Who will win this top duel?
Chelsea and Milan, two big names in European football, face each other in a direct duel in the Champions League. On the third matchday of the group stage, the first small preliminary decisions can already be made. The match is therefore very important.
In the run-up to the Chelsea vs. AC Milan match, the betting odds indicate a favourite role for the hosts. Sure, Chelsea have the slightly better and wider squad, but the Italian champions should never be underestimated.
Much will depend on whether Chelsea put in a better and more focused performance than they did at the weekend in their first league game under their new coach. Kick-off for this game at Stamford Bridge is on Wednesday at 9pm.
Chelsea – statistics & current form
The fact that Chelsea FC’s start to the season has not been ideal is most noticeable in the fact that there has already been a change of manager. Graham Potter succeeded Thomas Tuchel. And the new coach won his first game at the weekend with 2:1 at Crystal Palace. It was not a glamorous performance, not a gala. And yet there is a lot to take away, because the typical Potter football with lots of short passes and possession worked quite well.
Defensively, however, the Blues were shaky in many phases. That should not happen against AC Milan, because the Italians have more individual quality and are only waiting for mistakes. Control will therefore be the key factor for Chelsea to win the game. Chelsea have only won three of their last eight games, so there is still a lot to play for. The start to the group stage of the top flight has been particularly bitter.
The Blues failed to pick up a point away in Zagreb and only managed one point at home against Salzburg. The two teams you actually have to beat took something against Chelsea. The pressure is mounting, because a winless game against the Rossoneri threatens a very tricky second leg and, in the end, perhaps even elimination.
Chelsea must become even more efficient
Against Crystal Palace, it was efficiency that was not ideal. Chelsea had some good chances but took them late. If the balance improves and Chelsea prepare their own attacks better, we should see an increase. Italian opponents, meanwhile, are a pleasure to watch at Stamford Bridge, with the Blues losing only two of their 13 games against clubs from Italy.
However, Chelsea have lost two of their last four matches in the top flight. They have lost two of their last 21 games in the Champions League. So, to start a new series again, the offensive around Aubameyang has to deliver even better. Eleven goals in nine games in the league and the Champions League are a little too few to live up to their own expectations.
Based on the current omens before the Chelsea vs. AC Milan match, our prediction is that the Blues will not lose and that less than 3.5 goals will be scored.
Predicted Chelsea line-up:
Kepa – James, Fofana, Koulibaly, Cucurella – Jorginho, Kovacic, Mount – Havertz, Sterling, Aubameyang
Last matches played by Chelsea:
Premier League
01/10/2022 – Crystal Palace 1 – 2 FC Chelsea
Champions League Grp. E
15/09/2022 – Chelsea FC 1 – 1 RB Salzburg
06/09/2022 – Dinamo Zagreb 1 – 0 FC Chelsea
Premier League
03/09/2022 – Chelsea FC 2 – 1 West Ham
31/08/2022 – Southampton 2 – 1 Chelsea FC
AC Milan – Statistics & current form
AC Milan are playing a slightly better season when compared to Chelsea FC. The Rossoneri are in fourth place in Serie A and are three points behind the league leaders in Naples. In short, the situation is decent, everything is in order. At the weekend, there was a 3:1 away win at Empoli FC, which was only sealed shortly before the end. That should give us further self-confidence.
However, the Pioli team is not yet as strong as it was last season in all areas. Offensively, there could be more from the team, even if 16 goals from eight games are a solid basis. Nine goals conceded are also solid, but these figures are not enough to reach their own optimum. After all, there were four points from both games in the top division.
That is important because the last group phase, in 2021/22, was pretty messed up. AC Milan had only four points at the end of the six games. Away from home, the visitors often offer something internationally, playing to nil in only two of the last 17 games.
AC Milan: Just don’t risk too much
What speaks for the guests is the starting position in the group. For Chelsea a draw would be a disaster, for AC Milan no problem, because the home game against Chelsea follows and the Rossoneri are rated stronger at home than away. This is also clear from their performances in England, where the visitors have won only two of 20 games.
So Chelsea offer something at times, Milan are not always up to scratch defensively and especially not outstanding away from home. With this in mind, our value tip before the Chelsea vs. AC Milan match is that both teams will score.
Predicted line-up of AC Milan:
Tatarusanu – Calabria, Kalulu, Tomori, Hernandez – Bennacer, Tonali, Brahim, Saelemaekers, Rafael Leao – Giroud
Last matches played by AC Milan:
Serie A
02/10/2022 – Empoli 1 – 3 AC Milan
19/09/2022 – AC Milan 1 – 2 SSC Napoli
Champions League Grp. E
14/09/2022 – AC Milan 3 – 1 Dinamo Zagreb
Serie A
11/09/2022 – Sampdoria Genoa 1 – 2 AC Milan
Champions League Grp. E
07/09/2022 – RB Salzburg 1 – 1 AC Milan
Chelsea – AC Milan Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
The record between these two teams is even. Chelsea have one win under their belt, the same goes for the Rossoneri. Three other games played so far have ended in draws. The last time the two met was in 1999/2000, with a 0-0 and a 1-1 draw in the group stage.
Chelsea – AC Milan Tip
Chelsea go into the game as favourites with the bookmakers, but there are still a few things the Blues can do better. AC Milan look a shade more settled, but don’t have a good away record in England.
Because of all the omens, our tip before the Chelsea vs AC Milan match is that the hosts will not lose and will score less than 3.5 goals in this match.
