Who will get the switch in the basement duel?
It’s a real basement clash at Turf Moor on Wednesday night as Burnley, currently 18th in the table, host 17th. The Clarets could move past the Hornets with a home win, climb into a non-relegation spot and ensure Watford slip below the line. However, Burnley have won just one of their 15 league games and have gone goalless in three in a row of late.
But because the Hornets have lost six of their last seven league games and are the only team in the Premier League not to have scored once in the 2021/22 season, the bookies are still leaning towards the home side ahead of the Burnley-Watford clash.
At least Wednesday night doesn’t really suit either team. Burnley have just one win from eleven home games in the Premier League this weekday. The visitors from Watford even have only two points from a possible 39 on record away from home. There is a lot to be said for a cautious approach and a long period of rest between two unsettled teams.
We therefore see the greatest value for Burnley against Watford in betting that no goal will be scored before minute 29:00.
Burnley – Statistics & current form
Burnley Football Club have won the English Championship twice in their history, in 1921 and 1960. Currently, the club from the east of Lancashire is in its sixth consecutive year in the Premier League.
In 2017/18, the Clarets finished as high as seventh in the final table and then narrowly missed out on the Europa League group stage in the play-offs, before just managing to stay in the league this summer in 17th place.
First one win in the first 15 league games
At present, Burnley are once again in acute danger of relegation under long-serving manager Sean Dyche, largely due to their failure to win games. The Clarets have only won one of their first 15 league games. The only other seasons in the club’s history with fewer victories were 1889/90 and 1979/80.
Although the club from the north of England already has a total of eleven points, because eight of the 15 league games ended in a draw, without further victories it is likely to be very tight in the end.
The second worst attack in the Premier League
Accordingly, it would be important for the Clarets to make a break for it in this basement duel if a win against a direct competitor could help them reach a non-relegation place on their own.
While the defence has been stable for the most part, conceding only 21 goals, the attack in particular will have to improve, with only 14 goals from 15 games, second only to last-placed Norwich. Accordingly, there is a lot to be said for betting on a low-scoring Burnley vs Watford match, in which early goals are also rather unlikely.
Predicted line-up of Burnley:
Pope – Taylor – Mee – Tarkowski – Lowton – McNeil – Cork – Westwood – Gudmundsson – Rodríguez – Wood
Last matches played by Burnley:
Premier League
12/12 2021 – Burnley 0 – 0 West Ham
12/04 2021 – Newcastle United 1 – 0 Burnley
12/01 2021 – Wolverhampton 0 – 0 Burnley
11/20 2021 – Burnley 3 – 3 Crystal Palace
11/06 2021 – Chelsea London 1 – 1 Burnley
Watford – Statistics & current form
Watford were relegated to the Championship in the summer of 2020 for the fifth consecutive year of Premier League affiliation, finishing 19th in the final table. There, however, the Hornets were able to escape posthaste as runners-up with only nine defeats in the entire 2021/22 season.
Under the legendary Claudio Ranieri, who once led Leicester City to the championship and joined Watford at the beginning of October, the aim now is to stay in the Championship. With four wins from the first 14 league games, the interim balance sheet is mixed.
The most defeats in the entire Premier League
Defensively in particular, the Herfordshire side have been too much to handle so far. Only Newcastle and Norwich have surpassed the 31 goals they have already conceded, making Watford the third-worst defensive team in the Premier League.
This is exactly what has led to the enormous number of defeats. The Hornets have already lost eleven times. Not even last-placed Norwich has lost so often (10 times). The team’s need for improvement seems to be correspondingly great, and they have only managed one draw.
The only team in the Premier League still without a clean sheet
Six defeats in the last seven league games for Watford alone. The Hornets are the only team in the Premier League not to have lost a single match.
Accordingly, the Herfordshire outfit come to Turf Moor in the underdog role.
Predicted Watford line-up:
Bachmann – Ngakia – Cathcart – Troost-Ekong – Femenía – Sissoko – Kucka – King – Cleverley – Hernández – Dennis
Last matches played by Watford:
Premier League
12/10 2021 – Brentford 2 – 1 Watford
12/04 2021 – Watford 1 – 3 Manchester City
12/01 2021 – Watford 1 – 2 Chelsea London
11/28 2021 – Leicester 4 – 2 Watford
11/20 2021 – Watford 4 – 1 Manchester United
Burnley – Watford Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 21 – 10 – 13
There have been a total of 44 meetings between the two teams so far and the Clarets lead the head-to-head comparison with 21 wins. Most recently, Burnley have not only remained unbeaten against Watford three times in a row (two wins, one draw), but also without conceding a goal.
Burnley – Watford betting tips
With Burnley against Watford, the prediction has to take into account that the home side certainly bring a certain defensive stability and are hard to beat at times. However, because the Clarets are too seldom offensively stinging, they have not been able to reward themselves time and again and have it so difficult especially because only a single victory among the 15 league games so far is on the books.
Watford, the team with the third most goals conceded and the most defeats in the Premier League, now visit Turf Moor. The Hornets must not put their heads through the wall, but act cautiously in this complicated away game. After all, a deficit would be difficult to overcome against defensively strong Clarets.
With this in mind, we are betting on no goal before 29:00, with odds of 1.83 available on Burnley vs Watford
