularly. The best example was the two quarter-final matches in the Champions League against Real Madrid. In the first leg, the defending champions lost 3-1 at home, only to find themselves 3-0 up at the Bernabeu a week later. However, because the royals scored two more goals, one of them in extra time, their elimination from the top flight was sealed after 120 minutes.

At national level, too, the Tuchel team recently turned out to be a surprise package. A 4-1 home defeat against Brentford was followed by a 6-0 away win at Southampton and the aforementioned 2-0 victory in the FA Cup semi-final against Crystal Palace. The bottom line, however, is that nine of the past eleven matches against English clubs have been victorious, which can definitely be used as an argument to make a prediction on Wednesday’s home win between Chelsea and Arsenal as well.

Will Chelsea find their home strength again?

Another aspect, which admittedly can be interpreted in two directions, relates to the fact that they have lost their last two home games at Stamford Bridge. For the previous two defeats, the Blues had let 27 competitive home games slip away. Also interesting: three consecutive defeats at home last occurred in November 1993! Chelsea have also not lost two home derbies in a row against London teams since 1999.

In our opinion, it is even conceivable to bet on the Chelsea vs. Arsenal clash that the third-placed team, who could almost extend their lead to fifth place if they win, will win the match without conceding a goal. The Blue and Whites have kept their clean sheet in eight of the last eleven matches at national level. Only Manchester City (20) and Liverpool (22) have conceded fewer goals than the capital club (23) over the entire season.

The German coach will have to do without Ben Chillwell and Callum Hudson-Odoi. Since last weekend, Mateo Kovacic has joined the ranks of the injured. Apart from that, all players are ready for action. Lukaku may even get another chance to start after he caused the Arsenal defence a lot of problems in the first leg and scored the first goal in the 2-0 win.

Predicted Chelsea line-up:
Mendy; James, Silva, Rudiger; Azpilicueta, Kante, Jorginho, Alonso; Mount, Werner; Lukaku

Last matches played by Chelsea:

FA Cup
17/04/2022 – Chelsea FC 2 – 0 Crystal Palace

Champions League Final
13/04/2022 – Real Madrid 2 – 3 Chelsea FC

Premier League
09/04/2022 – Southampton 0 – 6 FC Chelsea

Champions League Final
07/04/2022 – Chelsea FC 1 – 3 Real Madrid

Premier League
02/04/2022  Chelsea FC 1 – 4 Brentford

Arsenal – Statistics & Current form

It is well known that a young team is subject to fluctuations in performance over the course of an entire season. Arsenal Football Club have struggled with such a dip in form recently. Mikel Arteta’s talented side have not only lost their last three Premier League games in a row, but have also lost four of their last five matches in the English top flight.

With the exception of the 2-0 defeat against Liverpool, the defeats all came against teams that are (significantly) behind the Londoners in the standings. Last weekend, for example, they lost 1-0 at Southampton, the opponents Chelsea had outclassed 6-0 just a week earlier, also at St. Mary’s Stadium. The Champions League aspirants also failed to even come close to their own performance maximum at home against Brighton (1-2) and at Crystal Palace (0-3).

The Gunners spread little fear away from home

In view of this clearly downward pointing form curve, it would be associated with an enormous risk to place a tip on the guest in the Chelsea vs Arsenal derby. The fact that the former champions have lost their two most recent London city duels away from home is no encouragement for the upcoming clash at Stamford Bridge.

To make matters worse, the Cannoniers are in any case much stronger at home than away this season. Third place in the home table compares to eighth place in the away table. There have been just as many victories as defeats in opposing stadiums (seven each), and the goal difference is negative. No other top club conceded more goals away from home than Arteta’s team. In total, they have conceded 23 goals in 15 away games.

Although the Gunners are now unbeaten in eleven consecutive Premier League games during the week (Tuesday to Thursday) against their upcoming opponents, we think the odds on the home win between Chelsea and Arsenal are far more exciting. Partey and Tierney are definitely out. There is also a question mark over striker Lacazette’s involvement after he tested positive before the Saints match.

Predicted Arsenal line-up:
Ramsdale; Cedric, White, Gabriel, Tavares; Xhaka, Lokonga; Saka, Odegaard, Smith Rowe; Martinelli

Last matches played by Arsenal:

Premier League
16/04/2022 – Southampton 1 – 0 FC Arsenal

09/04/2022 – Arsenal FC 1 – 2 Brighton

05/04/2022 – Crystal Palace 3 – 0 Arsenal FC

19/03/2022 – Aston Villa 0 – 1 Arsenal FC

17/03/2022 – Arsenal FC 0 – 2 Liverpool FC

Chelsea – Arsenal Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

For exactly the 170th time, the two capital clubs face each other in England’s top division. Arsenal lead the direct comparison with 65 victories, Chelsea have come out on top 54 times and another 50 matches have ended in a draw.

However, the Blues won the first leg 2-0 this season and will be looking to win both Premier League matches against the Gunners in the same season for the first time since 2015/16. Incidentally, this is backed up by the interesting statistic that the Gunners have not won two consecutive Premier League away games at Stamford Bridge since 1997.

Chelsea – Arsenal Tip

While the hate duel between Liverpool and Manchester United will take place on Tuesday evening, the highly anticipated London derby between Chelsea and Arsenal will take place on Wednesday. Lower betting odds are offered on a home win for the Blues, who have recently won three matches in a row and gained a lot of self-confidence by reaching the FA Cup final at the weekend.

On the other hand, things have not been going well at all for the Gunners recently. In the Premier League alone, they have suffered four defeats in the past five matches. In addition, only two goals have been scored in this period. Against Thomas Tuchel’s famously strong defence, which has not conceded a goal in eight of the last eleven domestic matches, the stakes are correspondingly high for the visitors.

A further complicating factor is that Arteta’s side are not nearly as strong away from home as they are at home. They have lost their two most recent derbies away from home and have suffered seven of their eleven defeats this season at home.