Will we get the first win under Diego Alonso at the third attempt?

In European club soccer, Diego Alonso has yet to make a name for himself as a coach. The 48-year-old Uruguayan was most recently in charge of his home country’s national team and previously gained experience as a coach in Mexico and Major League Soccer. Now the ex-professional, who was active as a professional in Spain for many years, is expected to get Sevilla FC back on track. After two games under his leadership, however, Diego Alonso is still waiting for his first win.

At best, that should change on Saturday evening. Then it comes to the Andalusian derby between Cadiz and Sevilla. For the tip on the away victory of the “Nervionenses” lower odds are offered. At the top, a 2.30 can currently be dusted off for the reigning Europa League champions to take three points away from home for the first time this season at their fourth attempt.

The task will be difficult, however, as the “Blanquirrojos” have an intense Champions League match from Tuesday in their bones and were also extremely challenged last weekend in the 1-1 draw against Real Madrid. However, because the relegation candidates from the south of Spain now await an even weaker opponent in terms of form, who last won a competitive match just under two months ago, the bookmakers are leaning towards a forecast in the direction of the far more prominent club in the Cadiz vs. Sevilla match.

Cadiz – Statistics & current form

Last year, Cadiz Club de Futbol narrowly managed to stay in the Spanish top flight. Despite having the weakest attack in the country’s top division and the third-worst goal difference (-23) after 38 matchdays, the team finished 14th in the final standings – two points ahead of the first relegation spot.

Since the financial resources are limited and one or the other player left the Andalusians in the summer, it was already clear before the start of the season that the goal in 2023/24 can only be ‘to stay in the league’. So far, this assessment has proven to be correct, as the team is ranked 15th after ten match days. The team is three points clear of the relegation zone. The form curve, however, is pointing downward and to an ominous extent.

Will Cadiz continue to slide down the table?

The last time coach Sergio’s team triumphed in La Liga was on September 01. Since then, there have been six successive league matches in which a total of just two points have come their way. Most recently, there have been three defeats in a row. The previous week saw a 2-0 defeat at Valencia FC, and before the international break there were two narrow defeats against top teams Atletico Madrid (3-2) and Girona (1-0). As many as seven of the nine points collected thus go back to the first four match days.

As in the previous season, the offense has been the biggest problem so far in 2023/24. Only the promoted team from Las Palmas has scored fewer goals than the relegation candidates from southern Spain. Los Amarillos have failed to score in five of their last ten league games, including three of their last four matches and their last two home games.

Therefore, it is definitely a conceivable approach to target odds for another offensive zero for the home side between Cadiz and Sevilla.

Predicted lineup of Cadiz:

Sevilla – statistics & current form

In their second La Liga year in a row, Sevilla FC are struggling to live up to their own expectations and keep up with the top flight. After the Andalusians were even in relegation fears at times last season, the current output of nine points from nine games also does not match the high expectations. Moreover, since the catch-up game is at Atletico Madrid, the current table also corresponds to the sad reality.

If we were to take only the previous performances in La Liga as a yardstick at this point and argue with the fact that the “Nervionenses” have only won two of their nine completed matches, it would be far too risky for us to make a prediction on the away win in the duel Cadiz vs. Sevilla. However, as mentioned in the introduction, there have been some changes on the bench at the multiple European Cup winners.

Diego Alonso is the new hopeful

Jose Luis Mendilibar was forced to take his hat off after a disappointing start to the season and was replaced by Uruguay’s Diego Alonso during the international break. In the first two matches under his responsibility, very positive approaches and a clear increase could be seen. Last weekend, the Red and Whites took a deserved point from the hottest title contenders in Spain, Real Madrid (1-1), and also during the week in the Champions League against Arsenal (1-2), the Andalusians showed a decent reaction.

Considering these promising performances and the fresh self-confidence that can be felt after just a few sessions together, the 13th in the table goes into the match as favorites in our eyes. Between Cadiz and Sevilla, the odds for the away win turn out to be quite high with a 2.30 in the top, which is why we place Value in it.

In addition, the top team from the south of the country has conceded only five goals in the last six league games and has the most stable defense in the lower half of the table. Against the harmless attack of the Andalusian opponents, this compactness could pay off positively.

Predicted Sevilla lineup:

Cadiz – Sevilla Direct comparison / H2H balance

Another argument that makes the pointer swing more in the direction of the visiting team on Saturday night is the direct comparison. 30 matches delivered the clubs from neighboring cities (about 100 km) in the Spanish top flight.

With 16 victories, ten draws and only four defeats, Sevilla FC has a clear lead. In the past three years together in the first division, the “Blanquirrojos” have recorded 16 out of a possible 18 points against Cadiz, including winning all three away games at the Nuevo Mirandilla.

Cadiz – Sevilla Tip

Similar to 2022/23, the Andalusian derby between Cadiz and Sevilla is all about the relegation battle this season. Admittedly, the reigning Europa League title holders can be expected to look upwards as the season progresses, but currently the 13th-placed side is level on points with 15th-placed Cadiz.

The fact that we still prefer a tip on the visiting team on Saturday evening between Cadiz and Sevilla is primarily due to the completed change of coach, which brought the first positive effects. Although the “Nervionenses” did not win any of the first two games under new coach Diego Alonso, good approaches could be seen both in the surprising point win against Real Madrid (1:1), as well as in the royal class in the narrow defeat against Arsenal (1:2).

With an inferior quality opponent waiting in La Liga this weekend, who have picked up two points from their last six games, have lost three in a row recently and have the second weakest attacking line-up in Spain’s top flight, we see Cadiz vs Sevilla as the most appealing value in the betting odds on the visiting treble.