Nothing to gain for the soccer dwarf from Cantabria?
On Thursday evening, the Spanish autonomous region of Cantabria will host a real event of the century. For the first time, CD Cayon, the club from the municipality of Santa María de Cayón, has qualified for the 2nd round of the Copa del Rey. Here, the soccer dwarf now receives the 23-time winner of this competition. Accordingly, there is no alternative to betting on an away win for the Basques in Cayon against Athletic Bilbao
It should be noted, however, that “Los Leones” already had a remarkably difficult time in the last round. The Basques “only” managed a 2:1 away win at sixth-division side Rubí, which was more than enough to fulfill their duty. Nevertheless, this shaky performance is no indication that Cayon’s prediction that the fourth-division side from Cantabria will be able to upset the Basques against Athletic Bilbao is correct.
The gulf between the two opponents could not be greater. While Cayon have qualified for the Copa del Rey for only the third time in the club’s history, Athletic Bilbao have won the competition 23 times and are still the second most successful Spanish club in the cup – behind Barcelona (31) but ahead of Real Madrid (20).
In short, the only question that arises in this unequal duel is the extent of the Lions’ victory. We believe that this time it will be a much clearer affair and therefore apply a generous handicap of -2 to the Basques
Cayon – Statistics & current form
Club Deportivo Cayon has been in existence since 1915, but still has a marginal existence in Spanish amateur soccer. The club from Santa María de Cayón, a small municipality in the autonomous region of Cantabria in the north of Spain, played in the fifth tier last season, but was promoted to the fourth-tier Segunda Federación as champions this summer.
Here, Cayon compete in Grupo I, where the newly promoted team has had to learn the hard way and is in a direct relegation spot after 14 match days. But at least in the Copa del Rey, in which the soccer dwarf is competing for only the third time ever, there was a mild draw in the first round
For the first time in the club’s history in the 2nd round of the Copa del Rey
Cayon beat fourth-division side Ursaria 2:1 away from home. For the very first time in the club’s history, the Cantabrian club has reached the second round of Spain’s most important cup competition, where it promptly drew a real hammer.
The soccer dwarf has very little to lose in this home game. However, despite astronomical odds, there really isn’t much value to be found in Cayon v Athletic Bilbao betting on the underdog to progress. This is also due to the fact that the combined market value of the team is just over half a million euros
Won just two of their 14 league games in the Segunda Federación
On Sunday, the northern Spaniards managed the dress rehearsal for the Copa del Rey match of the century by dispatching RC Villalbés 3-0. In fact, however, it was only their second win in their 14th league game in the Segunda Federación. Only fellow promoted teams Arandina (nine) and Covadonga (ten) have picked up fewer points than Cayon (twelve).
However, at least it has not been down to the defense so far. In fact, the 16 goals conceded is the ninth-best figure in the Segunda Federación. With only twelve goals scored in 14 league games, it will be extremely difficult for the offense to create compelling scenes against an established first division team.
Predicted Cayon line-up:
Galnares – Montiel, Fernández, Ishida, Fernández – Villar, Turrado, Sanz, Alonso – Salas, Canizo
Athletic Bilbao – Statistics & current form
Athletic Bilbao have lost some of their reputation as a cup team in recent decades. However, with 40 Copa del Rey finals to their name (including 23 title wins), the Lions (“Lehoiak” in Basque) are still the second most successful Spanish team in this competition.
In the last four years, the Basques have always reached at least the semi-finals of the Copa del Rey. Accordingly, a strong run in the cup this season would suit the Red & Whites well, especially as things have otherwise been less exciting in the league of late. Bilbao finished eighth in the 2023/24 season and missed out on qualifying for a European competition
Fifth in the table after 15 matchdays
In his second year in charge under coach Ernesto Valverde, things are going all the better for the flagship club from the Basque Country, who are fifth in La Liga after 15 games and can even dream of Champions League football.
They have won eight of their 15 league games so far (four draws, three defeats) and are just three points behind fourth-placed Atletico Madrid. Just last weekend, the Lions dispatched Rayo Vallecano with a remarkably clear 4-0 victory
The third-best offense in La Liga
Accordingly, the odds are now also clearly in favor of the Basques for Cayon against Athletic Bilbao, who have not lost any of their last six competitive games (four wins, two draws).
The Red & Whites certainly did not cover themselves in glory in the first round of the Copa del Rey with a 2-1 away win at sixth division side Rubí. Since then, however, they have picked up ten points out of a possible twelve in La Liga. In their three recent wins over Villarreal (3-2), Celta Vigo (4-3) and Rayo Vallecano (4-0), Athletic Bilbao have also scored at least three times, giving Valverde’s side the third-best offense in La Liga.
Predicted Athletic Bilbao line-up:
Agirrezabala – Lekue, Nolaskoain, Eguiluz, Prados – Gómez, Herrera – Berenguer, Muniain, Ares – García
Cayon – Athletic Bilbao Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The two teams have never faced each other in a competitive match before. There is currently no head-to-head data available for Cayon v Athletic Bilbao that would influence our predictions
Cayon – Athletic Bilbao betting tip
With Cayon vs Athletic Bilbao, the odds of all bookmakers are clearly and unmistakably in favor of the Basques, who, as 23-time overall winners of the Copa del Rey, are always among the top favorites in the competition anyway. The Basques have also not lost any of their last six competitive games (four wins, two draws) and have scored at least three goals in three of their last four league games. Underdog Cayon, on the other hand, are in a direct relegation spot in the fourth-highest division
The fact that the Lions “only” won 2:1 at sixth-division side Rubí in the previous round and found it remarkably difficult against a similarly tough underdog must be in the back of their minds. In view of the Basques’ recent results, however, we expect a clear away win
